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Bitcoin breaks $200

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Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that small number of people use it. They will be not a real alternative unless they have some better features than Bitcoin itself.

In other words, there is no particular technical or legal feature of Bitcoin to differentiate it from another system. Bitcoin just happens to be the most popular and receive the most press. If you cannot identify a particular, distinguishing feature of Bitcoin that accounts for its popularity, why should we believe that this is not a bubble?

That's like saying "what differentiates Facebook from other social networks? It just happens to be the most popular. What is stopping someone from creating a better social network, resulting in a migration away from Facebook?"

Can you identify a particular, distinguishing feature of Facebook that accounts for its popularity? You can, but many modern day competitors have most of the same features, plus additional ones. Everything that they do is pretty easy to replicate.

Both Bitcoin and Facebook may be outcompeted some day in the future, but that doesn't make them bubbles.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#62
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In other words, there is no particular technical or legal feature of Bitcoin to differentiate it from another system. Bitcoin just happens to be the most popular and receive the most press. If you cannot identify a particular, distinguishing feature of Bitcoin that accounts for its popularity, why should we believe that this is not a bubble?

Bitcoin has a gigantic first mover advantage. The free rider alt coins are all essentially based on Bitcoin's blockchain innovation. Until Bitcoin is broken through advances in computing or a solution better than Bitcoin comes along, Bitcoin is the top of the heap for digital cash.

> Bitcoin has a gigantic first mover advantage

Not only that, but:

1) People with investment in hashing power tend to hash on bitcoin

2) If another coin were to come along (as they do, ask me about Terracoin) the speculators would find it.

3) The coin would be vulnerable to attack from those speculators who control even a tiny fraction of the hashes of Bitcoin.

I'm not just talking about double-spend, I mean someone (or several someones) with a large amount of hash power (say, each individually much smaller than 51% of total) coming along to service the network for a short while, driving up the difficulty, and getting away with a lot of coins while actually processing transactions for a comparatively short amount of time.

TRC, as a network with usually several terrahashes[2] hashing constantly, had to implement some controls[4] to prevent this kind of attack.

When the coin is more profitable to hash, the speculators find out, they bring their hashes, and it drives the difficulty up.

When the difficulty goes up, a slog ensues (the per-hash temporary advantage of mining Terracoin dries up) as the speculators take their hashes elsewhere and the remaining sloggers have only to hope that they can provide enough TRC at low cost[3] such that there is never an advantage to speculators, and thus the network can experience organic growth bringing in more permanent hashes from those who support its development.

The controls only limit the mobility of the difficulty (it can't shift up by 4x or down to 0.25x of the last retarget)

So when the slog is particularly bad (high difficulty), or when the hashing hordes are particularly voracious (low difficulty compared to coin price)... instead, it can increase to 1.25x or decrease to 0.75x -- you have to watch the network pretty close to see when people are getting over on profitability, but when they do you can still feel it for days.

The effect of not being the largest network seems to be that your difficulty goes up and down, not always just up up up. It's hard to find long-term difficulty reporting.[1]

Of course when bitcoin spenders are willing to wait up to 10 minutes for blocks, and Terracoin targets 2 minute blocks, even "network's running slow" seems pretty fast in relative terms, as long as it's not uncontrolled adjustment.

They must be doing something right, they're still/currently the most profitable Alt-SHA256 coin, even if the share prices have taken a serious dump.[5]

[1] http://pool.bitcoinreactor.com/pool/statistics/?cur=trc

[2] http://trc.cryptocoinexplorer.com/

[3] https://www.cryptsy.com/markets/view/27

[4] http://terracoin.org/news.html

[5] http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#63
post #46
post #36

If anything to like about Bitcoin is that it has proved that almost everyone else is wrong. * SilkRoad shutting down? Bitcoin is doomed. * Mt.gox is not paying in time or at all? Bitcoin doesn't work. * Asics? There will be a flood of new coins. And yet Bitcoin value continue to raise. If history repeats itself, we should see 1 Bitcoin levels at around $2,000. I think Bitcoin is an interesting phenomena to watch. Bei…

> Asics? There will be a flood of new coins.* the rate of production is fixed, so no one would have predicted that. asic would increase the difficulty level significantly though.

