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To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

economist.com

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Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#91
post #24

What a weird article. I agree with nearly every individual fact within it, but after reading it, I still don't know the point of the piece. I don't want to jump to conclusions, but given that this piece is mostly criticism of science the part of me that associates "conservatives" with "anti-intellectual reactionaries" suspects a hidden agenda to undermine science or give climate change "skeptics" something to point a…

>but because they have a huge depth of knowledge about a particular field. Any working scientist can point out published, cited papers in their field that are total crap.

No. I promise you, there are scientists who literally cannot bring themselves to believe that any of the papers are crap, who buy into the Science as authority dogma. There are also scientists who do not have a depth of knowledge in any field, much less their own.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#93
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 on "what the fuck are you talking about?" Climate science even got a physics prof from Berzerkely (who was convinced that only physicists knew how to do science right) who went in with an anti-climatology bias, and was funded by the Koch brother, and he replicated climatology results in the "BEST" study -- to the point where journals like Nature turned down publishing the BEST study because it was not new informat…

a Koch-backed study has actually determined that climate science really is science Reference, please?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/a-skeptica...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-...

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#94
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sort of amuses me that there are HN climate change denialists, but there aren't really any HN creationists.

Hacker News has climate change "denialists" because climate models are terrible at predicting global temperature[1][2]. Once scientists gain the ability to make accurate predictions, more logic-minded hackers will go along. Hackers like predictive models with a good track record, a la Nate Silver. They dislike emotional bullying. [1] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/14/90-climate-model-proje... [2] http://www.econo…

Climate models are not intended to precisely predict global temperature on short time scales, so the fact that they cannot does not disprove their accuracy or utility.

Furthermore, global climate models are tools for a particular kind of research, not the basis for the theory of global warming--which predates electronic computers by about 40 years.

Evolutionary theory cannot reliably predict complex outcomes either. For example, despite the relative biological simplicity of a flu virus, scientists struggle to predict the strain(s) that will be most virulent each year. But I never see posts on HN holding this failure up as proof that evolution is not believable.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#95
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a Koch-backed study has actually determined that climate science really is science Reference, please?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/a-skeptica... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-...

Thanks for the links. I'll add one link, direct to the project page, since it has links to the actual data, as well as much more detail than is in the articles:

http://berkeleyearth.org/

I note two things on a first read-through:

(1) The project confirmed the data on temperature trends, but the error bar sizes are only reasonable back to about 1860; further back than that, the error bars get quite large. This is glossed over in the statements of findings: for example, the summary of findings (http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings) says: "Global land temperatures have increased by 1.5 degrees C over the past 250 years", but the error bars in 1750 are about +/- 1.5 C. You can't conclude anything reliably when the error bars are as large as the signal you think you see in the data.

(I also note, btw, that this conclusion is mis-stated in the NYT op-ed by Muller: it says "Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years". Neither of those statements are consistent with the summary of findings page on the project site, which claims, and shows, 1.5 C rise over the past 250 years, as above, and less than 1 C rise over the past 50 years.)

(2) The project looked at statistics on temperature trends to test whether the "urban heat island" effect might have biased the conclusions; since they saw the same trends when looking at rural areas only, they concluded that it didn't. But that isn't the only criticism Anthony Watts made of the individual station data: he claimed that the locations of many individual thermometers, urban and rural, were poorly chosen (the classic case is one that was placed in the hot air exhaust stream of an air conditioning unit). The Berkeley project did not go and eyeball individual stations, as Watts did, so they had no way of assessing this effect.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#96

The truth machine is broken. How do we fix it? And why is it that whenever I see a list of the "top 10 most important problems" to solve, this isn't on it? Most educated people take the veracity of published science as given, and we clearly know that's a false assumption. I know we need more transparency in science - sharing of data and code, and negative results. But institutionally, I don't know how we get there wi…

We remember the big results of science: Newton's gravity, Einstein's special relativity, Darwin's natural selection, the Alvarez hypothesis of dinosaur extinction, etc. In doing so we forget the orders of magnitude more research results which were eventually proven wrong, or inconsequential.

Most of the papers that are wrong today will be caught eventually, or simply won't matter in the long run. The truth machine is not broken, it's just bigger and slower than most people realize.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#97
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/a-skeptica... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-...

Thanks for the links. I'll add one link, direct to the project page, since it has links to the actual data, as well as much more detail than is in the articles: http://berkeleyearth.org/ I note two things on a first read-through: (1) The project confirmed the data on temperature trends, but the error bar sizes are only reasonable back to about 1860; further back than that, the error bars get quite large. This is glos…

a) I'm not the author of the study.

b) You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. (the delta between our post timestamps)

c) IMO whatever credibility you might have had to debate the science in detail is forfeited by your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. EDIT: this is wrong, I confused you with another poster in this thread who had previously linked to the Watts blog. My apologies.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#98
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/a-skeptica... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-...

Thanks for the links. I'll add one link, direct to the project page, since it has links to the actual data, as well as much more detail than is in the articles: http://berkeleyearth.org/ I note two things on a first read-through: (1) The project confirmed the data on temperature trends, but the error bar sizes are only reasonable back to about 1860; further back than that, the error bars get quite large. This is glos…

They looked at siting effects as well:

http://www.scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-107.php

They used Watts own siting data and showed that both poor and good sites showed the same temperature trend over time.

The data back to 1860 are also sufficient to establish the current warming trend and through other analysis (e.g. Meehl, et al's work) to establish the climate sensitivity. Climate science as a discipline does not hinge on knowing exactly how warm it was 250 years ago within +/- 0.5C.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#99
The only important discussion to have is "how can we improve our scientific method." Complaining about deficiencies without offering improvements is not particularly useful. There is no alternative to science.

The posters here that are suggesting that people should not trust science ought to be shunned. It is good to be skeptical of particular studies, but if you discard "science" you are reverting to a position of complete ignorance. Always remember that without an alternative model, if you discard a body of research the only valid fallback is that you don't know anything.

Re: To an alarming degree, science is not self-correcting

#100
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the links. I'll add one link, direct to the project page, since it has links to the actual data, as well as much more detail than is in the articles: http://berkeleyearth.org/ I note two things on a first read-through: (1) The project confirmed the data on temperature trends, but the error bar sizes are only reasonable back to about 1860; further back than that, the error bars get quite large. This is glos…

a) I'm not the author of the study. b) You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading. (the delta between our post timestamps) c) IMO whatever credibility you might have had to debate the science in detail is forfeited by your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy. EDIT: this is wrong, I confused you with another poster…

You expect us to believe that you have developed substantive critiques of a 3-year research project in 24 minutes of reading.

I don't expect you to "believe" anything. I expect you to look at the items I pointed out and see what you think of them. If you don't agree with them, feel free to give specific reasons why not.

your un-ironic reliance on the blog of a retired TV weather guy.

I didn't bring Watts into it; the Berkeley project did. I was merely commenting on something that Watts had emphasized but I didn't see mention of in the first set of links (lamontcg gave another link that does deal with that specific issue, I'll take a look at it).

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