Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

blogs.marketwatch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–89 of 89 posts

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#81

Post by comrade_ogilvy »

astrodust wrote: post #75
atlanticus wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A hundred years is an eternity in terms of current technological advancement. We only learned the universe is accelerating its expansion in 1997. Think about that next time you think a 100 year supply is tiny.

They say Americans should learn that 100 years is not a long time just as Europeans should learn that 100 miles it not a long distance. What if we were in year 95 of the 100 year supply? How would you feel then?

It does not work that way. The finite Easy Oil is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. The price point just trends upwards after the relatively easy material is successfully mined/drilled -- there is plenty more, it is just harder and harder to get to.

There is a small amount of oil that can be pumped at less than $10 per barrel. There is a moderate amount of oil that can be pumped at $20 per barrel, and that will disappear in the foreseeable future. At $50 per barrel, there is a lot of fossil fuel material. At $100 per barrel, there is vastly more. At $200 per barrel, we do not know because no one will care until the 23rd century, but the problem will probably be the environmental damage, not the availability.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#82

Post by astrodust »

atlanticus wrote: post #78
astrodust wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They say Americans should learn that 100 years is not a long time just as Europeans should learn that 100 miles it not a long distance. What if we were in year 95 of the 100 year supply? How would you feel then?

Even in five years their will be amazing technological advances, but the question was 100 years. Goal post moving aside, I would be highly surprised if in 100 years energy is not mostly a solved problem. But doom is more dramatic and sells more advertising.

Optimism is great, but we need to plan for the worst, too. The environmental costs for fracking could be unbelievably bad.

Fresh water's one of those resources that's going to become dangerously scarce if we don't manage it properly, and fracking, like oil sands, uses staggeringly large amounts of it. Maybe there's 100 years worth of gas down there, but can we pump water loaded with who knows what chemicals (proprietary mixture, of course) down there for a hundred years to get it out?

Plus, what's a 100 year supply at today's consumption rate could quickly become a 50 year supply if consumption doubles, or 25 years if consumption quadruples. Why would consumption jump so much? What if cars started running on liquified natural gas instead of gasoline? What if power plants switched from nuclear to gas? What if the population grows another 20-30% in the next 25 years?

It's never actually a 100 year supply. Exponential growth will shrink it faster than you think.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#83

Post by specialist »

comrade_ogilvy wrote: post #79
specialist wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a minority view: Climate change is now in a positive feedback loop (thawing tundra, forests burning, ocean acidification) and ceasing human activity won't stop it. I believe we need to proactively remove atmospheric CO2. Retool our economy and industrial might for that job. To do that, we need a strong economy. I'm not saying more, cheaper fossil fuels is a good thing. I just think we should play the cards we'…

I have often wondered if the CO2 is really the most dangerous ecological experiment we are applying to this planet at this point in history. It is, after all, a plant nutrient that eventually goes away over time. 3.5 billion years ago this planet was covered with methane and O2 was a trace poison to most existing life, until plant forms devoured the carbon and farted out O2 we all love. We are doing many kinds of "te…

Trying to stay positive here, I hope:

- with solar capacity doubling every 30 months (1), once our electricity needs are met, we use excess capacity to produce hydrogen.

- we displace most fossil fuel with a combination of biodiesel (algae), cellulosic ethanol, and hydrogen.

- we clean up all our radioactive waste stockpiles, and generate electricity, with traveling wave reactors.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#84

Post by Someone »

dnissley wrote: post #53
joshuahedlund wrote: post #19

Commenters bemoaning US running out of resources sooner or ruining the environment by increasing usage should note that US oil demand has essentially peaked[1] and will likely drop in the coming years due to a variety of factors including demographics and the increasing viability of alternative energy sources (solar power + Tesla et. al.) In this context, the US gas/oil energy boom is a wonderful thing, a last hurrah…

Here's a good article[1] on why US oil consumption has declined in recent years. Basically: Improved vehicle MPG, flat/decreasing VMT [2], decreasing non-highway use of distillate [3], improved industrial efficiency, and a shrinking industrial sector. [1] - http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9811 [2] - Vehicle Miles Traveled [3] - http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2013/130227/twippr...

That "shrinking industrial sector" without a shrinking consumption probably means that other countries, in particular China, burn oil/gas/nuclear to produce stuff for the USA.

A honest "are the US using less oil" evaluation should include that energy, just like ecological footprint calculations include imports of materials.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#85

Post by triplesec »

seiji wrote: post #16
triplesec wrote: post #7

Great. So now the US'll just run out relatively sooner than they would have done compared with those guys. WTG short-term thinking with finite resources. Humans are idiots.

The problem isn't running out of oil. The problem is increased production incentivizing increased usage which drives us over the edge of an irreversible climate catastrofuck. All the oil is getting extracted out of the ground and (at utilization time) getting pumped into the air. It's the exact opposite of what we need to be doing now.

Agreed. slower use f these things and encouraging alternative energies earlier (while understanding population control) would have kept this less of a clusterfkc. However, humans != long-term political planning.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#86

Post by mikeash »

marknutter wrote: post #80
mikeash wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a point to ranking impractical solutions?

Impractical, yet exactly what France did..

In a different age, when public opinion on nuclear energy was substantially different.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#87

Post by maxerickson »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #34
maxerickson wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure the majority of it would be for export? A big driver of exports is simply the fact that lots of places don't have refinery capacity. People in such places are willing to pay more than people in the U.S., with its relative abundance of refineries. The rest of the 'not consuming our own content' is just a logistics thing, the cheapest oil is generally used, not the oil that crosses the least borders.

>>>> A big driver of exports is simply the fact that lots of places don't have refinery capacity. I've been harping on this for years. You can produce billions of gallons of oil, but if you can't refine it, it's a loss leader and a big reason why our gas continues to hover around $4. If we owned the whole cycle from drilling, production, refinement and consumption, it would be huge. Cutting out the refining middle ma…

The U.S. consumes 8 or 9 million barrels of gasoline per day and imports a net of about 300,000 a day. So there is quite some domestic refinery production there.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#88

Post by nsxwolf »

_delirium wrote: post #66
nsxwolf wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I am not into sacrifice and pain. Please continue developing energy technologies so that I can live in a house with lights and running water, and have a car that can get me and my family around.

It would be nice if there were at least more options for people who actually want to forgo some energy usage to do so. Back when I lived in the U.S., I had to have a car and drive everywhere, because everything was laid out in such a car-oriented manner, and the transit was so bad. I didn't find it enjoyable or convenient, more of a kind of pain. I would've happily taken some of my energy consumption off the road, if…

Yes, that's kind of how it is here. Unless you live in the handful of cities that have really stellar public transportation, you are a hardcore motorist.

Re: U.S. is now the world’s biggest oil and gas producer

#89

Post by throwaway2048 »

foobarbazqux wrote: post #29
hannibal5 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we want to limit climate change to +2°C, we must leave 80% of hydrocarbons into the ground. This option is not showing in the prices of energy companies. It's just not going to happen.

On the bright side, forecasters that rely on computer models of massive systems often end up making horribly inaccurate predictions. For example, we usually get tomorrow's weather wrong.

Being wrong goes both ways
Post reply on HN