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If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

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Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#61

Post by yummyfajitas »

jasonlotito wrote: post #23
yummyfajitas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are flipping conservatives and liberals. Liberals tend to rely on authority and hierarchies (the state, and similar authority figures), whereas conservatives tend to rely on communities and relationships (church, family, secular community orgs). Or am I misinterpreting something here?

Probably. Church's and families are "authority" and have a "hierarchy". Respect the church, respect your elders. The organizations generally have rules and procedures. You might need to pay to be apart, or there might be other restrictions. Liberals don't see the state as an authority, but rather, the community. After all, the people you are working with are literally neighbors, locals, friends. This also works with…

As far as I'm aware, most modern American protestants don't believe in doing whatever your parents or pastor tell you. They view the church as voluntary organizations people can join to help them be better people and get closer to god. Similarly, I don't think most people view family as authority, at least once the kids get a job and move out.

Admittedly, I'm culturally an extreme NY liberal, so I have little contact with this side of America. I've never been part of such a community, and could be totally wrong. If so, please tell me - I don't purport to have much first hand knowledge of such communities.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#62

Post by sally85 »

jmillikin wrote: post #53
yummyfajitas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are flipping conservatives and liberals. Liberals tend to rely on authority and hierarchies (the state, and similar authority figures), whereas conservatives tend to rely on communities and relationships (church, family, secular community orgs). Or am I misinterpreting something here?

> Or am I misinterpreting something here? To be brief, yes. Conservationism has historically been associated with a strong central government, under the belief that a selected group of suitable people are better at governing than the general population. The definition of "suitable" has changed throughout the years: typical examples are "King chosen by divine right" or "general with enough troops to seize the capital"…

I'm not sure where you live, but American conservatives favor power in the states (i.e. decentralization). American liberals favor power in the federal government (i.e. centralization).

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#63

Post by eli_gottlieb »

johngalt wrote: post #15
ck2 wrote: post #5

What I always enjoy reading, from an intellectual sense and not a "ha ha" sense, is "awakening" stories when people are raised super conservative and follow that path - until they have a personal experience that enlightens them that it's not ideal. Watching self-discovery instead of being hit over the head with it is always fascinating.

I enjoy reading that every generation thought that in 50 years there will be no more conservatives. Every 20 something thinks with absolute certainty that their political views wont change with age. And that it's only a matter of time until the rest of the world catches up to their 'correct' views.

I enjoy reading that every generation thought that in 50 years there will be no more conservatives.

And in their defense, conservatives have been getting steadily more "liberal" every generation. Even my grandmother doesn't hate other races and ethnicities from us the way her grandmother did. Grandma even crossed one of her our people's real lines by accepting my Christian girlfriend.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#64

Post by foob »

But you may also be struck by the shape of that trend line (Sen is quick to note, by the way, that he's not a statistician). It roughly suggests a political tipping point somewhere around a population density of about 800-1,000 people per square mile.

My guess would be that this is a linear fit using a least squares minimization. The fit is dominated by the upper right portion of the plot and has a relatively arbitrary x-intercept of around -10. Population density going negative doesn't make sense and shouldn't be a feature of a reasonable model. There's no tipping point, it's just how the line shows up on a log plot and it's almost entirely determined by the data with population density much great than 1000.

I think it would make a more sense to plot population density on the x-axis because the scatter in the data is really coming from the Cook PVI rather than the population density and the Cook PVI can be interpreted as a dependent variable. We know very precisely what the populations are and we can also see that the magnitude of the Cook PVI scatter looks roughly constant as a function of population density. After this a simple least squares fit would be more reasonable to apply but again a line would not fit the data at all. Just by eye I would say that (Cook PVI)=AxLog[ (Population Density)xB ] would do a much better job modeling the distribution.

Overall, it's a nice plot to motivate discussion but the fit doesn't really add anything to it and might even detract from it.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#65

Post by lukifer »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #17
lukifer wrote: post #2

I've recently become fascinated by the concept that one's political affiliation tends to sync up with one's dominant survival strategy. If you rely most on communities and relationships, you tend to be liberal; if you rely most on authority and hierarchies, you tend to be conservative; if you rely most on your own skills, you tend to be libertarian. http://www.meltingasphalt.com/the-ecology-of-personal-politi...

I think you are flipping conservatives and liberals. Liberals tend to rely on authority and hierarchies (the state, and similar authority figures), whereas conservatives tend to rely on communities and relationships (church, family, secular community orgs). Or am I misinterpreting something here?

