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Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

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191–200 of 233 posts

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#191
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't want to look like a conspiracy theorist, you should probably stop making such hyperbolic claims about gerrymandering. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/17/r...

There's nothing "hyperbolic" about it. The party that's in power during redistricting always does this. It so happens that this time around it was the Republicans, and they've set up the districts so that they feel safe in pursuing an unpopular agenda. The actual hyperbolic conspiracy-theory angle on redistricting is that the long-term plan, funded by the Kochs and others, was to ensure that only the most extreme Rep…

Political scientists have long said that there's not a lot of evidence for a change in macro outcomes due to gerrymandering. In most scenarios, if anything, gerrymandering makes sitting politicians on both sides more safe. It's really hard to actually tip the balance such that one side gets significantly more seats because if you spread your supporters out efficiently (51% your party) and then cluster the other party, you get a bunch of weakly held seats. However, if you want safe seats, you get fewer of them.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is basically argumentation by story. You told one of many possible stories as if it was obviously and indisputably true. You provided no support for it. What about all the other plausible stories that you ignored? What if these "stabilizers" (i.e. money creation) are doing more harm than good, or even causing the business cycle? What if social safety hammocks decrease growth? What if welfare provided by prudent…

Fact 1: Government current expenditures directly contribute $5.621 trillion out of $16.6 trillion of US GDP. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/W022RC1A027NBEA?... http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP Fact 2: State and municipal governments have subsidized borrowing costs via the federal tax exemption. I don't know where you live, but are your state and local governments borrowers? What about the…

[deleted]

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#193
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GOP moderates will take a hit. The more conservative members that are driving this shutdown will end up strengthening their base, so they won't feel as much pressure.

In addition, some theorize that the Republicans can use the chaos and votes supporting the ACA to go after vulnerable Democratic senators. And maybe I'm getting too cynical, but the extreme Republican line for years has been that government is the problem, not the solution. So I don't think the members chasing the base have the same interest in a functioning state that the rest of them do.

This is exactly the case they are in. If you look at it from the typical tea-party perspective, they were in a win-win situation. Either get concessions on AFA, or shut down the government, which in their view is the root of the problem to begin with. I have to think this strategy will end up backfiring on them eventually, especially when you consider the long term trends in political leanings in the country, but for now, they got exactly what they wanted.

I'm reminded of the dog that finally caught a car and then didn't know what to do with it.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#194
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't want to look like a conspiracy theorist, you should probably stop making such hyperbolic claims about gerrymandering. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/17/r...

There's nothing "hyperbolic" about it. The party that's in power during redistricting always does this. It so happens that this time around it was the Republicans, and they've set up the districts so that they feel safe in pursuing an unpopular agenda. The actual hyperbolic conspiracy-theory angle on redistricting is that the long-term plan, funded by the Kochs and others, was to ensure that only the most extreme Rep…

Esch state draws its own districts, so there were 50 different "party in power" scenarios in 2010. Democrats in California gerrymandered themselves into a super majority. In Texas Republicans drew themselves some very safe districts. But there is no national gerrymandering or "party in power".

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#195
I remember a couple years back reading somewhere (I tried and failed to find the article) that the Treasury Department's software wasn't actually prepared to stop the automatic generation of checks and payments if the debt ceiling was hit. This was for the first time that there was a "crisis" under Obama, so I would imagine that it's been solved.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The truly positive contribution of a federal government (besides the questionable benefit of military protection) comes in the form of automatic stabilizers for the economy. When there is a shock to the economy, social safety nets dampen the pain significantly. Local and state governments would never be able to provide a reliable social safety net, because they have to operate on the same principles as every other us…

>In fact, you can see this difference play out in slow motion in the Eurozone, which still has not recovered from the financial crisis. Things would have played out very different had their been a Eurozone federal government that provides at least the basic components of the social safety nets. I don't understand this argument. Are you claiming that there's no social safety nets in Europe? There are and have been and…

The issue is with the ability to issue currency, not with the social safety net. The sentence that you reference is a little misleading. What was implied, was that if the Eurozone had a federal government with the ability to issue currency, and that same government was also in charge of the social safety net (among other programs), then there wouldn't be as much of a crisis because they could print money to pay for the programs. Because the social safety nets are implemented by the individual countries, and those countries cannot print their own currency, they are currently forced to implement austerity measures. This is why recovery has been so difficult. The last thing you want to do is to cut spending during a recession.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#197
post #181

[deleted]

It's not so much a rule as it is that Boehner needs to keep a majority of his party behind him in order to remain speaker. If he goes against them, they just vote for someone else. Everyone assumes that there won't be any defectors from either party in that scenario, so whoever gets the majority of the Republicans is the Speaker.

A majority of the Republicans is hardly a small fraction in the grand scheme of ways things can get blocked in Congress. Committee chairs block things essentially on their own all the time.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#198
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That we prioritize jobs? The DOD is a jobs program, with a side benefit of being a military. But mainly it's a jobs program that also does basic research and engineering.

All the other jobs being furloughed are also jobs. Why not prioritize them instead? It seems crazy to say, "yeah, those people we hired because we actually want them to work should go unpaid first, and the people we hired just as a jobs program should be kept hell or high water." Edit: s/laid off/go unpaid

I misunderstood you, I thought you were talking about the DOD being the largest employer, and our priorities about it existing.

