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Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

roymurdock.com

41–50 of 128 posts

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#41
post #33

With WebRTC, can someone make a ephemeral peer-to-peer, one-to-one or one-to-many messenger? I think that would be more private. Sever the 3rd party.

I'm not sure most people would grasp the difference between a company that says it doesn't keep your data and a company that says it can't keep your data.

Probably not, but it could still be useful for privacy minded individuals. Especially if it was open sourced on GitHub.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#43
post #31

Irrespective of present revenue, the acquisition value of Snapchat to Facebook, Google, Yahoo and co basically puts a floor on the valuation. E.g. if I am an investor and I think Google would pay $5B for Snapchat, it makes sense to buy it at $4B. So I guess the trick is not to figure out how much revenue Snapchat will generate on its own, but rather how additional revenue Google could generate if it owned Snapchat (w…

I address this in the article: Snapchat doesn't want to be acquired because it thinks its creating its own new market where it has 100% market share.

I agree with you that Snapchat is intrinsically worthless, hence the title of the article.

Even if it was eventually acquired, how could the service be augmented to funnel users into a parent company (Google, Facebook) when the very nature of the application is to create media, then delete it. This builds no links or references to outside sources, no galleries of images, no way to generate ad revenue.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#44
post #19

I'll suggest a simpler framework for valuing Snapchat: probability of becoming another Facebook. If you think it has a 5% chance, then it should be valued at around 5 billion (relative to Facebook's 100 billion).

I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of peop…

i feel that there is a 100% guarantee that there will be another facebook.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#45
post #10
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snapchat is not only not anonymous, but it's a pretty poor platform with a significant number of past security flaws. About six months ago their API was exposing cellphone numbers for any username (to their credit, when I pointed this out to them they did patch it pretty quickly). Hardly private.

Even if they're not good at it, at least their point is privacy. That's already better than most chat tools.

Ephemeral messages is not the same as privacy. A service based on privacy wouldn't publicly show who you communicate with most often.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of peop…

I agree. For better or for worse Facebook is the World of Warcraft of general purpose social networks, anything trying to go head to head with it will lose. It'll probably die off eventually but what replaces it will probably look nothing like it and will exist in a much different climate.

I'm betting on Orkut.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#47
I thought I was taking crazy pills when Zynga got valued more than Electronic Arts. Yeah, a company with games that practically aren't even games which makes money via spammy offers, is worth more than a multi-decade-old company with a gigantic catalog of games, which people actually pay cash for, spread out over every continent and every console, handheld, and PC. When I saw that story, I was like "do any of the journalists on the story actually stop and think for a second?"

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#48
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of peop…

i feel that there is a 100% guarantee that there will be another facebook.

I think it is unlikely that there will be another Facebook. Will there be a big social media website if Facebook dies? Probably yes, and in the near future it will likely be Google+.

So if there was no Facebook would another Facebook clone take it's place? Intuitive answer is yes, until you start thinking. How did Facebook got so big? It was best product on the market. So now Facebook is dead, what happened to Facebook? Is there a reason it died, if Facebook could not survive, how will it clones will not only survive, but thrive?

So here I would like to make a small prediction. The only way there will be another Facebook, if someone would make something better. Something which will either do things that Facebook does better - and hence kill it off, or something that will open entire new market.

TL:DR If you want to get big you can't be another Facebook: you either must be different or better.

Re: Snapchat is Intrinsically Worthless

#50
post #19

I'll suggest a simpler framework for valuing Snapchat: probability of becoming another Facebook. If you think it has a 5% chance, then it should be valued at around 5 billion (relative to Facebook's 100 billion).

I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of peop…

>I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever.

all this still doesn't make it "cool" with 1B of teenagers (don't know what does - if i knew i would probably not be wasting time here :), and 1B a new Facebook would make.

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