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Bitcoins reached $300

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71–80 of 134 posts

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#71
post #44
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it'll be needed until/unless bitcoin stablises enough that people start quoting prices in bitcoin. Right now, advertising a computer at 3 bitcoins is not practical. The value of those bitcoins change to fast.

> Right now, advertising a computer at 3 bitcoins is not practical. Only if you're seeing the "real" value as the USD. No-one says "$100 is meaningless because its conversion to Thai Baht varies so wildly". The only thing that will kill bitcoin is stability without utility.

> No-one says "$100 is meaningless because its conversion to Thai Baht varies so wildly".

I would, if I lived in Thailand. I wouldn't quote prices in dollars.

Sure, what really matters is how well bitcoin price is correlated with food, labour etc. - things you actually need. But those are pretty closely correlated with USD in practice, and bitcoin is not well correlated with them.

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#72
post #60
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Most of the people of the world can't really save either. Cash loses value over time, gold is hard to validate and keep safe, and is even banned in lots of places. Bitcoin to the rescue! Now everyone can start saving, and even be rewarded for that. I could go on all…

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Yeah cause internet access and a modern computer are waaaaay more common than bank accounts or prepaid credit cards....

... Children? I would've loved Bitcoin at age 12.

According to wolfram alpha, there are 1.871 billion children age 15 or younger: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+under+15

Those 1.871 billion children literally determine the future. And all of them can currently use bitcoin for buying anything available via bitcoin. That includes Humble Bundles, for example, not just drugs. Though admittedly they'll still just pirate most videogames rather than buy them. But they won't be able to pirate MMO's, and it's a matter of time before MMOs begin accepting bitcoins.

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#73
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It increases 50% in a week, and you don't consider that volatile?

You know, its the oscillations == volatility philosophy. Of course only should only look at daily graphs no older than two days. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zigDailyztgSz...

I don't think philosophy has much to do here. Volatility is a financial term with a precise, mathematical definition.

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#74
post #50

In this thread - people confusing up arrows with "good". (Rapid deflation is not a great thing for a currency in general)

I'm wondering, is it as bad for a currency that still rather rarely get's used exclusively? I don't have a lot of economic knowledge (only what I learned in high school, though one of my majors was economics & politics; Germany, school until 13th grade) but it just seems to me that not all the normal rules would apply in the case of bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#76

Looking at the chart it doesn't seem as volatile as mainstream media leads us to believe.

Your average currency pair moves less than 1% on almost all days. Moves above 1% are rare and days with moves of several percent are extremely rare and occur a couple of times a year at most. BTC, on the other hand, may be worth anything from 250 to 60 USD a day. That is the reason why BTC as a currency is of little use. You cannot do serious business with something like this unless you immediately hedge all of your exposure. In a larger organisation that would be impossible and, on the other hand, only means that someone else is holding the bag for the next crash.

BTC is driven by little to no fundamental data. Its exchange rate is subject to pure mass psychology which is why it repeatedly goes through boom and bust cycles. This is not going to stop unless something like a real BTC economy of non-trivial size develops. But I think it very unlikely for this to happen for the aforementioned reason of volatility and the fact that BTC is by design deflationary. BTC's deflationary properties would choke off any such economic system that is based on this crypto currency.

All in all, I am of the opionion that BTC is an interesting experiment and a case study in speculative behaviour. The difference compared to former manias (see [1] for historic examples) is that in BTC the process plays itself out at an extremely accelarated pace. Maybe this is even what the creator(s) intended. Maybe they created a purely electronic ecosystem of speculative behaviour to be able to study and better understand the phenomenon of financial bubbles. This would certainly explain the 'Satoshi' entity's non-interference.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions...

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#77

Looking at the chart it doesn't seem as volatile as mainstream media leads us to believe.

Your average currency pair moves less than 1% on almost all days. Moves above 1% are rare and days with moves of several percent are extremely rare and occur a couple of times a year at most. BTC, on the other hand, may be worth anything from 250 to 60 USD a day. That is the reason why BTC as a currency is of little use. You cannot do serious business with something like this unless you immediately hedge all of your…

This is the kind of response I wanted to invoke - that you for your insight!

I guess the closest 'real' currency examples would be something like http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ZWD&to=USD&view=10Y

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#78
post #60
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Most of the people of the world can't really save either. Cash loses value over time, gold is hard to validate and keep safe, and is even banned in lots of places. Bitcoin to the rescue! Now everyone can start saving, and even be rewarded for that. I could go on all…

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Yeah cause internet access and a modern computer are waaaaay more common than bank accounts or prepaid credit cards....

It is. In fact I have never seen a prepaid credit card. And you can use Bitcoin from your phone, no need for a desktop PC. Yes, third world countries have phones. Will I have to explain this to every American? Besides this affects first world countries too. A lot of people in first world countries can't have a bank account, but there is wifi everywhere, and even the homeless have phones (I never understood why. A marketer told me it's related the reverse pyramid of needs or something like that).

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#79
post #60
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Most of the people of the world can't really save either. Cash loses value over time, gold is hard to validate and keep safe, and is even banned in lots of places. Bitcoin to the rescue! Now everyone can start saving, and even be rewarded for that. I could go on all…

Most of the people of the world can't really have a bank account, let alone be eligible for a credit (card). With Bitcoin you only need internet access. Yeah cause internet access and a modern computer are waaaaay more common than bank accounts or prepaid credit cards....

They are, if you define modern cellphones as a "modern computer".

Digging around, I found they're almost equal actually, and cellphone users vastly outnumber bank account holders (cell phone users exceed toilet access !!!).

50% of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution.

60% of adults worldwide have internet access, with 39% having home internet access (the remainder having shared or limited internet access).

80% of adults have cell phone access.

Sources:

http://econ.worldbank.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

http://www.gallup.com/poll/159815/home-internet-access-remai...

newsfeed.time.com/2013/03/25/more-people-have-cell-phones-than-toilets-u-n-study-shows/

Re: Bitcoins reached $300

#80
it fails as a store of value and therefore is not money which is obvious given its volatility. Bitcoin is best described as a computer programme which sells itself on features written to provide assets to those with the mindset desiring such assets - libertarians, those anti fiat currencies, Austrian economists (more recently now gold is letting them down) etc... Such mindset are sure to only increase given the Wall St ownership of the Federal reserve so Bitcoin will continue to sell until its technology is made obsolte. If that takes years then bitcoin $100,000 soon enough but if tomorrow then hello bitcoin $0
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