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The Future of Web Startups

paulgraham.com

141–150 of 173 posts

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#141
post #131
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just imagine the level of job candidates you could be selecting amongst if you were the only one hiring from a population as big as the black community. In any competitive field, employers are fairly limited in how 'racist' they can be in their hiring practices without setting themselves up for a fall.

Sure, but there are a lot of fields that aren't really that competitive (where you simply hire cheap laborers who basically work about the same), and where the pressure to conform may be higher than the pressure to find an employee that is 2% better than the next guy.

Even then, widespread aversion to hiring from one of two equally productive groups creates a big incentive to break the mold. And that incentive will only keep increasing as long as no one steps out. In the limit case, you pretty much have access to an 'unlimited' pool of free labor. This line of reasoning does presuppose a reasonably free country, though.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#142
post #138
post #88

"At the moment, there is no one within big companies who gets in trouble when they buy a startup for $200 million that they could have bought earlier for $20 million. There should start to be someone who gets in trouble for that." I think it's right that startups will be acquired earlier and earlier, but that makes me wonder: might those earlier acquisitions (which sometimes decrease productivity to 1/13th what it wa…

I wondered if anyone would bring that up. I think another thing that will happen is that acquirers will figure out how not to ruin the startups they buy. A company that bought a bunch of hot startups early on and didn't destroy their productivity would be a force to reckon with.

It seems the act of acquiring does a lot of damage all by itself. One thing that would probably go a long way would be if the acquiring company kept the acquisition process short, sweet and easy.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#143
post #139

Hmm. I find the argument for unlimited concentration of startups in startup hubs somewhat unconvincing. If the number of startups founded goes up by an order of magnitude or two, then the need to move to Silicon Valley in order to be in a startup-rich environment goes down. Now, I do think that startups will still move, but I think that the number of hubs they can choose among to move to will be increasing as well. I…

That is a valid objection. Though there are only 5 or 6 web startup hubs, out of the thousands of similar sized towns in the world. That number could increase by a factor of 10, and it would still be likely that you'd have to move. And in any case I doubt the number would increase. The power of hubs is self-perpetuating. So no matter how many startups originated in St. Louis, there wouldn't be a lot there when a give…

> Also there's the empirical argument: I can't think of one industry in history whose growth made the established centers irrelevant.

How about textiles, after the spinning wheel came to Europe and the cottage industry developed?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#144
This already happened to me. Early on I realized that grades weren't that important and the best thing about going to school was having time to take huge intellectual risks with few consequences. In addition to the basic computer science concepts I learned, I also took on personal projects that caught my interest.

Through these projects I learned new ways of making things using current technologies like Ruby on Rails, Python, Mapreduce, Amazon S3 (and friends), Lisp, and other technologies that someone simply fulfilling the graduate requirements would likely not have learned. I also met great people along the way who were far more impressive than any programmer, designer, or manager I've met in the industry.

Oddly enough, now I'm in grad school, hacking the iPhone for a degree.

Eventually, I imagine that my continual curiosity will bring me to the startup arena, or perhaps to the international sphere.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#145
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he's suggesting that they could be accused of it. Startups are disproportionately started by men, most of whom are white or Asian. Paul Graham says not to blame on malice what you can attribute to math, but other people might not see it that way. "I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons." What is…

I'll take a stab at this. I recently read one of Milton Friedman's books, and I liked it a lot. His pursuit of freedom is admirable, and something that I can understand. He even suggests that freedom is more important than using government power to attempt to stop racism, for instance by letting people choose not to hire black people (as an example). That got me to thinking though. While I'm attracted to the sentimen…

I'm such a person. I haven't read Friedman, but I'll be happy to ramble on about Rothbard for as long you'd like :-)

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#146
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a valid objection. Though there are only 5 or 6 web startup hubs, out of the thousands of similar sized towns in the world. That number could increase by a factor of 10, and it would still be likely that you'd have to move. And in any case I doubt the number would increase. The power of hubs is self-perpetuating. So no matter how many startups originated in St. Louis, there wouldn't be a lot there when a give…

> Also there's the empirical argument: I can't think of one industry in history whose growth made the established centers irrelevant. How about textiles, after the spinning wheel came to Europe and the cottage industry developed?

The spinning wheel replaced the distaff, which was even lower tech.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#147
Paul excellent essay but I disagree on one point. A college education is more than learning about business. It is to be informed to make better decisions re public issues. The elite college issue is very true. Note how most VCs and investment bankers tout their "Ivy" pedigree. Very few of them could start a lemonade stand.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#148

Paul excellent essay but I disagree on one point. A college education is more than learning about business. It is to be informed to make better decisions re public issues. The elite college issue is very true. Note how most VCs and investment bankers tout their "Ivy" pedigree. Very few of them could start a lemonade stand.

I certainly don't think a college education is a matter of learning about business. Where did I say that?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#149
Do you have any comments on the similarity in ideas which early founders share. Essentially an idea emerges out of ones experience of life. Most of life's problems are out of context for undergrads. I am 22 ear old myself, have started, but this thought is bugging me.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#150
post #139

Hmm. I find the argument for unlimited concentration of startups in startup hubs somewhat unconvincing. If the number of startups founded goes up by an order of magnitude or two, then the need to move to Silicon Valley in order to be in a startup-rich environment goes down. Now, I do think that startups will still move, but I think that the number of hubs they can choose among to move to will be increasing as well. I…

That is a valid objection. Though there are only 5 or 6 web startup hubs, out of the thousands of similar sized towns in the world. That number could increase by a factor of 10, and it would still be likely that you'd have to move. And in any case I doubt the number would increase. The power of hubs is self-perpetuating. So no matter how many startups originated in St. Louis, there wouldn't be a lot there when a give…

Yes, I did say you would probably still move (and still want to move). But not necessarily to SV.

If there are 'only' 5-6 startup hubs today, not too long ago there was only one. Since the other 4-5 hubs managed to grow in spite of SV's existence (and dominance), I do expect this number to increase further, by one order of magnitude at least.

I don't think the star-system is necessarily a relevant analogy because it is focusing on individuals, who as actors, actually have quite a few more options than just Hollywood. Rather, what would happen if 50% of the next generation of movie producers and production companies were from St. Louis (or Bollywood)? Or, for a different scenario, 50% of the next generation of SFX and post-production companies? Do they all have to move to Hollywood? Can some of them move back? For some types of companies, It's actually demonstrable that they don't all make the move, and a rash of soundstages and post-production facilities are sprouting up in secondary hubs across the US because Hollywood is too expensive and crowded.

Your empirical argument is well taken. By no means was I arguing that SV would become irrelevant to the current industry because of growth per-se, but you're assuming that startups are (and will remain) an 'industry', and second, that they will remain the same industry.

Personally, I anticipate quite a bit more disruption and creative destruction than that. The US rust-belt is testimony that further growth in an industry can under the right circumstances pass existing hubs by, eventually making them irrelevant because the industry itself has changed in fundamental ways. It is also possible that 'startups' might get distributed into the broader economic fabric as thoroughly as 'web design' or 'desktop publishing'. This may actually be required if companies in all industries (in industry-specific hubs everywhere) are to grow by acquiring startups rather than hiring.

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