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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#101

Post by stevewilhelm »

cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

> It may fail as "money" (in a narrow sense) and still succeed as a global platform.

I think that was the author's point.

For example, Paypal, Amazon or the IRS could announce tomorrow they will accept payment in Bitcoins but peg their BTC/USD exchange rate to one.

Speculation would all but stop and Bitcoins would become a transaction platform.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#102

Post by vasilipupkin »

fleitz wrote: post #78
cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Please explain how bitcoin can discern vicarious liability. You're still going to need lawyers. Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official…

For now, you cannot buy a pack of cigarettes with it, but as more vendords accept it, you will have apps on your phone that will let you easily do that.

Look, bitcoin is a platform and it is in it's infant stages. But, it has huge potential. Potential does not mean odds of success are 100%

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#104

Post by mindstab »

stevewilhelm wrote: post #101
cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

> It may fail as "money" (in a narrow sense) and still succeed as a global platform. I think that was the author's point. For example, Paypal, Amazon or the IRS could announce tomorrow they will accept payment in Bitcoins but peg their BTC/USD exchange rate to one. Speculation would all but stop and Bitcoins would become a transaction platform.

No, because no one would give them bitcoins at 1:1 and they can't magic up their own, they 'd have to buy them at market price and then sell them at a hilarious loss.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#105

Post by cryowaffle »

stevewilhelm wrote: post #101
cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

> It may fail as "money" (in a narrow sense) and still succeed as a global platform. I think that was the author's point. For example, Paypal, Amazon or the IRS could announce tomorrow they will accept payment in Bitcoins but peg their BTC/USD exchange rate to one. Speculation would all but stop and Bitcoins would become a transaction platform.

This makes no sense. If, say the IRS, pegged the exchange at 1 what difference does that make? There are not infinite bitcoins and the IRS certainly wouldn't have all of them. People VALUE bitcoins which is why they pay a lot of USD for them.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#106

Post by Cort3z »

Bitcoin won't fail because the criminal underground have accepted it. It is the perfect way to pay for drugs or other illegal activities. No way to stop, no way to trace. They reduce the risk of acting out their criminal affairs. They no longer need to move money across boarders, thus basically halving the risk of smuggling things.

Power to the people, right?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#107

Post by brador »

Aqueous wrote: post #83
cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

They are applying old-world money ideas to something that is so new that we don't have useful models yet for deciding how it will behave, thinking that they do apply without loss of content. The rules of supply and demand apply, sure, but none of the other common-sense intuitions about how money works. BitCoins don't have any resistance to movement, or very little. Physical money does. This means the difference betwe…

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#108

Post by stormbrew »

fleitz wrote: post #78
cs702 wrote: post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Please explain how bitcoin can discern vicarious liability. You're still going to need lawyers. Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official…

Actually, you have an expert (or more than one expert) who can testify to the nature of the block chain and the difficulty and expense involved in altering its history.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#109

Post by drcube »

Bootvis wrote: post #88
drcube wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Price fluctuations in the value of currency" is the definition of inflation/deflation. Monetary policy can cause inflation, but it's not the only way inflation can occur. Wikipedia: "In economics, inflation is a persistent increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently…

I'm not saying that Friedman is right but this is a thorny issue in economics: Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. —Milton Friedman, 1963

Sure, it's a monetary phenomenon, but that doesn't mean it always comes from monetary policy. In fact, the big reason monetary policy exists is to control inflation. Without monetary policy, inflation and deflation depend solely on the production of the economy compared to the relatively fixed supply of money. Which is what will happen if bitcoin takes off. Growing economy + fixed money supply = deflation.

So the GP was wrong when he said there can be no inflation by definition once all the bitcoins have been mined and the supply is fixed. Deflation (negative inflation) is pretty much guaranteed with a fixed money supply. There's more stuff to buy with the same amount of money, so things will cost less.

Consistent deflation will be very upsetting for the status quo. I'm not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing, but when the incentives shift towards keeping your money in a shoebox, and against using banks, taking or giving out loans, investing and spending, that's going to be a huge change.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#110

Post by caublestone »

At Soylent, we have been accepting Bitcoin using coinbase. The decision to do so was based on marketing and the anticipation that not many people would actually use Bitcoin and we wouldn't have a large risk exposure. To date only 130 people out of 12,000 have pre-ordered Spylent using Bitcoin. Our total risk exposure was less than 1% of total revenue. The recent rocket ship rise in a Bitcoin valuation has valued our Bitcoins at 10% of total cash from revenue. So far, the decision to accept Bitcoin has been a tremendous success.

The recent rise in Bitcoin valuation is speculation based on merchant trends. Well established merchants in Asia are starting to accept Bitcoin. The total valuation of Bitcoin is still around $15Bn. The total value of annual US domestic cash flow is somewhere around $15T. Think about the potential of Bitcoin. Highly unlikely? Absolutely! But think about if you woke up tomorrow and Amazon or Apple announced that they would start accepting Bitcoin? What do you think the valuation would be?

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