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The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

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Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#91
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who says assets have to be transferrable. Is life insurance not an asset, even though, obviously, it's not transferrable?

Life insurance can be collected upon. How does one cash in a degree?

You can't directly, but a lot of people hope to get a reasonable rate of return on their degree, career-wise.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#92
post #43

Pretty good overview and opinion of the status quo and historical retrospective here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732416520457902... ? "Politicians subsidize the purchase of a good or service, prices inevitably rise in response to this pumped-up demand, and then the pols blame the provider of the good or service for responding to the incentives the politicians created. Think housing finance and medic…

Adding "$1 trillion in student loans to the federal balance sheet over a decade" is a result of direct lending, ie cutting out the middleman. It is also saving the taxpayer money to the tune of $70B over ten years.

I think the headline here implies that the said middleman is unsure about the viability of the market, so any savings figure is dependent on low loan default figure.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#93
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not arguing since you know way more about this than I do but I'm curious: I've thought of a lot of the problem with the college loan situation as exactly "speculation" since people are gambling that the job they get on the other side is going to let them pay off the giant loans easily. No, people don't buy and sell degrees but isn't there a lot of speculation type behavior going on?

I agree that that is exactly the gamble that a student is taking, that when finished there will be earning ability that will enable them to pay off the loans. Is this a reasonable bet to make? What is the earning potential of someone with a college degree? Isn't it something like a $1M+ increase over one's lifetime?

The problem is that your debt, if measured at the end of your lifetime, will also balloon WAY out of control. Simple example, 30 years after college, 40k usd in debt gets you to 462k at 8.5% annual. That is, assuming you get a job immediately that truly translates in higher earnings, which a lot of times isn't true.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#94
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Playing devil's advocate, isn't it fair to remove the ability to discharge student loan debt and in term the default risk due to the fact that there is no collateral? Unlike a car loan or a mortgage, a bank can't repossess your education.

A lot of credit card debt has no collateral either, but that can be discharged in bankruptcy; why not student loans? And I suppose credit card companies could try to re-possess the goods purchased with credit cards (obviously not the services), but they don't. (And it makes sense not to; not worth it financially). FWIW, I have no student loan debt so I'm relatively neutral on this.

The issue is at the end of a normal Bankruptcy proceeding, assets are sold to repay the note. Lets say you go out and buy a rental property for $500k, if you never make a payment the bank can repossess the rental property and sell it to recover their loan. Your asset is gone, you have no way of making any kind of income from it after it has been repossessed.

With student debt its different, if you went to undergrad at MIT then did an MBA at Standford - you are probably looking at north of $100k in debt. If one year after college you defaulted and it was discharged, you would still retain the 'asset' (your education). You could go out the next day and get a nice job at google and continue to earn income from your asset. The bank has no recourse to prevent you from continuing to use the asset they loaned you money for. This is one of the main reasons that you can't discharge student loan debt. No one is going to come take your degree away from you if you don't pay.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#95
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Playing devil's advocate, isn't it fair to remove the ability to discharge student loan debt and in term the default risk due to the fact that there is no collateral? Unlike a car loan or a mortgage, a bank can't repossess your education.

A lot of credit card debt has no collateral either, but that can be discharged in bankruptcy; why not student loans? And I suppose credit card companies could try to re-possess the goods purchased with credit cards (obviously not the services), but they don't. (And it makes sense not to; not worth it financially). FWIW, I have no student loan debt so I'm relatively neutral on this.

Credit cards also carry interest rates based on that risk. Do you think student loans would work with 25% interest?

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#96

It's really too bad that the laws surrounding student loans make them artificially cheap. You can't get rid of college debt through bankruptcy so you're basically saddled for life. Normally the interest you pay is the combination of three things: 1. The (inherent) time value of money 2. Expenses the lender incurs to keep up with the debt 3. The average default risk of those taking the loans Student loans only price i…

A large part of the problem is all the shitty for profit schools. They get students to take out large government backed loans, then are defaulting, since they can't actually get a job. I knew several people I grew up with who went to these schools. They took out huge loans, 10k plus, and they never landed any kind of job with their "certificates" / degrees. [1] Half of all defaults are from these kind of schools. [1]…

From that link: "Students at for-profits account for nearly half of all student loan defaults but only about 12% of post- secondary students,"

In other words, not so much "half of all defaults" but "at 4 times the rate."

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but a credit card requires credit. Student loans are specifically crafted to be obtainable by people with no income and no credit.

I know the credit cards companies have cut back on this, but. . .credit cards for students don't require credit. . .and are specifically crafted to be obtainable by students with no income or credit. Students with income and/or credit can get better deals with "non-student" credit cards.

I believe that the Credit CARD Act of 2009 changed much of that. IIRC if you are a student with no income then you need to give them a collateral the size of your credit limit.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#98
post #90
post #57

Perfect opportunity for hackers. Employers pay big money to find employees. Students pay big money to get educated to get a job. Hackers roll in with apps that allow students to do courses for free on the smartphone/tablet, sell the info of the students to employers, who then hire the students. Everyone wins. Hackers are proclaimed heros.

So... an online college with a placement department.

No.

A free app.

The data points of the app users are sold to employers.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#99
post #98
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... an online college with a placement department.

No. A free app. The data points of the app users are sold to employers.

The only difference here is who is paying who. "Run an online university. Oh yeah, the university is an app, not a website, and therefore super trendy." is not a "perfect opportunity for hackers". The actual software involved with such a proposal is chump-work.

Re: The Student Loan Bubble is Starting To Burst

#100
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adding "$1 trillion in student loans to the federal balance sheet over a decade" is a result of direct lending, ie cutting out the middleman. It is also saving the taxpayer money to the tune of $70B over ten years.

I think the headline here implies that the said middleman is unsure about the viability of the market, so any savings figure is dependent on low loan default figure.

No, JP Morgan is NOT a middleman. These were cut out in 2010, and JP Morgan is lending directly now. Their loans are not subsidized nor backed by taxpayer money, and they are free to decide to stop lending, which is what appears to be happening now.
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