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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#131

Post by trekky1700 »

Aqueous wrote: post #30
nostrademons wrote: post #14

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

If you use a service like BitPay, which most BitCoin merchants too, you declare your price in dollars and the API uses the current exchange rate to convert it to BitCoin, minute-by-minute. The prices float up and down with the currency, so pricing is largely a non-problem. It makes rational sense for merchants to accept BitCoin and to keep some holdings in BitCoin because the price is increasing at such a rapid pace.…

If you're valuing everything in dollars, setting your price in dollars, and converting to and from dollars, why not just use dollars. I think this is the leap BitCoin is yet to make. When we no longer have to convert it and compare it to dollars.

It has loads of benefits over using the dollar, but a lot of those benefits are lost the second you're having it exchanged.

For instance, if I wanted to use bitcoin for contracting, my clients would have to convert their dollars into bitcoins, then I'd accept the bitcoins smoothly and easily, and then I'd have to exchange them (sell them) back for dollars to buy groceries and pay for the bus. Whereas right now, I get an Interac e-transfer and in less than 30 seconds I have money I can go to the store with, and it cost the sender only a dollar in fees. Sure, it's taxable, but the second I convert it from bit coins it's trackable anyway.

I definitely think this is a model we're going to see a lot more of in the future, but Bitcoin with it's thousand dollar and rising valuation and constant fluctuations is very difficult to get behind and actively use. And with the number of people, just of the people I know, who bought in hoping to cash out, there might be quite the tumble on the way. Who knows though, it will be interesting to watch, that's for sure.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#132

Post by kdeforche »

fleitz wrote: post #119
vasilipupkin wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For now, you cannot buy a pack of cigarettes with it, but as more vendords accept it, you will have apps on your phone that will let you easily do that. Look, bitcoin is a platform and it is in it's infant stages. But, it has huge potential. Potential does not mean odds of success are 100%

I don't think you understand even if the vendor accepts bitcoins, and even if I bring my laptop I still can't buy anything in under 5 minutes. https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time

Yes you can. You do not necessarily need a confirmation if you are willing to take a small risk (and a vendor accepts risks much bigger than that if he's in business).

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#133

Post by JoeAltmaier »

novalis78 wrote: post #129

Articles like this are actually quite revealing. It's incredibly interesting to watch "experts" comment on bitcoin as they study it, now, for the first time and have to think about it. Like a lot of people my initial impression was that of scam (it lasted for three hours) then realization of the ingenious concept with the thought that "this will not survive long enough to become what it is intended for". So I kept se…

I don't get that; runs and crashes means your confidence is improved; that bitcoins have 'proved themselves'? I would argue just the opposite. No responsible financial counselor would recommend something as volatile as bitcoins; no business can survive the busts ("Just wait a few months Mr Vendor; my money will be worth something again then I promise!")

So its used by - who? Speculators and suckers?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#134

Post by shubb »

elwin wrote: post #114
fleitz wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please explain how bitcoin can discern vicarious liability. You're still going to need lawyers. Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official…

> Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official looking seal, you have some random numbers. Here's an imaginary possibility. A hundred and fi…

I think in practice, the first time someone needed to do this, a bunch of high grade academic cryptographers would acts as expert witnesses pro-bono. From there, it would be like a hacking case - an expert explains the issue to the jury, who take a decision. Assuming it is technically sound, bitchain certification would win.

Subsequent cases would be able to use the precedent, and win with less interesting experts.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#135

Post by conanbatt »

kdeforche wrote: post #126
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

Sounds like nonsense to me: if you buy 1 BTC from me, then at the same time I've sold 1 BTC? That makes it by definition as equally hard (or easy) to buy as to sell?

Depends on who is in the middle of that transaction and how long that one takes to fullfill that operation, in this case, exchanges.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#136

Post by iand »

jkarni wrote: post #124

One thing I never quite understood, but haven't really heard mentioned, is what makes this instance of a digital currency special. If I were to start another pool of bitcoins, with it's own mining etc. (like say, litecoin, but not necessarily technologically different from bitcoins) is the only disadvantage, from the perspective of adoption, that it wasn't the original, and is a little less prominent? If so, I can em…

The computing power directed at bitcoin is already huge. You would need to persuade those miners (who also verify transactions don't forget) to switch to your new coin. If they stop mining bitcoins then they fall behind their competitors. They then have to swallow the risk of mining a new coin that has no users yet.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#137

Post by kdeforche »

TylerE wrote: post #20
nostrademons wrote: post #14

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

Also, with gold, there is intrinsic value beyond the monetary - jewelry use, or in these moderns days in electronics. That provides a value floor. Bitcoin doesn't have that.

For bitcoin it's easy to argue that it's useful for almost zero-cost transactions, world wide, with relatively short confirmation times. Other applications are being invented: cryptographic proof-of-existence (on top of the block chain) or perhaps also distributed/anonymous DNS.

You really need to see it as a powerful idea, not just a speculative asset

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#138

Post by LiweiZ »

Anyway, Bitcoin could be a new way to "print" more money. I'm lack of knowledge of it. But it must be interesting to know where the Bitcoin shown in one's balance sheet. Asset? Or just another kind of fiat money? Either way, Bitcoin provides more money on market. Hmmmmm

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#139

Post by chockablock »

brador wrote: post #107
Aqueous wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are applying old-world money ideas to something that is so new that we don't have useful models yet for deciding how it will behave, thinking that they do apply without loss of content. The rules of supply and demand apply, sure, but none of the other common-sense intuitions about how money works. BitCoins don't have any resistance to movement, or very little. Physical money does. This means the difference betwe…

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

Howso? If it's easy to buy BTC with USD, doesnt't that imply successful liquidation of BTC?
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