Live data from Hacker News

The first Bitcoin post on HN

news.ycombinator.com

261–270 of 302 posts

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#261
post #7

That four-year-old submission has just two comments: one expressing doubt, one expressing optimism. Interestingly, despite growing worldwide adoption of Bitcoin, comments about it on HN continue to be more or less evenly split between doubters and optimists. And I wouldn't be surprised if comments to this submission are evenly split between those same two camps. No amount of evidence or reasoning seems to persuade ei…

But it is not that black and white, is it? While it is quite clear that Bitcoin has "value" as long as people are willing to trade it (i.e., indefinitely), there is still no reason to assume that it will ever stop having these extreme fluctuations. To the contrary, I'd say that, as time progresses, we observe Bitcoin having the same problems that the gold standard had, mixed with an additional proneness to speculatio…

>there is still no reason to assume that it will ever stop having these extreme fluctuations.

Think of the difference in waves occurring in a big pool vs a little pool, when a person of the same weight dive in it. In a little pool, a person dives, the waves are proportionally very big. In a big pool, the person diving hardly affects the water in its totality.

The same applies to Bitcoin. The more each coin is worth, the less big buyers and sellers will impact the overall market.

So, if Bitcoin had a total market capitalisation of, say, 10 trilliion, then even big players would only affect a few Satoshi as they buy in and out of the market, therefore the fluctuations would decrease.

Of course, there's still be people who had held on to their coins from the very beginning, so their leverage on the total market would be big, still. But such people would be very few and far between, because everyone has a selling point. Also, it wouldn't be in their interest to rock the boat very much, just as it isn't in any central bank to buy too much gold in one go, because their movements affect the market price much more than people buying and selling at the margin.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#262
post #259
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first two are covered under the word "legally". If your government doesn't allow something it's illegal. It might sound great to frame that as applying to things we all love like "speech" and "self-defense" but it applies equally to all things illegal like "laundering money" , "hiring an assassin", "buying heroin" or "acquiring a stockpile of illegal explosives to blow up an old folks home". The last of your line…

I guess I don't understand. First of all these kinds of transactions need a vehicle like bitcoin, because using cash introduces a lot of middle men that dramatically decrease the efficiency of illegal transactions. Second of all there is no way to send money right now for legal transactions without also introducing a bunch of similar middle men. I think square cash is maybe free right now in a promotional sort of way…

This post seems like you don't understand the Bitcoin protocol or the exchanges.

The current BTC trade goes as: You --> some money handler --> exchange --> bitcoin --> a bunch of nodes which take a cut for processing a transaction (and 20 minutes to hit the network) --> exchange --> another money handler --> recipient.

What part of that seems like it has less middlemen? And oh yeah, very few of those parties are beholden to any kind of regulation or ability to seek remission if something is not as advertised.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#263
post #262
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I don't understand. First of all these kinds of transactions need a vehicle like bitcoin, because using cash introduces a lot of middle men that dramatically decrease the efficiency of illegal transactions. Second of all there is no way to send money right now for legal transactions without also introducing a bunch of similar middle men. I think square cash is maybe free right now in a promotional sort of way…

This post seems like you don't understand the Bitcoin protocol or the exchanges. The current BTC trade goes as: You --> some money handler --> exchange --> bitcoin --> a bunch of nodes which take a cut for processing a transaction (and 20 minutes to hit the network) --> exchange --> another money handler --> recipient. What part of that seems like it has less middlemen? And oh yeah, very few of those parties are beho…

The average credit card processing cost for a retail business where cards are swiped is roughly 1.95% - 2%. The average cost for card-not-present businesses, such as online shops, is roughly 2.30% - 2.50%.

However microtransactions cost even more than this and escalate as you have more small transactions.

Once you have bitcoins the transaction costs are now 0.

Getting USD to bitcoins is obviously hard right now because it is not really a currency yet, but somewhere between 0.2-0.5% is probably what it will end up being to convert USD to BTC, however once that has been done all subsequent transactions are now free forever.

I expect that bitcoins will be a lot like withdrawing cash from atms in the future except you will be able to do it from your computer or phone on your banking website.

Also if reputable dealers like amazon and steam were charging less for items bought via btc transactions I think a lot of people would switch over really fast.(This is of course after btc stabilizes once a bunch more money enters the market)

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#264

Here's the first popular post (with 20+ comments) referencing Bitcoin on HN: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1532670 - Bitcoin P2P Cryptocurrency | 1217 days ago | 24 comments Some other early, popular posts about Bitcoin: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708 - Imagine your computer as a wallet full of Bitcoins| 1088 days ago | 36 comments http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1998144 - How to Get Started wi…

I love the comments by illumin8 in that first one. It describes the seemingly only legitimate threat at the moment for the future of BitCoin (long term). I'm suspect that governments are now probably more interested in the 'monitoring' of the system rather than governing. In the case of Silk Road, feds seem to have done their homework when it comes to tracking down the money. But they cracked down SR, and BitCoin dip…

