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It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

patrick.net

111–120 of 199 posts

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#111
I read this on patrick.net years ago-- a lot of it is quite outdated now. Basically the housing market nationwide is quite strong. Whether it will last is another question.

Just one example of the article's outdatedness-- the jumbo mortgage market is doing great now:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-03/wealthy-going-big-t...

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#112

There are a perilous lack of actual facts backing this up (and some red flags disclaimers like "in expensive areas". What does that even mean from a statistical perspective). For instance I would instant call bullshit on the rent versus owning notion based on basic economics (when rents are less than the price of the mortgage, people don't rent out houses . The notion makes absolutely no sense). Even more indicting i…

> when rents are less than the price of the mortgage, people don't rent out houses. The notion makes absolutely no sense

So they're just going to let the house sit empty? Buying/selling a house is a long term proposition because of transaction costs. Partially covering a mortgage payment temporarily is better than not recovering it at all.

If the rent payments can't cover the mortgage, they're probably going to take a hefty loss on sale, if they can sell the house at all.

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#113
post #11

As we are on the topic, which percentage of your salary going to pay up rent would you consider "sane"? Edit: I mean post tax. It's a cultural thing, in Italy we don't ever consider the gross salaries.

Mortgage is 34% post tax salary (for the couple). the interest for the loan is 3.05% (fix interest).

Do you in Italy have more fix or moving interest rate ?

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#114
post #80
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anywhere Google takes its Fiber is a good bet. This... is not as true as you think it is, even here in Silicon valley. If I could get $50/month/resident out of any of the reasonable-sized condos around here, I could easily give everyone gigabit Ethernet. Problem is? even here in the heart of silicon valley, most people don't give a shit. Faster than wi-fi doesn't matter. Hell, even you and me... I talk about bandwid…

It's never obvious why a technology is valuable before someone invents an application for it. No one knew what to do with broadband before VoD and digital delivery (Steam, GoG, app stores, etc.) came along, and we're only a few years into widespread adoption of those technologies. Anything could happen on the 5-15 year time scale we're talking about here. Gigabit Internet and the places that have it could look very a…

> No one knew what to do with broadband before VoD and digital delivery (Steam, GoG, app stores, etc.) came along, and we're only a few years into widespread adoption of those technologies

Napster, then other file-sharing services (Morpheus, Kazaa), Bittorrent, etc. This was ~25% of internet traffic in the mid-00s

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#115

There are a perilous lack of actual facts backing this up (and some red flags disclaimers like "in expensive areas". What does that even mean from a statistical perspective). For instance I would instant call bullshit on the rent versus owning notion based on basic economics (when rents are less than the price of the mortgage, people don't rent out houses . The notion makes absolutely no sense). Even more indicting i…

> when rents are less than the price of the mortgage, people don't rent out houses. The notion makes absolutely no sense So they're just going to let the house sit empty? Buying/selling a house is a long term proposition because of transaction costs. Partially covering a mortgage payment temporarily is better than not recovering it at all. If the rent payments can't cover the mortgage, they're probably going to take…

Awesome, so show me (I don't literally demand that you do, but rather mean anyone) actual data of rents that are lower than corresponding mortgages. Anecdotal evidence is very, very much to the contrary.

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#116
post #11

As we are on the topic, which percentage of your salary going to pay up rent would you consider "sane"? Edit: I mean post tax. It's a cultural thing, in Italy we don't ever consider the gross salaries.

0%. I saved up and bought the cheapest house I could for cash escape the high cost of rent around London.

I can now save double quick for my longer term house.

It's a short term pain living in a small flat with a long commute, but the strategy will hopefully pay off in the long run with all of the rent and mortgage interest avoided.

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#117

Or 10 reasons why it is a great time to buy a cheap house. I bought a roughly ~$100k home back in 09 which I could now rent for about $800-900 per month. There is a nice little house on a smaller lot right around the corner listed for only $65k. For somebody like me that has a decent income and decent credit the opportunities to buy nice little rental properties and make a tidy rental income have never been better it…

What part of the country do you live in? I bet it is not in the SF bay area ;-)

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#118

I think the madness won't end until we stop looking at housing as an investment vehicle. Housing is an expense. We're all renters to some extent. Even when I own my home "in the clear," I'll continue to have tax and maintenance obligations forever. There's also a very real lifestyle component. If it's a purely fiscal decision, we should all be renting in Dayton, Ohio. That's why these sorts of articles drive me nuts.…

I've always been confused about the housing as investment idea. We don't consider cars to be an investment either do we? I feel like the idea can only help to drive the prices up further.

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#119
post #72
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tepid Twitter IPO right on the back of Facebook's might convince people to start looking to places with higher growth potential. Anywhere Google takes its Fiber is a good bet. I don't know about a bust, but things can only go so high before people with money and ambition start looking elsewhere.

>Anywhere Google takes its Fiber is a good bet. This... is not as true as you think it is, even here in Silicon valley. If I could get $50/month/resident out of any of the reasonable-sized condos around here, I could easily give everyone gigabit Ethernet. Problem is? even here in the heart of silicon valley, most people don't give a shit. Faster than wi-fi doesn't matter. Hell, even you and me... I talk about bandwid…

Do you mean provide everyone shared access to gigabit Ethernet? Or each unit gigabit Ethernet. Those are likely two very different things.

Re: It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

#120
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anywhere Google takes its Fiber is a good bet. This... is not as true as you think it is, even here in Silicon valley. If I could get $50/month/resident out of any of the reasonable-sized condos around here, I could easily give everyone gigabit Ethernet. Problem is? even here in the heart of silicon valley, most people don't give a shit. Faster than wi-fi doesn't matter. Hell, even you and me... I talk about bandwid…

Do you mean provide everyone shared access to gigabit Ethernet? Or each unit gigabit Ethernet. Those are likely two very different things.

>Do you mean provide everyone shared access to gigabit Ethernet? Or each unit gigabit Ethernet. Those are likely two very different things.

Obviously, we're not talking about datacenter-levels of oversubscription. You'd be talking consumer-levels of oversubscription. Yes, this would be an oversubscribed gigabit link, really a whole lot like DSL, except that instead of 10Mbps max, you get 1000Mbps max, and because the physical plant is so much cleaner, you could do much better QoS.

I mean, a shitty datacenter-level gige link delivered to a data center where the provider has a POP (if you are only buying a single gigabit; this stuff gets way cheaper as you buy in bulk) is about $750/month. Less if you know people, more if you sound like you have money when you call the sales rep; maybe 3x to 5x that if you want a big name. ($750 is what the he.net guys will quote you straight off.)

You would, of course, put 50 or 100 folks on that gigE link. Would this mean that everyone would get 1-2Mbps? not unless everyone was running the link full-throttle all the time.

This is... not dissimilar to the over-subscription ratios on DSL. And it mostly works okay, because it's hard to run a gigE link full-throttle all the time. And like I said, having clean physical plant (where you know the actual maximum throughput of a line, rather than the DSL bullshit, where it's loss depends on the phase of the moon and last time it rained) makes doing QoS way easier.

In many ways, this would be a lot like DSL, in that you'd have a 'star' topology within the building, each customer having a full-duplex connection to your pop within the building, then 'oversubscribe' according to cost concerns at the network edge.

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