The terms have become muddy and overlapping in popular usage.

Liberals do fuel a larger central government, but the narrative comes in the form of "we". Government is seen a vessel for popular will: "taking care of the homeless/planet/etc is our responsibility".

Conservatives are community-oriented, but tend to support authority as a valid context for community creation, from God and pastor in a church, to a security state to keep community safe, to the value of elders and traditions.

Libertarians, meanwhile, have a characteristically hard time unifying, being either out on the fringe, or split between the parties: the anti-war libertarians hold their nose and lean blue, and the anti-nanny-state libertarians hold their nose and lean red.

Very few people unilaterally reject any of the three survival strategies. It comes down to which is most prominent in the story you tell yourself about what a perfect world would be, and your role within it.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#66

Post by eli_gottlieb »

jmillikin wrote: post #60
yummyfajitas wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly if lukifer is using the terms "liberal" and "conservative" as you've defined them (rather than their meanings in conventional American politics), he is correct. My mistake.

Be careful with meanings in "conventional American politics", because they shift from day to day. A position that's quite conservative one year (e.g. "force everyone to pay for health insurance") might become liberal the next.

But never the reverse. Never /bitter.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#67

Post by whyenot »

ctdonath wrote: post #4
lukifer wrote: post #2

I've recently become fascinated by the concept that one's political affiliation tends to sync up with one's dominant survival strategy. If you rely most on communities and relationships, you tend to be liberal; if you rely most on authority and hierarchies, you tend to be conservative; if you rely most on your own skills, you tend to be libertarian. http://www.meltingasphalt.com/the-ecology-of-personal-politi...

Consider applying the r/K Selection Theory to politics. Makes a disturbing amount of sense: http://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/the-theory/rk-sele...

This makes about as much sense as applying continental drift to explain the series finale of Breaking Bad.

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#68

Post by eli_gottlieb »

ck2 wrote: post #48
johngalt wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I enjoy reading that every generation thought that in 50 years there will be no more conservatives. Every 20 something thinks with absolute certainty that their political views wont change with age. And that it's only a matter of time until the rest of the world catches up to their 'correct' views.

The problem with just saying "conservative" is there are fiscal conservatives and then there are social conservatives. You think 50 years ago they ever thought there would be gay conservatives? Conservatives that would support gay marriage? So they aren't socially conservative, at least not completely. On the other side, I am not sure how to explain this properly but I find I am less liberal with age but even more pr…

Basically, cultural/lifestyle issues, military issues, and economic issues are intertwined, but largely separate. You can be a "fiscal conservative, social liberal" proprietarian, and you can also be a "economic social-democrat, social conservative" (like most of the working-class population in most countries, by the way). Or you can go "full partisan retard", pick one "side" of the "spectrum", and take that "side" on every separate spectrum, thus resulting in the traditional strawmen of "liberals" or "conservatives".

Personally, I've actually become more culturally liberal the further I get out of university. College liberals are awful and horrendously stupid to boot, but seeing people who've left their parents' support and still manage to hold liberal positions drives me towards that position.

Kind of like how conservatives tend to oppose gay marriage right up until meeting the average actual gay couple, and realizing that, hold on, those "godless liberals" are just like us "normal, decent folk"!

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#69

Post by jmillikin »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #66
jmillikin wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be careful with meanings in "conventional American politics", because they shift from day to day. A position that's quite conservative one year (e.g. "force everyone to pay for health insurance") might become liberal the next.

But never the reverse. Never /bitter.

Are you joking? Remember that Obama was against warrantless wiretaps during his candidacy.

http://thisishistorictimes.com/2009/04/all-the-better-to-hea...

Re: If You Live Near Other People, You're Probably a Democrat.

#70

Post by jmillikin »

sally85 wrote: post #62
jmillikin wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or am I misinterpreting something here? To be brief, yes. Conservationism has historically been associated with a strong central government, under the belief that a selected group of suitable people are better at governing than the general population. The definition of "suitable" has changed throughout the years: typical examples are "King chosen by divine right" or "general with enough troops to seize the capital"…

I'm not sure where you live, but American conservatives favor power in the states (i.e. decentralization). American liberals favor power in the federal government (i.e. centralization).

Historically, the American federal government has been much more circumspect in its use of power against citizens than the state- and local-level governments. The NSA might be sniffing your packets, but the highway patrol is confiscating your cash and the local police department is shooting up your car.
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