Earlier quoted context omitted.
> More recently, it had been in acquisition talks with Square, which also fell through, possibly because Braintree is asking for too high a valuation. > According to industry sources, Braintree has been asking for $1 billion, which seems unrealistic. It would seem that other suitors are trying to pressure Braintree to lower their target
Square processes $10b. BrainTree processes $10b. How is Square valued at $4b and BrainTree can't sell for $1b?
The value Square adds to that market is much more substantial: free POS system, mobile wallet app, promotion in their marketplace, Jack Dorsey's autographed photo, etc.
Braintree (and Stripe) target ecommerce startups. Their value-add is streamlined APIs and tailored customer service. That value-add is nice but relatively smaller and less scalable to boot. As soon as those sites get big they will negotiate for lower rates they can get from a commodity processor. No doubt the big customers in their portfolio already have and we just don't know it.
Square's got a whole world of small business to expand into, a much larger market than ecommerce startups. And their margins are more sustainable; it takes an awful lot of growth for a merchant to justify switching out all their POS systems and other Square lock-in, just to shave a few basis points off their processing rate.