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China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

marginalrevolution.com

41–45 of 45 posts

Re: China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

#41
post #25
post #23

This shows surprising naivety about what is happening in China. To generalise massively, Chinese aren't trying to move money out of China. Instead, they are trying to find any safe store of value, because they don't trust their banks. Chinese are desperate for any way to save money, because the four-grandparent policy (and no pension) means they need money in old age. The optimal solution for them is overseas real es…

This doesn't make sense to me. Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. Right now it's a speculative investment. Either it will succeed and demand for bitcoin will go even higher or it will fail and it will be worth nothing. It's like investing in some risky VC fund. It makes sense for people to have wildly different ideas about potential and risk, but it makes no sense to expect it to just stay…

Its an awesome store of value.

Bitcoin, like gold, is it's own counterparty. If you own bitcoin, you own it irrevocably unless you choose to give it to someone else.

Combine that with the fact that it is globally accessible, globally transferrable, and incredibly low cost to keep secure and you've got something which disrupts 5000 years of financial history.

Re: China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

#42
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes perfect sense -- but only if you look at it objectively. The speculators will trade on the hourly waxing and waning exchange rates, but the savers will look at 52-week moving averages. If you judge BTC simply by the latter, and have the patience for re-evaluating your BTC finances annually or bi-annually, then you'd be in a pretty good spot. Sure it fluctuates an uncomfortable amount on a regular basis, but…

Not at all, if "...or it will fail and it will be worth nothing" is a possible scenario. If you buy every week, any catastrophic event that makes bitcoin worthless would still wipe out your retirement savings before your bi-annual reevaluation is due.

[deleted]

Re: China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

#43
post #25
post #23

This shows surprising naivety about what is happening in China. To generalise massively, Chinese aren't trying to move money out of China. Instead, they are trying to find any safe store of value, because they don't trust their banks. Chinese are desperate for any way to save money, because the four-grandparent policy (and no pension) means they need money in old age. The optimal solution for them is overseas real es…

This doesn't make sense to me. Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. Right now it's a speculative investment. Either it will succeed and demand for bitcoin will go even higher or it will fail and it will be worth nothing. It's like investing in some risky VC fund. It makes sense for people to have wildly different ideas about potential and risk, but it makes no sense to expect it to just stay…

Moving everything into bitcoin doesn't make a lot of sense. Diversifying into bitcoin is more likely to - I don't see tremendous reason Chinese housing prices and Chinese bank solvency would be positively correlated to bitcoin price, though I could very well be missing something (simple or complex).

Re: China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

#44
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't make sense to me. Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. Right now it's a speculative investment. Either it will succeed and demand for bitcoin will go even higher or it will fail and it will be worth nothing. It's like investing in some risky VC fund. It makes sense for people to have wildly different ideas about potential and risk, but it makes no sense to expect it to just stay…

Its an awesome store of value. Bitcoin, like gold, is it's own counterparty. If you own bitcoin, you own it irrevocably unless you choose to give it to someone else. Combine that with the fact that it is globally accessible, globally transferrable, and incredibly low cost to keep secure and you've got something which disrupts 5000 years of financial history.

You own it only while you remember the password. Gold won't just disappear one day though your memory might.

Re: China and the soaring price of Bitcoin

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its an awesome store of value. Bitcoin, like gold, is it's own counterparty. If you own bitcoin, you own it irrevocably unless you choose to give it to someone else. Combine that with the fact that it is globally accessible, globally transferrable, and incredibly low cost to keep secure and you've got something which disrupts 5000 years of financial history.

You own it only while you remember the password. Gold won't just disappear one day though your memory might.

unless you forget where you buried it
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