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Facebook Is Losing Teens

forbes.com

21–30 of 98 posts

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#21
post #10

Aren't Instagram and Snapchat completely different products? Of course, these compete on the 'share of time' of the users, in which case everything teens do is competing with Facebook.

No, Facebook, Instagram, and Shapchat all do the same thing: photo & videos sharing.

So do Twitter, Tumblr, reddit, MySpace, Google+, blogs, etc.

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#22

Facebooks is priced at 240X Price to Earnings. If they start losing users or even stop growing its hard to imagine how that PE ratio continues to makes any sense. Even with an increase in mobile revenue its still less then desktop revenue and users are certainly flocking to mobile too which is a double wammy. So facebook has to transition to making more money per user if its user base stops growing. Otherwise you're…

[citation needed]

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a 19 year old, I will say that from my perspective, this "coolness" factor is seriously overblown and misunderstood. Facebook was never "cool," even when I first got Facebook back in 9th grade, when I was around 14 years old. Facebook was always a highly addictive and vital necessity - a social utility, the lack of which meant losing touch with friends, not being invited to events, and generally missing out on a l…

Facebook was very cool, right before it was open to the public.

It was cool for people not familiar with the internet, for others it was just another social place, like the island in your kitchen.

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#24
I suppose the coming months/years will be when we see whether Facebook becomes the "backbone of the social Internet" or just another MySpace. I honestly don't know where the smart money is here-- it's an exciting time!

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#25
This inevitability is an assumption of Facebook's strategy (see Zuckerberg's Letter), and the reason they bought Instagram.

My suspicion is that teenagers will engage Facebook as they become adults and the social pressures shift.

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#26

Facebooks is priced at 240X Price to Earnings. If they start losing users or even stop growing its hard to imagine how that PE ratio continues to makes any sense. Even with an increase in mobile revenue its still less then desktop revenue and users are certainly flocking to mobile too which is a double wammy. So facebook has to transition to making more money per user if its user base stops growing. Otherwise you're…

The only way that valuation made sense is if facebook managed to capture an enormous fraction of all worldwide ad revenue. That always seemed extremely unlikely to me.

OP is only giving half the story. FB earnings are, in a sense, artificially low. They are dumping money into expanding and growing. FB wants good earnings but, right now, that's not as important as growing users and use. Of course there will always be money spent on growth but to what extent. When they go from dumping money into growth, P/E will be more meaningful in the typical sense.

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#27
As more teenagers gravitate toward online social networks (if not Facebook, then Instagram, etc.), I'm concerned that not enough of them will feel lonely.

I recently watched a Louis C.K. interview about young people and technology, which struck a chord with me. I agree that adolescents benefit from a sense of boredom and isolation because it encourages them to cultivate stronger in-person social networks:

http://teamcoco.com/video/louis-ck-springsteen-cell-phone

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#28
post #16

Didn't Zuck say recently that the actual numbers weren't concerning, and that they're aware they are past the "cool" stage and instead want to move on to become the social fabric of the Internet, much like a utility.

This would make sense if they actually offered much utility. Even Google+ has them beat when it comes to compelling features.

Err, what? If I closed my facebook account I would lose virtually all contact I have with every friend I have made other than the person I live with and a few people who live near me and my family. How the hell is that not utility?

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#29

As more teenagers gravitate toward online social networks (if not Facebook, then Instagram, etc.), I'm concerned that not enough of them will feel lonely. I recently watched a Louis C.K. interview about young people and technology, which struck a chord with me. I agree that adolescents benefit from a sense of boredom and isolation because it encourages them to cultivate stronger in-person social networks: http://team…

I wouldn't worry about facebook preventing people from feeling lonely - it doesn't really solve that problem.

If anything facebook allows you to more easily cultivate in person social networks by making preliminary communication much easier.

Re: Facebook Is Losing Teens

#30
post #18

Facebooks is priced at 240X Price to Earnings. If they start losing users or even stop growing its hard to imagine how that PE ratio continues to makes any sense. Even with an increase in mobile revenue its still less then desktop revenue and users are certainly flocking to mobile too which is a double wammy. So facebook has to transition to making more money per user if its user base stops growing. Otherwise you're…

I don't know Facebook's details, but in theory another possibility to lower P/E: "Stop pouring money into expansion, to lower expenses and increase bottom-line earnings." For example, Amazon could certainly do that, since they spend heavily on expansion

But the flip side is, as soon as they stop investing in expansion, the market will immediately start to wonder if their P/E is justified and might cause a decline in price. The signal from the market to Facebook now is that the shareholders want to invest in growth. And given FB's dominance, size, and talent, it's hard to argue otherwise. Facebook could still change a lot, and I think we're only seeing the beginning of social sharing/search/commerce/media into our lives.
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