As for funding it, it's just because it was an easy vote, not because of priorities.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#199
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the other jobs being furloughed are also jobs. Why not prioritize them instead? It seems crazy to say, "yeah, those people we hired because we actually want them to work should go unpaid first, and the people we hired just as a jobs program should be kept hell or high water." Edit: s/laid off/go unpaid

I misunderstood you, I thought you were talking about the DOD being the largest employer, and our priorities about it existing. As for funding it, it's just because it was an easy vote, not because of priorities.

Er, right. Reading back through the thread, I can see how that was confusing. My fault.

As you've now surmised, I was just complaining about the military's special status vis-a-vis the shutdown, for which "that's a lot of jobs!" is inapposite. But while we're on it, I guess I should say this: I'm for the government providing jobs, but I am against them being in the military, and strongly believe they should be employed more productively and less violently. I can think of a lot of things a make-work program could fix but I can't think of anyone I want to kill.

Re: Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years

#200

I've actually had time over the past few weeks to spend time watching the various duscussions in the Senate. In other words, I chose to go to the source and take the time to understand rather than get fed a bunch of ideologically loaded bullshit by various news outfits. Here's reality: Obamacare is a complete disaster. Don't take my word for it, go research what unions are saying, what businesses are doing an go figu…

I apologize if this is inflammatory, but: "I guess when you have a president who isn't even qualified to run a cookie baking operation" -- this is where you lost all my interest, hyperbole or not.

Don't take my word for it. Here. Do this.

Go to Monster.com or the appropriate job board.

Find a job description for a CEO of a non-trivial business. Say, a manufacturing operation with thousands of employees, international reach, a complex supply chain and a well developed channel of distribution.

Now go back and find Obama's resume from 2008.

Objectively look at it and compare it to the resume of seasoned C-level executives who might apply for such a position. You can use LinkedIn for this purpose, find people who you think might be qualified for the job and, therefore, could be interested in applying.

I hope your conclusion will be that Obama was, in no way, qualified for such a job. Not even close. He had been on the job as Senator for two years and was a law professor before that. There seems to be nothing whatsoever in his life experience that could even remotely paint him as qualified to take on such responsibility.

His resume would go in the trash bin instantly and a polite email dispatched to inform him that he is not being considered. I could see HR going "Why is a law professor applying to run a business when he knows absolutely nothing about running any kind of a business and has no relevant experience?".

My statement is, without a doubt, factually correct. Perhaps it offends you. However, that does nothing towards altering it's veracity. In fact, it can easily expanded to declare that it would have been unlikely for him to have been qualified for C-level leadership positions at any non-trivial business. He simply wasn't qualified.

Yet, we gave him the largest economy in the world to run. During the first two years he could have done whatever he wanted. He had the House and the Senate. Any half-way-decent business person would have had a laser-like focus on the economy, jobs, reducing spending and facilitating economic activity. Not him. He didn't have a clue. He focused on anything but the many elephants in the room. That's a matter of record (and the lack of results). And here we are.

Want more proof? Remember what he said about the National Debt as a Senator? Don't remember? Here, I'll help you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kuTG19Cu_Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fUmFBMVWNI

And now we are at $17 trillion and he wants MORE!

And we have no budget.

And every bill being passed is chock-full of earmarks and back-end deals that would sicken most.

On top of what I said regarding his qualifications, he also happens to be a hypocrite and a liar. I'll leave it up to you to go back and review video records of the things he promised and compare them to what he's actually done.

When every union in the country is screaming bloody murder about Obamacare you know you have problems.

That said, this isn't about Obama and Obamacare. This is about the branches of our government having plunged us into a very dangerous position over the last, say, fifty years. Again, party affiliation isn't relevant here. These people are making bad decisions on both sides of the isle.

Regardless of whether you agree with me or not the fact remains that our kids are going to inherit a disaster of nearly unimaginable proportions. Perhaps you are OK with that and choose to look the other way due to party or other loyalties. Thou shalt not speak ill of our tribe! Or some such thing. Well, that's cool. I admire your loyalty. However, the one important detail is: This does not change where we are headed.

What's your limit for the national debt?

When do you say "enough!"?

We are at $17 trillion right now [1] (well, just shy). That means each tax payer would have to pay nearly $150,000 [1] in order to pay off our debt today. You and I are not paying it off any time soon. And, if we continue along this path even our children will not be able to pay it off.

How much is enough?

Senator Obama said adding $4 trillion to the national debt was "irresponsible" and "unpatriotic", his words, not mine. He was right. What, then, is adding another ELEVEN TRILLION [3] by the time he leaves office? He is on track to more than double the national debt with respect to what it was when he took office.

At what point are you willing to proclaim that our government is fiscally inept, irresponsible and, yes, unpatriotic?

Do you understand how important it is to bring things back to a more reasonable state? Surely you do. I can't imagine anyone not researching this at least to an extent where he or she can understand the numbers and their consequences. A couple of hours of Excel work and your jaw should be on the floor. And you should be angry too.

[1] http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kuTG19Cu_Q

[3] http://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

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