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Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

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Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#21

I'm kinda wondering what the variance is on these numbers. I'd imagine that the doctoral numbers have quite a few tenured professors and industrial researchers making six figures, but the median is shifted downwards by a large number of postdocs making $30-40K. If having a masters basically guarantees you a salary of $60K, but getting a doctorate means you have a 50% chance of making $30K and a 50% chance of making $…

If pay is influencing you decision to go for a Ph.D you probably shouldn't do it.

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#22
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this a problem? These people should just allocate their time to the new opportunities created by the downturn. I have several friends who are unemployed recent grads and they seem to be just sitting on their asses, sending out resumes, waiting for the economy to turn around. Why they aren't starting their own projects or seeking consulting work (I believe consulting / temping is somewhat counter-cyclical?) I c…

Consulting/temping is very much pro-cyclical. The consultants and temps are the first to go when the economy goes down, and the last to be hired back. Playing devil's advocate here (your suggestion is exactly what I'd do, and it's worked fairly well for me), but... One reason they don't may be that it's almost never rational to start a new project over sending out a resume. The resume offers the possibility of immedi…

That consulting is pro-cyclical surprises me - I always figured that large corporations had some people who weren't terribly efficient and that in a downturn they would be cut and their workloads would be outsourced to a 3rd party, whom the employer wouldn't need to offer perks and raises and who would have to pay full FICA him/herself.

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#23
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consulting/temping is very much pro-cyclical. The consultants and temps are the first to go when the economy goes down, and the last to be hired back. Playing devil's advocate here (your suggestion is exactly what I'd do, and it's worked fairly well for me), but... One reason they don't may be that it's almost never rational to start a new project over sending out a resume. The resume offers the possibility of immedi…

That consulting is pro-cyclical surprises me - I always figured that large corporations had some people who weren't terribly efficient and that in a downturn they would be cut and their workloads would be outsourced to a 3rd party, whom the employer wouldn't need to offer perks and raises and who would have to pay full FICA him/herself.

It's a huge pain to fire an employee - there're dozens of potential "wrongful termination" lawsuit hitches, and if you run into any of them, you've just cost the company more in legal bills than you'll ever save in that employee's salary. For that reason, companies usually will keep full-timers even if they aren't quite as efficient as consultants or new hires, because the costs of getting it wrong and inviting a lawsuit don't outweigh the marginal benefits. Unless the employee is grossly incompetent, in which case you both save more in lost productivity, and there's a lower chance of a successful lawsuit...

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#24
post #6

You have to wonder how much selection bias skews this. It seems like "those who would complete more school" isn't that far off from "those who are ambitious and willing to work hard". Without schooling, I wonder how well that second group would perform. Pretty well, I'd think.

Similarly, there is no indication they have adjusted the results for IQ. According to some estimates "each IQ point raises worker productivity 1.76-2.38%" where I take "worker productivity" to mean lifetime earnings. http://www.ehponline.org/members/2002/110p563-569grosse/gros...

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#25
The direction of causation may be wrong here, because economists of education, sociologists, and other persons familiar with the data are well aware that young people from well-off families are much more likely to begin higher education and much more likely to complete it than poor young people.

Here are some links about the issue. The overall picture in the past decade has been that high-ability, low-income students are at a clear disadvantage in the college admission process compared to low-ability, high-income students. (The links below are in approximate chronological order of publication, from oldest to newest.) Is anything changing recently about this?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_27/b3840045_...

http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ffp0621.pdf

http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ff0615S.pdf

http://www.tcf.org/Publications/Education/carnrose.pdf

http://www.tcf.org/Publications/Education/kahlenberg-affacti...

http://harvardmagazine.com/2005/05/a-thumb-on-the-scale.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200511/financial-aid-leveragi...

http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=510012

http://www.equaleducation.org/commentary.asp?opedid=1240

http://www.jkcf.org/assets/files/0000/0084/Achievement_Trap....

http://www.reason.com/news/show/123910.html

http://www.ihep.org/publications/publications-detail.cfm?id=...

http://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2008/11...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkBGMsvJKR...

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#26
Note to recent graduates about the value of your degree:

I graduated right after 9/11. Right after. I remember when I was in school that our local paper had 5 pages of jobs open in my field. Good paying jobs even for those with no experience. By the time I got my diploma in the mail, I had not had one single phone call. Those 5 pages of ads had been reduced to a single column on the back of the sports page.

I remember going over and over to the University career center week after week trying to polish my resume, going to mock interviews.

At one time, I had started calling companies up and offering to work as an entry-level engineer for minimum wage if they would just give me a place to use my skills.

No such luck.

In the end, I got a job working in a warehouse for very little money. Over just a few months, the economy go a little better and I ended up getting a job as an engineer for a tiny firm that went out of business.

After I did get some experience, I have found it easier and easier to obtain a job. Even to the point I am at right now where two groups at my current job are in a fight to win me over for a new assignment. Even in this terrible economy.

Here is my advice:

Your degree is worth something....

Don't take the economy personally. They don't want to hire you right now because they can get an expert cheap instead. This will change with time.

Right now is a great time to think about Graduate School. When you graduate you will be light years ahead of your peers. Promotions will come much easier for you later down the road with a graduate degree.

Please don't give up. Your loans can be deferred. Spend some quality time with your friends and family.

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#27

I'm kinda wondering what the variance is on these numbers. I'd imagine that the doctoral numbers have quite a few tenured professors and industrial researchers making six figures, but the median is shifted downwards by a large number of postdocs making $30-40K. If having a masters basically guarantees you a salary of $60K, but getting a doctorate means you have a 50% chance of making $30K and a 50% chance of making $…

There aren't that many tenured professors making six figures. I suspect the PhD numbers are high due to the quants making 7-8 figures.

The Ph.D. distribution is probably concentrated towards the bottom with a few spikes (guys like D.E. Shaw) raising the average.

Re: Education Pays: 2008 Unemployment, Pay, and Education Level

#28

I'm kinda wondering what the variance is on these numbers. I'd imagine that the doctoral numbers have quite a few tenured professors and industrial researchers making six figures, but the median is shifted downwards by a large number of postdocs making $30-40K. If having a masters basically guarantees you a salary of $60K, but getting a doctorate means you have a 50% chance of making $30K and a 50% chance of making $…

There aren't that many tenured professors making six figures. I suspect the PhD numbers are high due to the quants making 7-8 figures. The Ph.D. distribution is probably concentrated towards the bottom with a few spikes (guys like D.E. Shaw) raising the average.

Well, this is a median, not a mean, so the quants can't raise it that much. A bifurcated distribution with a couple peaks could though, which is why I was thinking tenured professors + industrial researchers + Googlers on one end, with post-docs on the other.
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