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The Deal That Makes No Sense

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131–140 of 165 posts

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#131
> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won."

Wow, its times like this when its appropriate to trot out Michael Dell's famous apple quote.

> When asked what he'd do with Apple if he were in Jobs' shoes, Dell said:

>> What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#132

Nokia's most recent quarterly had them sitting on $4 billion EUR of cash ($5.2 billion), with barely any burn. I don't think the company was poised to go bankrupt anytime soon. Either Microsoft is completing a long planned purchase, or Nokia threatened to dabble in Android. Other than that the purchase is irrational.

That was at the end of June.

In August, they spent about €2.2 billion buying out Siemens' stake in Nokia Siemens Networks. This could very well have caused some short-term cash flow issues. Which also explains Microsoft's offer to finance Nokia at extremely low interest bonds.

Long-term, NSN is generating positive cash flow and ought to be able to pay for itself.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#133
post #34

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

> I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

Trouble is, the US is a large and profitable smartphone market. And it's locked up by the on-contract subsidy model.

There is a strong relationship between iPhone market share and subsidy amount. Countries with no subsidies have very few iPhones. Countries with some subsidies have some iPhones. The United States has high subsidies and thus a lot of iPhones.

http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-depend...

To some extent, Apple has a protected home market. Regardless of how its market share declines overseas, Apple will still rake in enormous profits through the cellphone subsidy in the US.

This is something that Nokia/Windows Phone doesn't have, with its puny 3.5% US market share. They're doing OK in the markets where people look at the price of the phone, and not doing well in the one market where people are happy to have their pockets picked.

That's not a recipe for making large profits in the phone business. And that's why the US market matters. Profits are disproportionately large compared to revenues.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#134
post #91

The Deal That Makes No Sense - Was Apple Forced Into Buying NeXT?

Thing is, Apple got a great OS and a great CEO. WTF did MS get that is at all comparable?

Apple happily shuttled out what they had perceived was a bad CEO, just as we all sit here in our armchairs preaching the same thing about MS.

MS gets a device manufacturer, which allows them to compete with Samsung and Apple.

Hindsight is 20/20.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Plus it's a prize Microsoft probably feels it can't afford to lose. If Android magically evaporated tomorrow Google would be just fine -- the core of their business (ad sales) doesn't fundamentally require that they control the mobile platform, although it certainly makes things easier. Microsoft, on the other hand, had for decades been the platform company. They've historically tried to grow by pushing out…

> If Android magically evaporated tomorrow Google would be just fine -- the core of their business (ad sales) doesn't fundamentally require that they control the mobile platform I do not agree. They don't necessarily need to control the mobile platform, but they do need access to the distribution channels. Witness how Apple replaced Google Maps with their own solution, even before their solution was good enough, as i…

But it is arguable if Apple would have done that if Google would not have been their competitor. Before Android they had a nice partnership (with Google CEO Schmidt on Apples board).

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#136
post #91

The Deal That Makes No Sense - Was Apple Forced Into Buying NeXT?

The NeXT deal made perfect sense. Copland, Apple's internal effort at making a next-generation OS, had failed, and they needed to acquire a pre-baked operating system. Speculation at the time had them acquiring BeOS, but they went with NeXT instead, and the rest is history.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#137
It isn't clear to me why the author is angry here but it comes across that way :-)

His thesis though, that something forced this move, is pretty credible. And the choices being (in order of likelyhood)

1) Nokia filing for bankruptcy - this one clocks up as being most likely for me

2) Someone else was going to buy them - I wondered about this with Apple's Maps fiasco, they had much better maps than Apple did, although I don't think Nokia would go for a breakup with partial acquisition.

3) Nokia switching to Android - this one I hear from people who wish it were true, but haven't seen much from Nokia on it.

Nokia has clearly been hurting for a while. Small flashes of excellence in an otherwise confused consumer experience. They also showed that you could build a competitive experience with Microsoft's phone product but it hasn't been helped by Microsoft's inability to get the developer traction it wanted.

Time will tell if it was able to change the path of Nokia and Microsoft for the better.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#138

It isn't clear to me why the author is angry here but it comes across that way :-) His thesis though, that something forced this move, is pretty credible. And the choices being (in order of likelyhood) 1) Nokia filing for bankruptcy - this one clocks up as being most likely for me 2) Someone else was going to buy them - I wondered about this with Apple's Maps fiasco, they had much better maps than Apple did, although…

> 2) Someone else was going to buy them - I wondered about this with Apple's Maps fiasco, they had much better maps than Apple did, although I don't think Nokia would go for a breakup with partial acquisition.

Am I reading the news wrong or is this a partial acquisition? It actually looks like Microsoft just made it easier for Apple to buy the part of Nokia it would want (maps).

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#139
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked around for a chart of the iPhone's market share by year, but couldn't find one. I remember the iPhone having trouble in its first year or two, and most of WP8's credibility comes from the ~2 year old Lumia line.

True. In 2010 the iPhone only had about 4% market share. My only point is that I'm talking about popularity of existing devices. It may well be that Microsoft will turn it around!

The other way to look at it is that iPhone had ~100% share of the "modern smartphone" market (choose your own name for it, but Blackberries and Symbian don't count).

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#140
post #34

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

> I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated. Trouble is, the US is a large and profitable smartphone market. And it's locked up by the on-contract subsidy model. There is a strong relationship between iPhone market share and subsidy amount. Countries with no subsidies have very few iPhon…

Yup it's totally possible that WP will never crack the US, but as the non-US smartphone market is growing rapidly, I don't think success in the US is the be all and end all.
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