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Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

vincent.etter.io

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Re: Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

#4

Post by Wookai »

moneyrich4 wrote: post #3
Wookai wrote: post #2

I'm the main author of the paper, and creator of http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ . If you have any question, please ask, I'll be happy to answer!

so are the first 4 hours the most important? or very important?

Let's say that the way the project starts is important. How long really depends on the campaign duration. After 4 hours on average, the accuracy is 76%, meaning that you can tell quite accurately pretty early. We focus on early predictions because this is when they are helpful, i.e. the creator has time to react. We have very high accuracy near the end, but this does not help so much...

Re: Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

#5

Post by eurekin »

Wookai wrote: post #2

I'm the main author of the paper, and creator of http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ . If you have any question, please ask, I'll be happy to answer!

I didn't see any classification measures besides accuracy... Could You provide the confusion matrix? It's easy to derive all the important values (FPR, TPR, precision so on) and get a lot better idea of quality.

Since the outcome is either success or not, the coin flip classifier yields an accuracy of 50%. It would be worth noting that in the paper.

Re: Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

#6

Post by Wookai »

eurekin wrote: post #5
Wookai wrote: post #2

I'm the main author of the paper, and creator of http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ . If you have any question, please ask, I'll be happy to answer!

I didn't see any classification measures besides accuracy... Could You provide the confusion matrix? It's easy to derive all the important values (FPR, TPR, precision so on) and get a lot better idea of quality. Since the outcome is either success or not, the coin flip classifier yields an accuracy of 50%. It would be worth noting that in the paper.

It's true that that should have mentionned it in the paper. The basline here is always telling it fails, which gives you about 52% accuracy. I should definitely provide the confusion matrix, it's on my TODO list. I will add a performance section to the website where I show this kind of information.

Re: Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

#9

Post by Wookai »

sesm wrote: post #8
Wookai wrote: post #2

I'm the main author of the paper, and creator of http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ . If you have any question, please ask, I'll be happy to answer!

Do you have plans to add indiegogo and other crowdufning sites?

Yes, I just have to see whether I could gather the same kind of information on these other websites. But I definitely want to compare the results I have with other crowdfunding websites.

Re: Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf]

#10

Post by Wookai »

sfrechtling wrote: post #7

What I found curious was the difference in goals for successful and non-successful projects. It seemed that lower goals had a higher chance of succeeding (all things considered). Would that be a right conclusion to jump to?

It is correct: on average, failed projects ask for more money than successful ones, except for projects in the Video Games category. There, it is the opposite. I'll add a "Stats" page to the website as soon as possible to show these results.
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