>the rate of production is fixed, so no one would have predicted that.

IIRC, the arguments actually went that GPU miners had their equipment already paid for, and so could afford to hoard their mined coins, but that ASIC miners, who were paying thousands of dollars for their equipment, would be forced to sell their coins immediately to pay for their equipment & electricity.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#64
post #46
post #36

If anything to like about Bitcoin is that it has proved that almost everyone else is wrong. * SilkRoad shutting down? Bitcoin is doomed. * Mt.gox is not paying in time or at all? Bitcoin doesn't work. * Asics? There will be a flood of new coins. And yet Bitcoin value continue to raise. If history repeats itself, we should see 1 Bitcoin levels at around $2,000. I think Bitcoin is an interesting phenomena to watch. Bei…

> Asics? There will be a flood of new coins.* the rate of production is fixed, so no one would have predicted that. asic would increase the difficulty level significantly though.

This isn't quite right. The rate of production has increased, because the computing power is increasing at a very high rate between difficulty adjustments. Blocks are being solved faster than they are "supposed" to be, statistically.

It won't last, eventually the increase in computing power will taper off, but that's the state of things at the moment.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#65
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That looks very similar to this one: http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg If you look at it up to about end-of-year 2000.

The difference though is that Enron insiders were engaging in immoral and illegal activities. Bitcoin on the other hand is provably not a scam; it is an existing and backed commodity. Market manipulation as an insider is impossible, as there are no insiders; manipulation is only possible by attacking infrastructure or accumulating enough BTC. Future bubbles and crashes are likely, but I predict it's going to continue…

Really? What happens when the founders who mined hundreds of thousands of coins in the early days cash out?

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#66
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitstamp is also running up near 190, so it makes sense that lot of the new money has come in through MtGox. https://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

What's the cause of the consistent disparity between exchanges? Is it just the slow speed of transactions?

You can't actually withdraw USD from MtGox, so all the USD prices there are essentially fiction.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#67
post #50
post #5

The fact that the Gox gap is closing makes me suspect that a lot of this rise is coming from new money. I'm guessing few new Bitcoin purchasers are buying through Mt. Gox, which is driving the price up on other exchanges, and closing the gap due to Gox's illiquidity.

Top 3 exchanges over the last 30 days: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d 39% mtgox 23% bitstamp 17% btcchina And over the last 24h: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h 33% btcchina 25% bitstamp 23% mtgox In other words, Bitcoin's popularity is massively increasing in China , as we speak, and this is what is causing a surge of the exchange rate. Other observers have noted th…

You can literally watch BTC China lead the way. Their price goes up before Gox does.

Having said that, a lot more coins are on BTC China today than yesterday, so this effect may decrease.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. I recommend giving http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin a read.

Nothing stops anyone from making their own personal variant of Bitcoin, however. Or 10 of those variants. Or a million. In other words, the limit applies only within a single system, and there is no limit on the number of such systems.

People care about Bitcoin. They don't care about other variants much. This gives Bitcoin value and not the other variants.

In other words, creating another blockchain is easy but convincing enough people that the variant coins are worth something is hard. Very hard.

Re: Bitcoin breaks $200

#70
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a related note, ever heard of the bubble theory of money? The theory goes, that good money is essentially a bubble that can't be popped easily. People compare Bitcoin to the tulip mania, but that is a wrong analogy, given that tulips can be cultivated by anyone to any degree -- whereas Bitcoins are capped by design.

What stops someone from creating their own Bitcoin alternative? Many such systems exist.

I made my own and I was bummed to discover that my BmmCoins are worthless!
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