TWTR • Hacker News Board

Re: TWTR

#31

Post by nikcub » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 4:56 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #4

arjunnarayan wrote: post #3

If it stays at $46, that's a gigantic fuck up. They left a billion dollars on the table, and that's borderline breach of fiduciary duty. Of course, we have to wait and see what it settles at, and it's a little premature to heap scorn just yet. But the initial reaction is it looks like they overreacted to the Facebook IPO debacle (in my book, Facebook did the best thing possible for the company and extracted as much v…

Can someone who knows about these things explain why no one else does auctions like Google did? I mean, these guys are supposed to be about markets, right, so why the heck is the price decided by some kind of "central committee"?!

Google's auction didn't work, they marginalized wall st. and the banks ended up rigging the bidding. While it only popped 20% on opening day, the stock was up 4x in a matter of months.

Re: TWTR

#32

Post by pstuart » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 4:57 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #5

I have to admit I was wrong. I assumed it would flatline like FB. Congrats to the Twitter team!

Let's see where it is in 6 months after people realize that there's no solid plan to make enough money to justify the pricing.

edit: sure, maybe I'm jealous that I'm not raking in that IPO cash, but having gone through the dotcom bubble I think some cynicism is warranted.

Re: TWTR

#33

Post by the_watcher » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 4:58 PM UTC

sc90 wrote: post #22

arjunnarayan wrote: post #3

If it stays at $46, that's a gigantic fuck up. They left a billion dollars on the table, and that's borderline breach of fiduciary duty. Of course, we have to wait and see what it settles at, and it's a little premature to heap scorn just yet. But the initial reaction is it looks like they overreacted to the Facebook IPO debacle (in my book, Facebook did the best thing possible for the company and extracted as much v…

Unlike Facebook, none of Twitters employees and VC's are selling, so no internal pressure to grab every last dollar.

There was an employee lockup of Facebook stock, if I remember correctly, so Facebook employees were not selling.

Please correct me if I misunderstood something.

Re: TWTR

#34

Post by the_watcher » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 4:59 PM UTC

Geee wrote: post #30

And... this marks the beginning of the end for Twitter as we know it.

Why do you say that? Facebook has been fine post-IPO.

Re: TWTR

#35

Post by AsymetricCom » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:00 PM UTC

joezydeco wrote: post #28

nhangen wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose it depends on who you are trying to please. If you are Twitter, it's a major loss. If you give a shit about bankers (most of us do not), then you win.

But the bankers come up with those magical "buy/hold/sell" recommendations that everyone else listens to and panic-sells when their advice says so. Or "oops, they missed our magically predicted revenue by one penny per share". It's all part of the game.

Which says to me that bankers are probably still holding a lot of TWTR. If that doesn't change short-term, it could poison the social network.

Re: TWTR

#36

Post by the_watcher » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:01 PM UTC

I'm not an expert in the stock market, and the only stock I own is Facebook (which I bought a long time ago), but I am confused as to why Facebook is dropping today while there is so much enthusiasm for Twitter. Buying Twitter is basically betting on mobile advertising, which Facebook is the clear leader of. Is it possibly related to people with Facebook stock selling some to get in on Twitter? Are they entirely unrelated?

Re: TWTR

#37

Post by samolang » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:02 PM UTC

goshx wrote: post #23

stevewilhelm wrote: post #13

Yahoo! Finance is more up to date. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=twtr&ql=1

Came here to point that out. I wonder why google's is so far behind.

15 minute delay is standard. I'm wondering why yahoo is so ahead.

Re: TWTR

#38

Post by cft » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:03 PM UTC

Can someone advise what's the best way to buy derivatives (etrade,scottstrade, etc): the fastest way to open an account, the best order execution times? I want to invest some money to short this.

Re: TWTR

#39

Post by grecy » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:04 PM UTC

kilovoltaire wrote: post #18

legohead wrote: post #12

I don't know how these things typically work.. it started out at 46, now it's below, ~45, but it says +19.66 (75.62%)? Is that because that's the highest it was today? I would expect the +/- to be against the starting amount at any time...

That's because its pre-opening (IPO) price was $26. So for everyone who got shares before the public trading, their stocks are way up. (This is also why people are saying that the IPO price was set way too low; insiders make tons of money but Twitter itself raises much less money.)

Is there any way for the lay man to get in on an IPO like this, or is it purely for insiders? (I'm thinking about the next one...)

Re: TWTR

#40

Post by generj » Thu, Nov 07, 2013, 5:05 PM UTC

Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #20

raganwald wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you say for a fact that if they priced at $46 that people would have bought at $46? Markets are highly irrational.

> Markets are highly irrational. That depends which recent Nobel Memorial Prize winner you believe.

In this world of quant-bots, I don't know how anyone can argue that we have a fully rational market.

My understanding is that much of the progress in economics has been merging economics with psychology to identify rational failures.