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Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

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Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#41
post #31
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember that This American Life did a piece on the Lancet studies when they came out. They focused on how the widespread reaction (in the West) to their numbers was one of stubborn disbelief, despite the fact that these were the most credible researchers in the field and that they used standard techniques.

I remember this hilarious reality check from the Iraq Body Count project. I never saw it answered... Do you have a link? http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/beyond/reality-checks/ This was also quite funny: http://lancetiraq.blogspot.com/2010_03_01_archive.html >>stubborn disbelief I thought it was fun how many people on the left knew how it was, with so wildly varying data. But of course, it never happens that res…

Perhaps you know much more about this than I do. My memory is that the Lancet authors were serious, qualified researchers who had done much similar work in the past and whose objectivity had not previously been disputed. If there's a critique to be made of their work, a snarky "that can't be right" blog post certainly doesn't cut it. The authors of the new PLoS study say that they've taken into account criticisms of earlier work; I am sure they have the Lancet articles (among others) in mind, but I do not know the details.

The Iraq Body Count project has bothered me for years because they only count individually confirmable deaths. There is nothing wrong with that as documentary work, but there is something terribly wrong with citing the number of deaths so counted as anything like a credible total for the war, when it is obviously a severe lower bound. War is random and chaotic. Very many people die whose paperwork does not get filled out. It is painfully obvious that statistical techniques are required to arrive at a good estimate under such circumstances. Thus to cite the Iraq Body Count as the total number of deaths in the war is dishonest, yet that is exactly how it has routinely been cited, and I don't understand why they (or at least the people who quote them in media pieces) have not been called out on this more often.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#42
post #29
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt for a moment that American and other Western soldiers were trying hard to avoid civilian casualties. It's deeply unfair to blame them for things they didn't do or for decisions they didn't make and never would have made had it been up to them. That being said, there are a couple problems with your argument. First, it's not the case that dozens of intelligence agencies believed the WMD propaganda. They w…

>>since without the invasion, there wouldn't have been a civil war. Uh... This happened: A starts a war W with B. As a follow on effect, some groups inside B starts a civil war W2 with others in B. You say that A is responsible for the second war W2 too, which they didn't start and even actively tried to stop?! After the war, when does A stop being responsible for everything bad that happens to B, done by B themselve…

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that it is what the Nuremberg principles say (as I understand them) and that this has not even seemed controversial in the past, as long as it was we who were applying the principles to others.

It's hardly fair to make those the principles of international justice when we are doing the judging but suspend them in the case of our own activities.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#43
post #30
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I clearly remember how all that WMD stuff was obvious propaganda at the time. Some of it ("we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud") was even laughable. Nor did the US or other Western intelligence agencies believe it. Analysts tried to submit good reports, but they were overridden. People have often spoken of an "intelligence failure", but there wasn't such a failure; what there was was a success in pol…

>>I clearly remember how all that WMD stuff was obvious propaganda at the time. Interesting, do you have references? To me, it seems really hard to distinguish "obvious propaganda" from low details due to protection of intelligence sources. You would naively/cynically assume that if the US army/etc knew they wouldn't find any remaining WMD programs, they would be planted?

Planted? No, they did something much easier--they changed the subject. The "OMG they've got WMD" rhetoric was replaced by something about the freedom of the Iraqi people.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the 1975 OPEC meeting in Algiers a new treaty was agreed on for the Iran-Iraq border. This was in Iran's favour, and, in those days Iran was a US client. The deal was that Iraq would cede territory in the Shatt al Arab area and in exchange Iran would stop arming Iraqi Kurds. This on-going border dispute (which had gone on for centuries) was important to what happened next. In 1979 a lot of stuff happened. There wa…

Well, Vladimir, Dave, and Angela are fairly nondistinctive names (and in fact, I have no idea who you mean by "Dave"). But in general if I were looking for why something went by a certain name, I'd expect the answer to be "that's how it was learned in the beginning". People hate changing the name they use for things, and even just words for things can persist for so long that there is no knowledge of their origin oth…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cameron, presumably.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#45
post #30
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I clearly remember how all that WMD stuff was obvious propaganda at the time. Some of it ("we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud") was even laughable. Nor did the US or other Western intelligence agencies believe it. Analysts tried to submit good reports, but they were overridden. People have often spoken of an "intelligence failure", but there wasn't such a failure; what there was was a success in pol…

>>I clearly remember how all that WMD stuff was obvious propaganda at the time. Interesting, do you have references? To me, it seems really hard to distinguish "obvious propaganda" from low details due to protection of intelligence sources. You would naively/cynically assume that if the US army/etc knew they wouldn't find any remaining WMD programs, they would be planted?

