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Peak Oil Perspective

physics.ucsd.edu

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Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#11

Post by rayiner »

jofer wrote: post #4

As a geologist in the oil industry, this is one of the few articles I've seen on peak oil that absolutely nails the salient points. (And even gets the geology correct.) To quote: "Most simply, peak oil is about rates, not amounts." Yes, there are a lot of unconventional resources. They're just a lot harder, more expensive, and most importantly in this context, slower to produce. On the upshot for me, and the downshot…

The concept "peak oil" to me seems to misdirect the debate right off the bat. Obviously the question isn't "when do we run out of oil" but "how does oil supply given continually increasing demand affect oil price" and "what does rising oil price do to the rest of the economy?

Inflation-adjusted, the price of a barrel of crude oil was $23 in 1960, and has been averaging almost $88 in 2013. What does that do to, e.g., suburbs designed around 1960's oil prices?

Most of the interesting questions when it comes to oil have nothing to do with "what happens when it runs out?" The fun stuff is before then.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#12

Post by arthurcolle »

fleitz wrote: post #7
devx wrote: post #3

The faster the oil/gas price increases, the more attractive electric cars become. Unfortunately, it could also mean US will never cut oil subsidies, unless they do it now, before the perceptible decline starts. Hopefully, governments will at least resist the urge to increase oil subsidies to keep the prices the same. Instead they should be looking at building electric car infrastructure in their countries, faster, so…

Most countries tax oil heavily. Europe and Canada come to mind.

The country of Europe

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#13

Post by thrownaway2424 »

fleitz wrote: post #7
devx wrote: post #3

The faster the oil/gas price increases, the more attractive electric cars become. Unfortunately, it could also mean US will never cut oil subsidies, unless they do it now, before the perceptible decline starts. Hopefully, governments will at least resist the urge to increase oil subsidies to keep the prices the same. Instead they should be looking at building electric car infrastructure in their countries, faster, so…

Most countries tax oil heavily. Europe and Canada come to mind.

Yeah. Last time I was in Europe the local gas tax was more than the entire price of gas in the USA. Our low gas tax is, in effect, a subsidy, because we (as a society) choose to ignore the externalized costs of burning gasoline.

Gas is currently 2CHF per liter (about $8 per gallon) in Zurich, in case you haven't been out of the USA lately.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#14

Post by thrownaway2424 »

rayiner wrote: post #11
jofer wrote: post #4

As a geologist in the oil industry, this is one of the few articles I've seen on peak oil that absolutely nails the salient points. (And even gets the geology correct.) To quote: "Most simply, peak oil is about rates, not amounts." Yes, there are a lot of unconventional resources. They're just a lot harder, more expensive, and most importantly in this context, slower to produce. On the upshot for me, and the downshot…

The concept "peak oil" to me seems to misdirect the debate right off the bat. Obviously the question isn't "when do we run out of oil" but "how does oil supply given continually increasing demand affect oil price" and "what does rising oil price do to the rest of the economy? Inflation-adjusted, the price of a barrel of crude oil was $23 in 1960, and has been averaging almost $88 in 2013. What does that do to, e.g.,…

Oil will never "run out" it just becomes more and more expensive.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#15

Post by liber8 »

jofer wrote: post #10
fleitz wrote: post #5

Peak oil depends on oil price, the world is awash in oil at $110. Even up to 2005 oil's peak price was $60. Peak oil also depends on consumption, with cars like Tesla coming out we'll see a sharp decline in consumption over the next 20 to 30 years, at $300/bl a Tesla starts to make a lot of sense. The world will never run out of oil, its price will simply continue to increase until other alternatives become economica…

The world is "awash" in oil at $110, but that oil simply can't be produced fast enough to meet demand. That's the fundamental problem.

This is provably false. If oil couldn't be produced fast enough to meet demand, the price of oil would not be $110 a barrel, it would be $110+x per barrel, where x is the maximum number of dollars people are willing to pay to use the available supply of oil.

This thinking generally leads people to miss OP's point, which is that the world will never run out of oil. Price will always fluctuate to meet demand (so long as we let the market set the price).

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#16

Post by thoughtsimple »

fleitz wrote: post #7
devx wrote: post #3

The faster the oil/gas price increases, the more attractive electric cars become. Unfortunately, it could also mean US will never cut oil subsidies, unless they do it now, before the perceptible decline starts. Hopefully, governments will at least resist the urge to increase oil subsidies to keep the prices the same. Instead they should be looking at building electric car infrastructure in their countries, faster, so…

Most countries tax oil heavily. Europe and Canada come to mind.

And in the US we are starting to tax cars that use less gasoline than average. Not exactly in sync with the problem.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#17

Post by UweSchmidt »

fleitz wrote: post #5

Peak oil depends on oil price, the world is awash in oil at $110. Even up to 2005 oil's peak price was $60. Peak oil also depends on consumption, with cars like Tesla coming out we'll see a sharp decline in consumption over the next 20 to 30 years, at $300/bl a Tesla starts to make a lot of sense. The world will never run out of oil, its price will simply continue to increase until other alternatives become economica…

There could however be a state where things just are not as convenient as they are now. There is no law of nature that says things have to stay as fun as they are now after we have depleted this unique resource that nature had to digest dinosaur bones for a few millions of years for.

Tesla's looking good though, so there's hope.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#18

Post by rybosome »

> The risk is asymmetric: starting a crash program toward replacement of finite fossil fuels too early has great up-sides and marginal downsides (opportunity cost); but failure to act has enormous downside for marginal upside. - See more at: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/peak-oil-perspec...

This is a more intelligent way of stating something I've been saying for years. I always explain my position on peak oil by offering an analogy of a fire escape. If the owner of a building chose not to install a fire escape (assuming they could dodge the law), then a fire in the building would be absolutely disastrous; the law would certainly come down on them for anyone who died, and there would major financial ramifications. On the other hand, if they installed a fire escape but it was never used, then the only downside would have been the initial installation cost. Between these two worst-case scenarios, one is so significantly worse than the other that taking steps to mitigate that risk is the logical thing to do, without regard to the likelihood of worst worst-case happening.

Doing nothing with respect to peak oil feels utterly insane.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#20

Post by astrodust »

fleitz wrote: post #7
devx wrote: post #3

The faster the oil/gas price increases, the more attractive electric cars become. Unfortunately, it could also mean US will never cut oil subsidies, unless they do it now, before the perceptible decline starts. Hopefully, governments will at least resist the urge to increase oil subsidies to keep the prices the same. Instead they should be looking at building electric car infrastructure in their countries, faster, so…

Most countries tax oil heavily. Europe and Canada come to mind.

Canada's petroleum taxes are only "heavy" compared to the US. They're actually really thin compared to other G8 countries.
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