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China's Empty Cities

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Re: China's Empty Cities

#21

Post by xtqctz »

jfoster wrote: post #17
205guy wrote: post #12

Can foreigners buy/rent there? After living in cars, RVs, and the wilderness, will edgy hackers go for cheap digs and cheap food in the 90% empty Paris replica in the hinterlands of China? Get a dozen friends together and start something there. I'm sure you can find some cheap programmers there too. Heck, you could start a zh-combinator there.

If they were cheap, they wouldn't be ghost cities. They're ghost cities because poor people got kicked out of their homes to build expensive buildings that they now won't let go of for low prices. Eventually of course they'll need to sell it, once China's real estate bubble starts to pop.

Expensive for farmers who make $2kUSD per annum. Even in the central districts of tier two Chinese cities[1], rent is only $200-300/month for a decent two bedroom. In which case, they ought to just move to a functioning city. My total monthly expenses (rent, food, leisure, taxis, reasonably fast internet) are often [1]ie not Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou

Re: China's Empty Cities

#22

Post by r0h1n »

eru wrote: post #14
r0h1n wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add further, doesn't America have its own share of "ghost cities" that were once booming but are now decrepit? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ghost_towns_in_the_Uni... I'd be more interested in why two such different countries as the US and China seem to have independently arrived at the same problem of ghost cities. We know that China's problems arise from a top-down, state-directed model of development un…

Also India is much more densely populated.

True, but the examples in these cases are of cities that appeared to have been created anew - in China'a case in the middle of nowhere. India could never afford to create massive new cities using state funds like that, so it's city growth was organic by force, not by choice.

Also the reason these cities are ghosts isn't because there aren't enough people in China (it is after all the world's most populous country), but because they were ill-planned in terms of economic/social benefits for residents.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#23

Post by thomasd »

One thing not mentioned here is how much the Chinese value brand new properties. By brand new I mean, properties that have never been used/lived in.

It's a common trend in real estate where investors buy properties and leave it vacant to brag about the place being brand new to sell at a higher price in the future.

This is likely to exacerbate the "empty" cities problem in China.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#24

Post by vidarh »

vitno wrote: post #8

I just took a train from Shanghai down to 黄山. While I can't confirm there are entirely empty cities (I don't doubt it though), There were massive modern housing complexes... with no one in them. It was so surreal.

I'm in London. There are dozens of massive modern housing complexes... with no one in them. It takes time, and often the builders prefer to sell slowly at high prices rather than drop the prices enough to sell quickly.

I'm not saying none of these represents a problem, but it's not a given that large empty developments do. Especially in areas with very rapid growth.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#25

Post by [deleted] »

vidarh wrote: post #24
vitno wrote: post #8

I just took a train from Shanghai down to 黄山. While I can't confirm there are entirely empty cities (I don't doubt it though), There were massive modern housing complexes... with no one in them. It was so surreal.

I'm in London. There are dozens of massive modern housing complexes... with no one in them. It takes time, and often the builders prefer to sell slowly at high prices rather than drop the prices enough to sell quickly. I'm not saying none of these represents a problem, but it's not a given that large empty developments do. Especially in areas with very rapid growth.

[deleted]

Re: China's Empty Cities

#26

Post by seanmcdirmid »

r0h1n wrote: post #20
hrkristian wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if you're baiting for a conspiracy, but I'd go as far as to say top level politics are to blame in both countries, albeit more directly in the case of China.

Nope, not baiting. Genuine question.

America's ghost towns were once thriving and now are deserted. China's ghost cities are relatively new and have never thrived before; they are just symptoms of a huge real estate bubble.

China overbuilds way too much, even in thriving cities like Shanghai and Beijing will you find almost completely deserted shopping malls.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#27

Post by seanmcdirmid »

xtqctz wrote: post #21
jfoster wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they were cheap, they wouldn't be ghost cities. They're ghost cities because poor people got kicked out of their homes to build expensive buildings that they now won't let go of for low prices. Eventually of course they'll need to sell it, once China's real estate bubble starts to pop.

Expensive for farmers who make $2kUSD per annum. Even in the central districts of tier two Chinese cities[1], rent is only $200-300/month for a decent two bedroom. In which case, they ought to just move to a functioning city. My total monthly expenses (rent, food, leisure, taxis, reasonably fast internet) are often [1]ie not Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou

The farmers can't afford it, who can? China also has to reform its hukou system before these cities can really become viable communities; for a foreign kid having fun, whatever, but what if you had a family to worry about...medical care, schooling, and other social welfares become very important.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#28

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Volpe wrote: post #18

It is really hard to work out the truth of these stories. They always mention these as "Ghost Cities" but the numbers are always mentioned like "This city was meant to house upto a million people"... a million people, is not a city, it's a large suburb. Or a very small city (in China), given they always build with med-high density housing. Could the reporters please do there job and ask the farmers out of earshot of…

In Europe and much of America, any urban area with > 50k is often called a city. Heck, even around 10k could be called a city under certain circumstances.

The properties of concern are more like satellite cities. Often in crappy remote locations outside the original city's outer ring road.

Re: China's Empty Cities

#29

Post by seanmcdirmid »

yaix wrote: post #19
vitno wrote: post #8

I just took a train from Shanghai down to 黄山. While I can't confirm there are entirely empty cities (I don't doubt it though), There were massive modern housing complexes... with no one in them. It was so surreal.

Those will get filled with people within about two years. It works about thise way: 1. A road grid are build with 4 lane roads, redlights, etc. 2. Housing complexed are build on the resulting squares with the ground floor for business and shops. 3. Small businesses get the ground floor spaces for free for two years, to make them move in here despite not having any peolpe living there. 4. People start to move in, beca…

> Those will get filled with people within about two years. It works about thise way:

Someone told me it would be like this 3 years ago for a project that is still pretty much empty..., I assume Anhui or Hubei is similar. There is just no industry and jobs around many of these projects to support them.

> All these stories about "Chinas empty buildings" are largely bullshit. At least on the east coast.

The coast has already been developed, but go inland just a bit into Hefei or Jiangxi...its bullshit to think that these projects are anything other than the result of a bubble.

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