  >>I clearly remember how all that WMD stuff was obvious 
  propaganda at the time.

  Interesting, do you have references?
LA Times opinion piece explicitly calls out the evidence about Iraq as propaganda:

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/jan/05/opinion/op-marshall5

The Christian Science Monitor discusses propaganda that was used to sell the first Gulf War, and warns us about the dangers of propaganda about the situation with Iraq in 2002:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0906/p25s02-cogn.html

The Guardian reports that much of the British evidence for invasion is based not on new intelligence, but cherry picked academic articles and years old intelligence. This is before the invasion:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/feb/08/politics.iraq

Hans Blix reports that no evidence of proscribed activities has been found in Iraq. While he qualifies it that Iraq has not been as cooperative as wished, he believes that the disarmament plan can be completed within a few months given the recent extra pressure. This is also before the invasion:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/07/sprj.irq.un.transcript.blix...

  You would naively/cynically assume that if the US army/etc 
  knew they wouldn't find any remaining WMD programs, they 
  would be planted?
It's not exactly that there were people who knew they wouldn't find any remaining WMD programs, and went ahead anyhow. It's that strong incentives were set up to find evidence that there were WMDs in Iraq, so the evidence presented was weighted much more heavily towards that which found evidence of WMDs or attempts by Saddam to make or buy WMDs.

This was written shortly after the invasion, about how the Bush administration didn't like the intelligence it was getting from the CIA, so it set up its own Office of Special Plans, specifically tasked to find evidence of WMDs in Iraq and ties to Al Qaeda:

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2003/05/12/030512fa_fact

Well, when the entire purpose of your organization is to find evidence of a particular fact, you will probably find such evidence. That doesn't mean it's true; just that enough dedicated people can find evidence for it. And since you can never conclusively provide evidence of the absence of a WMD program, especially since Saddam wasn't always fully cooperative with inspectors, it was fairly easy to get carried away providing evidence that he had or was developing WMDs, without paying sufficient attention to any counter intelligence.

And of course there's the Downing Street Memo, from July 2002 (nearly a year before the invasion) that reveals that the decision to invade was a fait accompli and the main point of the intelligence and inspections after that point that were just used to provide better political support for the invasion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downing_Street_memo

Also, not that the didn't have to plant evidence of WMDs in Iraq after the invasion; people found out that there were no WMDs, found out about the Downing Street Memo, and yawned. The media didn't care; the US media barely reported on the Downing Street Memo. The public and politicians didn't care; after September 11th, there were still enough people who thought that "something had to be done", and people who thought that Saddam had ties to Al Qaeda, that there was very little political push against the war.

That's what gets me the most about this; how very apathetic the American public and American politicians have been about the mass slaughter of Iraqis (including thousands of civilians), torture, indefinite detention without trial in Guantanamo, extrajudicial assassination on US citizens, and so on and so forth. It's chilling to think that so few people care.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#46
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>since without the invasion, there wouldn't have been a civil war. Uh... This happened: A starts a war W with B. As a follow on effect, some groups inside B starts a civil war W2 with others in B. You say that A is responsible for the second war W2 too, which they didn't start and even actively tried to stop?! After the war, when does A stop being responsible for everything bad that happens to B, done by B themselve…

Yes - A is responsible. If I set fire on half of a fireworks factory, I definitely could be hold responsible if the other half burns down to. Saddam was keeping Iraq relatively stable. The toppling of the regime was done so clumsy with so little idea what to do next that it enabled the sliding down of Iraq into the madness that culminated in 2006-7

Greatly oversimplifying the situation with that terrible metaphor.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#47
post #20

I still remember the chill that ran through relations between Canada and the U.S. after Paul Martin refused to join the war in Iraq (despite still be embroiled in the war in Afghanistan). U.S. pop culture mostly ignored Canada, as per usual, but what few mentions there were soon lumped Canada into the same boat as "French surrender-monkeys", again in spite of the fact that Canadian troops were fighting and dying in A…

It was actually Jean Christian who refused to go to Iraq

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#48
post #3

According to Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Saddam_Hussein'... , estimates of Iraqis killed by Saddam range from a quarter million to a million, and estimates of Iranians killed in the Iran-Iraq are in a similar range. So, let's call his death toll a half million to two million. About a decade after the Gulf War, which had pretty much put a stop to Saddam's killing spree, the US decided to inv…

How did "we" come to this? You're asking the largest military wielder and prison population and the only nation to have used nuclear weapons on real people, people going about their contained lives wanting to wake up to see another day, how "we" came to this.