It may sound like a contradiction to you, but that certainly doesn't mean that anonymous currency has to be a contradiction.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#265
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Bitcoin is different in that is the purest form of a fiat currency in the sense that it is backed by nothing and thus has no intrinsic value whatsoever. It's backed by the tremendous amount of electricity required to run the transaction processing network (ie. "mining"). Remember this is the world's largest distributed supercomputer. BTC is a proxy for electricity, that's why mining equipment ended up at ASICs so…

The USD is backed by the material value of everything USA, at a minimum. It's practically impossible for the USD to go to absolute zero, there's still some gold in the reserves and oil and mining to be done at absolute worst. Obviously our debts exceed this, but that's a different issue. Say everyone cashed in at once - they'd get a percentage of our debts, not zero, since there's still material value. You can't "und…

US Debts do not exceed the value of everything in the US.

They barely exceed 1 year's economic productivity from the US (~15.58 trillion USD).

And since the US is not going to stop being a country any time soon (and such a thing would be a calamity which makes national debt completely irrelevant anyway) it has a very long-term ability to make repayments.

And this is ignoring the fact that each year the US basically reinvests heavily, since GDP grows while the debt does not (necessarily). For example, current GDP growth of 2.2% means the US GDP increases by ~$344 billion per year. Conversely the value of all US debt per year decreases due to inflation - currently about 1.2% meaning the US debt effectively decreases by about $188 billion USD per year.

This is all somewhat beside the point, but it pains me to see people proposing the US has debts exceeding its capital and productive value as an entire country.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't pay US taxes in GBP. GBP is a currency.

You can pay GB taxes in GBP though. Why must you assume taxes = US taxes?

The point is that wherever you happen to live you can't use most currencies to pay your taxes. If I live in France, Dollars, Bitcoins, and Pounds are all the same in this respect.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#267
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To explain: The fear that often is associated with deflationary currency (like bitcoin) is that no one will spend it, because waiting always gets you a slightly better deal. And if that happens the economy will grind to a halt with everyone waiting to spend. The point of my second statement is that we have examples of cases where even though every month your money buys more, people still do buy things.

There may be specific examples (HDTV) where waiting means your money buys more, but overall the more you wait the less your money is worth in the economy due to inflation. Technology making products cheaper is not an example of deflation. Inflation and deflation pertain only to currency not products. If however you hold your currency and everyday its worth more, besides the bare essentials there is barely an incentiv…

    Inflation and deflation pertain only to currency not products.
Inflation is when your currency buys you less stuff tomorrow than today. Deflation is when it buys you more. Falling prices due to efficiency gains caused some deflation during the industrial revolution, and technology making products cheaper is definitely a kind of deflation. From Wikipedia:

    Growth deflation: an enduring decrease in the real cost of
    goods and services as the result of technological progress,
    accompanied by competitive price cuts, resulting in an
    increase in aggregate demand.  A structural deflation existed
    from 1870s until the cycle upswing that started in 1895. The
    deflation was caused by the decrease in the production and
    distribution costs of goods. It resulted in competitive price
    cuts when markets were oversupplied. The mild inflation after
    1895 was attributed to the increase in gold supply that had
    been occurring for decades.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#268
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use Dropbox as a glorified large email attachment distribution system, touching only the web interface. Edit: obviously not clear enough, I'll try again: Is it true that ' You need to install propietary software to use it '? No.

The web interface is proprietary too.

I don't get what you mean, but you can use their API to make your own front end.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#269
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of a currency lies entirely in the perception of that value. I don't consider bitcoin different from a traditional currency, except that its rate of production is known in advance. It will keep having value because by now enough people think it does.

No. If somebody sues me, and I offer to pay my debt in bitcoins, the court may refuse to recognise this payment. But if I pay in the national currency, the court is required to recognise this payment. This is part of the legal system in every country. It's one of the mechanisms governments use to force citizens to use the national currency.

Sounds like a sensible notion too, otherwise I'd be paying all my fines with Reddit karma.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#270
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> People are voluntarily paying them for their coins because they, for whatever reason, value them. You can say that's silly but it's not like you are being forced to buy bitcoins or anything. I'm saying it would be a bad idea to adopt as a de-facto currency, that's all. >> Isn't the same true for any other finite resource? Everything will deflate/increase in value relative to rest of the economy. Currency isn't and…

>Currency isn't and shouldn't be a resource, it's a medium of exchange. Well why not? A medium of exchange is a resource. There are exchanges and markets for currencies, people speculate on them, etc. They are definitely a resource.

Resource in the sense that the item in question has some inherent value. If I can't exchange Bitcoin for anything, then Bitcoins have zero value. If I can't exchange rice for anything, that rice will still have some value to me.

It's important to realize that all currencies, including Bitcoin and the USD, are only as valuable as the stuff I can buy with them. There's no point in having a million dollars, if I can't buy anything with it. That makes currencies distinctly different from "resources".

Post reply on HN