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How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

technologyreview.com

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Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#51

Post by unono »

jiggy2011 wrote: post #48
unono wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're totally correct when it comes to skilled work, they get snatched up when they've proven their worth. However, this cloud labor is for unskilled work. So yes, they are commodities, but if they are a lot of them, and a lot of work to go around, wages rise. We saw this with the industrial revolution, especially assembly lines. Mid 20th century you could live pretty well as an unskilled assembly line worker, but t…

These platforms make it easier to find labour and thus drives more competition between labour providers but they don't necessarily increase the demand for it, at least at higher pay rates. It also makes the competition for knowledge work go international which might increase pay in developing countries but lower it in first world countries.

Oh sure, it will equalize wages across the world, with some rich worlders losing in the short term, but I think that's a good thing, why should poor worlder's suffer.

Higher pay rates exist for two reasons, unfair monopoly positions (e.g. bill gates and the OS monopoly of the 90s, actors/athletes), and because there is complex work that hasn't been deskilled yet. Not much can be done about the former except regulations, the latter is where programmers can change the situation. Demand is everywhere - whether it's fulfilled by cloud labor, or by specialized labor - is the question.

Either way, I think we can agree that immense opportunities exist for startups to profit from this space.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#52

Post by loup-vaillant »

hardwaresofton wrote: post #39

While I didn't quite read this article (I skimmed), I talk (read argue) about this subject very often with some friends. I think in the end, the inventor of a technology is somewhat responsible for figuring out what the people he/she will displace can do. For example, if I'm about to put a whole industry out of work ('disrupt'ing it), I think it would be reasonably responsible for me to offer training or some kind of…

You're assuming that displaced people should, or need to, work. Also, that they can work.

I'd say, not necessarily.

Think about the impending disappearance of professional driving. Automation may not be total, but it will probably reach a point where a single human for 50+ trucks is enough (just have the truck communicate with its command centre). So basically, the professional driving profession will likely shrink by a factor of 10 to 100.

Now, what's a ex-driver to do? I doubt Google could, nor should, have an answer.

Anyway, the reduction of necessary labour, which technology permits, should be good news. If it's not, that's probably because our societies are ill-equipped to deal with such progress.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#53

Post by jiggy2011 »

unono wrote: post #51
jiggy2011 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These platforms make it easier to find labour and thus drives more competition between labour providers but they don't necessarily increase the demand for it, at least at higher pay rates. It also makes the competition for knowledge work go international which might increase pay in developing countries but lower it in first world countries.

Oh sure, it will equalize wages across the world, with some rich worlders losing in the short term, but I think that's a good thing, why should poor worlder's suffer. Higher pay rates exist for two reasons, unfair monopoly positions (e.g. bill gates and the OS monopoly of the 90s, actors/athletes), and because there is complex work that hasn't been deskilled yet. Not much can be done about the former except regulatio…

There's certainly profit to be made in being a middle man in the labour market but that doesn't really solve the fundamental problem.

If you equalize wages you also need to equalize the cost of living which is something that doesn't seem to be happening because a lot of people have a lot of money locked up in land etc that they are not going to want to see devalued.

If deskilled work does not cover rent payments then it is not much good to anyone.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#54

Post by unono »

jiggy2011 wrote: post #53
unono wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh sure, it will equalize wages across the world, with some rich worlders losing in the short term, but I think that's a good thing, why should poor worlder's suffer. Higher pay rates exist for two reasons, unfair monopoly positions (e.g. bill gates and the OS monopoly of the 90s, actors/athletes), and because there is complex work that hasn't been deskilled yet. Not much can be done about the former except regulatio…

There's certainly profit to be made in being a middle man in the labour market but that doesn't really solve the fundamental problem. If you equalize wages you also need to equalize the cost of living which is something that doesn't seem to be happening because a lot of people have a lot of money locked up in land etc that they are not going to want to see devalued. If deskilled work does not cover rent payments then…

I have to disagree about being the middle man. Deskilling the workforce into an assembly line is a value creating activity, it's what engineers basically do. The typical middle man is simply there to skim some money because there are communication bottlenecks.

Yes, you're totally right - land will get devalued. The older generations in richer countries will lose the most relatively. This is not a bad thing fundamentally (it reverses the rich get richer trend), and is actually what's already happening, but people don't feel it. Every story that is heard about poverty reduction in China is also a story of westerners getting relatively poorer - though in absolute terms everyone is getting better quality of life.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#55

Post by vinceguidry »

loup-vaillant wrote: post #50
Zigurd wrote: post #30

While you cannot view technology as some kind of force of nature, immune to ethics, blaming the misery of joblessness on technology is beside the point. When is the last time the minimum wage was raised? The last time the work week shortened? Those laws are in place because of technology eliminating human labor. Those legal changes were the solution to a problem technology created. But they have not been updated whil…

There are other levers, such as Basic Income. A suggestion I heard would be to abolish minimum wage altogether, and introduce unconditional basic income. The hope is that basic income would make part time work sustainable, and give more leverage to workers. Possibly making minimum wage unnecessary.