- Hiroshima

- Nagasaki

- Vietnam

- Constant US policy to support genocidal dictators around the world who mass slaughter "their" people, so long as US corporate interests gain over sovereign interests.

Millions of killings later directly and indirectly from US hands, entire lands and societies literally poisoned into waste at US policy over the past 70 years, and one asks how invading Iraq (and Afghanistan) on imaginary and unjustified pretexts was possible. The answers are shocking and simple.

There are a couple classic "American ways" in spirit. The first has some idealistic value (e.g. individual freedom, can-do attitude). Then the second is one that silences all else: hear no evil, see no evil, support our troops (i.e. in reality, support the political monsters who use them). The simplest answers to your question are related to deeply rooted combinations of nationalism, racism, pride, intolerance, regional proximity to other nations, and systems of governance that are both insufficiently compartmentalized and that run on forced funding (taxation). Guaranteed funding, especially with only the masking of "democracy," was a fast path for a super power that thinks itself a "super hero" in the world's eye -- and largely was seen as such to those who didn't face the brunt of its violence -- to guarantee its continued exploits and an accelerating industry of war. Elections put little if any checks/balances upon a congressional network of plunderers who mostly serve the same corporate and violent interests, policies, and strategists, but through lightly varying vocabulary come election. Paranoia that the US could reasonably claim in that last 'new century' and into this one is dismissed by policies that become brutal and offensive.

1. Google the American timelines and legacy of its direct and proxy imperialism: https://www.google.com/search?q=us+imperialism

2. Oliver Stone's Showtime series, "Untold History of the United States," is quite worth watching in full. Sure, we can all find faults with it. It's not intended to give a "balanced" account. Rather, it's a crash course in provoking thought about the seldom discussed or even known aspects of US policy compared to the general public and its vapid historical accounting of its negative actions. It's 10 episodes. http://www.sho.com/sho/oliver-stones-untold-history-of-the-u...

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#49
post #40
post #3

According to Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Saddam_Hussein'... , estimates of Iraqis killed by Saddam range from a quarter million to a million, and estimates of Iranians killed in the Iran-Iraq are in a similar range. So, let's call his death toll a half million to two million. About a decade after the Gulf War, which had pretty much put a stop to Saddam's killing spree, the US decided to inv…

The US fighting Iraq was more about being able to defeat a tangible foe and make it look like something was being done in the wake of the WTC attacks - punching ghosts in Afghanistan wasn't providing the balm the politicians were looking for. The invasion of Iraq was more about that "Mission Accomplished" banner for the domestic market than actually doing anything for Iraqis and their neighbours.

that's the best tl;dr summary.

Re: Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation

#50
post #22
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were over two dozen foreign intelligence agencies that agreed that Saddam either had or was attempting to build or purchase weapons of destruction. Nuclear weapons are extremely difficult to hide anywhere on earth, but many other types of weapons of mass destruction aren't difficult to dispose of. That's not to say that the invasion turned out to be a good idea, or that we were justified in the attempt, but tho…

I don't doubt for a moment that American and other Western soldiers were trying hard to avoid civilian casualties. It's deeply unfair to blame them for things they didn't do or for decisions they didn't make and never would have made had it been up to them. That being said, there are a couple problems with your argument. First, it's not the case that dozens of intelligence agencies believed the WMD propaganda. They w…

There is no doubt that Iraq did have chemical weapons [1], that chemical weapons are classified as weapons of mass destruction [2]. There's also no doubt that the nebulousness of the term was used by both sides in the debate to steer conversation. The ridiculous assertion at one point that Hussein was trying to acquire nuclear weaponry [3] muddied those waters even more.

Iraq did have chemical weapons (WMDs). They had demonstrated a willingness to use them on civilian populations [1]. Iraq possibly still had active WMDs at the end of the 1998 inspections. Chemical weaponry tends to have a fairly short shelf life, though, and stockpiles need to be constantly replenished. We did not ever find WMDs in iraq after the 2003 invasion, but we did find the labs to make them and the evidence that they had been manufactured at some point. This was not news, because we knew that Iraq had WMDs. It was considered insane by most western agencies that a dictator as mad as Hussein was would willingly disarm; Willingly let the stockpiles he was known to have had of WMDs simply wither and rot. Every major intelligence agency believed that Hussein had WMDs.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destru... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapon_of_mass_destruction#Evol... [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries

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