Could we ban the words "bubble" and "disrupt" from submission titles?
Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
31–40 of 114 posts
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#32Oh no, something is showing the slightest glimmer of working, it must immediately be a bubble!
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#33I'm still hesitant to sell my (smaller) stash. The probability that bitcoin will explode is fairly low, but trading a small but real possibility of becoming a millionaire against a few thousand dollars is a difficult decision :)
So take a decision now about when you'll sell, write it down, and stick to it. Mine has a 5 year timeline, or a specific value (a few orders of magnitude more than today) at which I'll sell.
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --JM Keynes
:-)
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#34Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#35I know you can sell your coin when the price is high; but can you trade quickly enough to profit from such temporary surges (buy low then sell high only a dozen hours later) ? What is the average request processing time if you want to buy, say, 10 BTC on mtgox ?
Orders don't take long. Most of the time (i.e. when the exchange is operating normally and isn't down) they pretty much just happen so long as you know, the orders can match with other orders. If you buy 10BTC at market rates and tell mtgox that you don't really care what you pay for it, then it'll just go ahead and do it. There's not much waiting involved other than the web interface refreshing, which isn't strictly necessary since you could trade by API too if you'd prefer that.
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#36I know you can sell your coin when the price is high; but can you trade quickly enough to profit from such temporary surges (buy low then sell high only a dozen hours later) ? What is the average request processing time if you want to buy, say, 10 BTC on mtgox ?
An exchange will allow you to trade instantly; the moment your sell/buy orders go through, the btc/usd is available in your account for usage, however getting USD into the exchanges can take some time and in the case of mtgox, getting USD out is almost impossible (it's why the price at mtgox is about 10% higher than elsewhere). Your location matters most, if you're in Europe you could get money into Bitstamp within a couple of hours if you pay for a fast transfer and once it's in you can trade instantly.
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#37I'm still hesitant to sell my (smaller) stash. The probability that bitcoin will explode is fairly low, but trading a small but real possibility of becoming a millionaire against a few thousand dollars is a difficult decision :)
Assuming you have $5000 worth of Bitcoin that's 25 bitcoins at the current $200 exchange rate. So bitcoin has to go to $40.000 for you to become a millionaire. Bitcoin at launch was $0.05. So value of bitcoin has doubled 12 times since launch, and the value of bitcoin has to double 8 more times for your to become a millionaire. So that's quasi-plausible. Not holding my breath, though :) [1] Source https://docs.google…
"At launch" it was worthless.
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#38- Bitcoin? Sounds interesting but I am not going to waste CPU cycles on it. This will never be of any real value!
- Bitcoin seems to be steadily growing. Well, as soon as they realize it is worth nothing, it will return back to non-existency.
- Yeah, this is definitely a fad. It is growing too fast. No way I am going to mine.
- So, mining at home is redundant now. Well, don't picture me buying into it! It can collapse any second.
- Haha, it collapsed. Good grief. No way I am buying all the leftovers. This will never recover.
- Recovering? This will be temporarily. Bitcoin has no future.
- A new peak? Well too late to step in, now. Just wait for the new burst.
- Yet another peak!? This is the last one. Buying now would be stupid.
- Bitcoin heading towards $(peak of some arbitrary rounded number), new bubble forming
Every time.
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because nowadays any exponential growth is called a "bubble in forming". And because all stochastic exponential process eventually crash, or "underperform", it sounds really smart to "predict" a crash months or years in advance. Especially when using non-logarithmic axes, the predictions and the crash look really impressive. You don't, however, often see these prophets of doom profiting from their predictions, becaus…
Its actually generally a lot easier to profit buying a bubble than shorting it.There are a lot more points of increase than points of collapse. Paulson made a fortune shorting the housing market,plenty of people predicted the collapse but Paulson picked the peak correctly. The interesting thing is given his shocking trading performance since then he appears to have been lucky rather than smart. Didier Sornette has so…
Exactly. On shorting a bubble:the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming
#40- Bitcoin? Sounds interesting but I am not going to waste CPU cycles on it. This will never be of any real value! - Bitcoin seems to be steadily growing. Well, as soon as they realize it is worth nothing, it will return back to non-existency. - Yeah, this is definitely a fad. It is growing too fast. No way I am going to mine. - So, mining at home is redundant now. Well, don't picture me buying into it! It can collaps…
Very relevant - Market emotions cycle:
