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The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

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Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#101
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What "government policies" are you talking about?

Off the top of my head, both the interest rate cap that passed this summer and the President's recent student loan proposals? What else would be under discussion here? EDIT: nevermind, apparently both you and drcode are discussing hypotheticals only.

Sorry this thread got kind of ugly, jessaustin, your comment is actually very pertinent, I think :-)

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but a credit card requires credit. Student loans are specifically crafted to be obtainable by people with no income and no credit.

I know the credit cards companies have cut back on this, but. . .credit cards for students don't require credit. . .and are specifically crafted to be obtainable by students with no income or credit. Students with income and/or credit can get better deals with "non-student" credit cards.

Indeed, and when I was a student I got my first credit card with a modest job (< $10k). What was my initial credit limit? $400.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but a credit card requires credit. Student loans are specifically crafted to be obtainable by people with no income and no credit.

It is pretty impossible and probably unreasonable to expect your average college freshmen to have a good credit rating.

No one expects them to. The point is the credit card company accepts the risk of default on no-collateral loans in part because they have confidence (credit report) in the chances of being paid back, while a student typically has no such supporting evidence to back their case.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#104
post #99
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. A free app. The data points of the app users are sold to employers.

The only difference here is who is paying who. "Run an online university. Oh yeah, the university is an app, not a website, and therefore super trendy." is not a "perfect opportunity for hackers" . The actual software involved with such a proposal is chump-work.

Writing a really good app that is both enjoyable for students and a rigorous test of ability that employers are looking for is not chump work.

If you can show employers that your app truly tests useful abilities they would be lining up. The current education system fails at producing workers with the right skills and employers are always complaining abou this.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#105
post #90
post #57

Perfect opportunity for hackers. Employers pay big money to find employees. Students pay big money to get educated to get a job. Hackers roll in with apps that allow students to do courses for free on the smartphone/tablet, sell the info of the students to employers, who then hire the students. Everyone wins. Hackers are proclaimed heros.

So... an online college with a placement department.

[deleted]

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#106
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that that is exactly the gamble that a student is taking, that when finished there will be earning ability that will enable them to pay off the loans. Is this a reasonable bet to make? What is the earning potential of someone with a college degree? Isn't it something like a $1M+ increase over one's lifetime?

The problem is that your debt, if measured at the end of your lifetime, will also balloon WAY out of control. Simple example, 30 years after college, 40k usd in debt gets you to 462k at 8.5% annual. That is, assuming you get a job immediately that truly translates in higher earnings, which a lot of times isn't true.

Well yes you have to pay it back before the end of your lifetime.

WSJ had article on student debt recently, with lots of data. Median debt load was 18-19k USD [1]

If it were all via Federal Stafford loan, the interest rate would be 3.9%. If the payback period was 10 years, the monthly payment would be a whopping $191 per month.

[1] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732443200457830...

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#107
The worst part of this thing is that students loans do not need to be that high because college costs should not be that high. Student loans are artificially high because of two reasons: 1. Government subsidies 2. Increasing college costs

Government subsidies are there because the government knows that a kid who goes to college will be able to give a better return on it 'public' investment, since lifetime earnings for a college educated individual are about 50-100% higher than a high school one. This will make them pay more taxes etc.

The schools on the other hand are taking the subsidized college loans in the form of tuition and fees and using them not to increase educational standards, but rather, invest in extracurriculars, building etc. The government does not tie college loan financing to college performance at all, so effectively it just subsidizes the borrowing costs for school in the form of cheap college loans.

(shameless plug) I wrote a blog post about this if anyone is interested to read more:

https://medium.com/i-m-h-o/35d383a4fbad

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#108
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think calling it a "bubble" is a way to put it into immediately recognizable terms for people. And according to your definition of what a bubble is, it could be an apt description. From wikipedia: "It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future," which to me sounds a lot like the current student loan situation. The tuition cos…

Not sure you apply that definition at all. Education is not an asset-- it can't be transferred ie sold like a house can. Along the same lines, there is no incentive or ability to buy an extra degree in Vegas, Phoenix, or Miami, just because prices are going up there.

It's an asset from the point of view of the bank or institution that made the loan. And they can transfer those assets from one investor to another. And the value of those assets can be based on unrealistic expectations about future default rates, so in that sense, student loans certainly can be a "bubble".

The real damage done to the economy by the mortgage bubble wasn't all of the people who lost money on homes when prices collapse. The most damage was due to the effect it had on banks' balance sheets when their assets (the value of debt-backed securities) lost value, which meant they had to call loans and restrict credit to make up for the difference. In that sense, a bursting of the student loan "bubble" could also have damaging effects on the economy.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#109
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What "government policies" are you talking about?

Off the top of my head, both the interest rate cap that passed this summer and the President's recent student loan proposals? What else would be under discussion here? EDIT: nevermind, apparently both you and drcode are discussing hypotheticals only.

Those affect government loans, not the private ones which are the subject of the posted article. The loans issued by JP Morgan do not have their rate capped; indeed they float and are indexed to LIBOR.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#110
post #104
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only difference here is who is paying who. "Run an online university. Oh yeah, the university is an app, not a website, and therefore super trendy." is not a "perfect opportunity for hackers" . The actual software involved with such a proposal is chump-work.

Writing a really good app that is both enjoyable for students and a rigorous test of ability that employers are looking for is not chump work. If you can show employers that your app truly tests useful abilities they would be lining up. The current education system fails at producing workers with the right skills and employers are always complaining abou this.

What you are looking for is Khan Academy. Khan Academy with enough content, with sufficiently rigorous content, with sufficiently rigorous evaluation, to become accredited so that employers will value their assessment of a students worth. Actually, they would need to be better than merely being accredited, since employers sure aren't bending over backwards to pay accredited universities serious cash for access to their students.

See, what is Khan Academy really lacking at this point? Is the hard part their website with youtube hosted videos? Are they really just jonesing for some mobile developers? Or is producing quality content with broad coverage and depth their bottleneck?

Making an app is the easy part. Education is not failing for want of an app. Certainly not for want of a gamified app.

But hey, I can't stop you. Knock yourself out. Hell, pitch it to YC; I hear they are doing non-profits now.

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