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Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

theguardian.com

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Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#141

Post by IanDrake »

Just thinking out loud here...

Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance?

I'm not talking about moore's law, but statistical models used to predict the future. How many solar flares will there be in 2020? What will the DOW be in 2050? How many democrats will be in congress in 2021? Stuff like that.

So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault."

I'm just curious if anyone knows of any predictive models that weren't created to scare the shit out of people.

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#142

Post by dragonwriter »

IanDrake wrote: post #141

Just thinking out loud here... Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? I'm not talking about moore's law, but statistical models used to predict the future. How many solar flares will there be in 2020? What will the DOW be in 2050? How many democrats will be in congress in 2021? Stuff like that. So far, the only ones I can think of a…

> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance?

Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more.

> So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault."

That's more indicative of the biases through which you filter the available information (perhaps most importantly, the bias in the information sources from which you receive information -- e.g., if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media, there's a pretty heavy bias in what predictions you are going to hear about.)

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#143

Post by IanDrake »

dragonwriter wrote: post #142
IanDrake wrote: post #141

Just thinking out loud here... Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? I'm not talking about moore's law, but statistical models used to predict the future. How many solar flares will there be in 2020? What will the DOW be in 2050? How many democrats will be in congress in 2021? Stuff like that. So far, the only ones I can think of a…

> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more. > So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault." That's more indicativ…

>Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever.

Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff.

>if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media

That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#144

Post by dragonwriter »

IanDrake wrote: post #143
dragonwriter wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more. > So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault." That's more indicativ…

>Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. >if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?

> Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff.

Lots of it involves predicting the behavior of complex economic and social systems using empirically-tested (scientific) methodologies.

> That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?

If you want to know about where science is used to predict the behavior of complex systems, one place to look would be the scientific literature of fields which are concerned with the behavior of complex systems.

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#146

Post by MrZongle2 »

randomfool wrote: post #106
hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #30

The short-term scenario is not good, but from the little I know about aquatic biology/chemistry, it might not be as catastrophical as the article pictures it. Increased CO2 levels should just cause algae/cyanobacteria blooms, which will balance CO2/O2 levels back again and foster primary consumers (solving over-fishing as a bonus). Also, H2CO3 gets buffered by all the Ca/Mg content in the ocean, so I don't think it's…

I live in Seattle and in just the past few years, beaches which used to be absolutely covered in oysters are now barren because of acidification. And by covered, I mean you need a path through them to walk (they are sharp), and the most difficult thing when picking them was to pick up a single one rather than cluster. This was on the Hood canal for anyone in the area. http://apps.seattletimes.com/reports/sea-change/2…

Playing devil's advocate here: how is this change in a specific location any more "proof" of ocean acidification than especially cold weather in a different location "disproves" global warming?

Aren't both of these cases instances of cherry-picking?

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#147

Post by j_baker »

IanDrake wrote: post #141

Just thinking out loud here... Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? I'm not talking about moore's law, but statistical models used to predict the future. How many solar flares will there be in 2020? What will the DOW be in 2050? How many democrats will be in congress in 2021? Stuff like that. So far, the only ones I can think of a…

Medicine. "You're going to die in 20 years due to your diabetes."

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#148

Post by j_baker »

Daishiman wrote: post #41
hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No organism on this planet has ever seen a rate of change as strong as this, so this is completely unpredictable territory. It isn't unpredictable, it already happened, and still the world is not overtaken by cyanobacter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyanobacteria#Earth_history

The fact that it's predictable in the span of several hundreds of thousands of years doesn't mean that we're in for massive, massive two hundred years (or more) or unpredictable events. Systems may take a looong time before they stabilize.

If we've sped up the extinction, why can't we speed up the regrowth?

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#149

Post by IanDrake »

dragonwriter wrote: post #144
IanDrake wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. >if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?

> Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. Lots of it involves predicting the behavior of complex economic and social systems using empirically-tested (scientific) methodologies. > That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples? If you want to know about where science is used to predict the behavior of complex systems, one place to look would be the scientific literatu…

Do you realize you basically just said "If you know where to look, you'll find it"?

Thanks MOTO. Any links?

Re: Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

#150

Post by kbutler »

Daishiman wrote: post #137
ars wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are almost no positive feedback loops in nature, for the simple reason that they tend to get triggered by random variations and feedback on themself till they reach limit and convert to negative loops.

Try Siberian bog swamps releasing an amount of methane with effects equal to the US yearly emissions.

"The fact that the ice core records do not seem full of methane spikes due to high-latitude sources makes it seem like the real world is not as sensitive as we were able to set the model up to be."

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/much-a...

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