Society simply isn't ready for such a solution. I floated the idea to my dad last week, and his reaction was instructive. There's just no convincing "Main Street" that paying people to sit around and do nothing could possibly benefit society. It's a political non-starter.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#56

Post by jiggy2011 »

unono wrote: post #54
jiggy2011 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's certainly profit to be made in being a middle man in the labour market but that doesn't really solve the fundamental problem. If you equalize wages you also need to equalize the cost of living which is something that doesn't seem to be happening because a lot of people have a lot of money locked up in land etc that they are not going to want to see devalued. If deskilled work does not cover rent payments then…

I have to disagree about being the middle man. Deskilling the workforce into an assembly line is a value creating activity, it's what engineers basically do. The typical middle man is simply there to skim some money because there are communication bottlenecks. Yes, you're totally right - land will get devalued. The older generations in richer countries will lose the most relatively. This is not a bad thing fundamenta…

Deskilling the workforce may be a valuable activity but those who make the best of it will be those doing the deskilling rather than those who are deskilled.

I'm not sure that the older/richer will lose out. They have a lot of political clout that they will bring to bear to keep value in their homes and retirement assets. A lot of this will be hoarded rather than redistributed so demand will continue to outstrip supply in many areas.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#57

Post by jiggy2011 »

vinceguidry wrote: post #55
loup-vaillant wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other levers, such as Basic Income. A suggestion I heard would be to abolish minimum wage altogether, and introduce unconditional basic income. The hope is that basic income would make part time work sustainable, and give more leverage to workers. Possibly making minimum wage unnecessary.

Society simply isn't ready for such a solution. I floated the idea to my dad last week, and his reaction was instructive. There's just no convincing "Main Street" that paying people to sit around and do nothing could possibly benefit society. It's a political non-starter.

Is that not what we already do through welfare/benefit payments? Plus the administration costs of such a system.

One solution would be a negative income tax, where you take some threshold X and basically cut low income people a cheque for (X - Income) / Y where Y is something like 2.

That way there is never a financial incentive not to work as every $ you earn will make you at least $0.50 better off than you were before (where Y = 2).

Under a complicated benefits system you often have incentives not to take low paying or casual work in case it disqualifies you for government benefit. In many cases the rules around this can be complicated, so even the effort required to figure this out can be a disincentive.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#58

Post by loup-vaillant »

jiggy2011 wrote: post #57
vinceguidry wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Society simply isn't ready for such a solution. I floated the idea to my dad last week, and his reaction was instructive. There's just no convincing "Main Street" that paying people to sit around and do nothing could possibly benefit society. It's a political non-starter.

Is that not what we already do through welfare/benefit payments? Plus the administration costs of such a system. One solution would be a negative income tax, where you take some threshold X and basically cut low income people a cheque for (X - Income) / Y where Y is something like 2. That way there is never a financial incentive not to work as every $ you earn will make you at least $0.50 better off than you were bef…

> Is that not what we already do through welfare/benefit payments?

Not in France. Here, you're supposed to look for a job (and prove it). If you don't, no welfare for you.

I believe few countries have a welfare system that is conditioned on nothing else than near-zero revenue.

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#59

Post by unono »

jiggy2011 wrote: post #56
unono wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree about being the middle man. Deskilling the workforce into an assembly line is a value creating activity, it's what engineers basically do. The typical middle man is simply there to skim some money because there are communication bottlenecks. Yes, you're totally right - land will get devalued. The older generations in richer countries will lose the most relatively. This is not a bad thing fundamenta…

Deskilling the workforce may be a valuable activity but those who make the best of it will be those doing the deskilling rather than those who are deskilled. I'm not sure that the older/richer will lose out. They have a lot of political clout that they will bring to bear to keep value in their homes and retirement assets. A lot of this will be hoarded rather than redistributed so demand will continue to outstrip supp…

The 'rich' in this case are middle and upper middle classes (wealth in homes), not the uber rich (wealth in stocks), so they don't actually have that much clout (doctors, teachers etc) on the international level, and they already are losing out. Doctors are relatively poorer than in the 60s/70s.

Deskilling benefits everyone, is leads to more equitable wealth distribution. The people inventing the assembly lines (hackers) will be paid more than the assembly line worker (cloud laborers), but that's a fair reward for the effort. They won't be much richer (just like mechanical engineers who invent factory equipment) because fierce competition will prevent it (there aren't network/platform effects that lead to gates/zuckerburg).

Re: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

#60

Post by jiggy2011 »

loup-vaillant wrote: post #58
jiggy2011 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that not what we already do through welfare/benefit payments? Plus the administration costs of such a system. One solution would be a negative income tax, where you take some threshold X and basically cut low income people a cheque for (X - Income) / Y where Y is something like 2. That way there is never a financial incentive not to work as every $ you earn will make you at least $0.50 better off than you were bef…

> Is that not what we already do through welfare/benefit payments? Not in France. Here, you're supposed to look for a job (and prove it). If you don't, no welfare for you. I believe few countries have a welfare system that is conditioned on nothing else than near-zero revenue.

We have a similar system in the UK, though it is fraught with bureaucracy. There is little (quality) help offered to people seeking jobs which leaves some people just going through the motions. From what I remember they want people to look for work within certain categories which can either be too broad or too narrow.
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