Live data from Hacker News

The Deal That Makes No Sense

stratechery.com

41–50 of 165 posts

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#41
post #7

Elop must have the record in destroying a company. In 5 years a company went from being market leader with something like 90% of the smartphone market to almost bankrupt. I do not think something like this have ever happened this fast.

Yeah the completely market revolutionizing iPhone taking all of the high end market and Android taking all the low to high end market had nothing to do with Nokia's downfall.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#42
post #38
post #36

The tragedy in the deal, as I hinted at earlier, is that I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. According to the author, MS should abandon the fastest growing class of computing devices. What kind of a strategy is that?! Meanwhile, Windows Phone sales are up 77% YoY.

Growing without market-share tells us comparatively little. And to be the person for once that posts the obligatory xkcd comic: http://xkcd.com/1102/

On HN, you could give people the benefit of doubt and assume that market-share growth wouldn't be brought up unless the numbers were large enough. I would refrain from quoting that figure if it went from say 10,000 units to 20,000.

Last quarter, iPhone sales were 31 million devices and WP8 sales were 7.4 million devices. If WP8 is selling one device for every 4 iPhones, that is indeed a decent result relative to where they started off from.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#43
post #34

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

I've never seen one in SE or East Asia, not one, in Hong Kong, Singapore, KL, Bangkok or even little Phnom Penh, and you would think MS would see WP's best chance was to attract buyers who hadn't bought a smart phone before. What are they buying? Samsung mostly (and not just Galaxy, they make a lot of android phones at a cheap pricepoint), with 20-25% buying iPhones.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#44
The deal does makes sense - MS has oodles of cash and several cash cows but no stars for the future. Other two players, Apple and Google has already brought production in house - MS has a fighting chance with this acquisition - though the larger issue of MS bureaucracy can rock this boat as well

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#45
post #34

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

well that's because US has the market dimension of the full EU and more. This is why also if in EU wp is aroundd 10%, worlwide it is still on 3%. Us-Africa(that is still for more than 60% on dumbphones)-Cina-Japan do not like it for various reasons

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#46
post #31

I don't agree with all the things in this article, but there certainly rings a bell of truth in there somewhere. A 5.44 billion EURO transaction to acquire a company that is already in a strategic partnership with you and working exclusively with your platform doesn't make sense. My vote also goes for Nokia being financially in trouble, and M$ have their hand forced by the fear of a collapse in Nokia would gut the di…

The article is full of errors and unbacked claims. > ... adding on a mobile phone business that Microsoft probably should abandon ... Why should it be abandoned? Just because the author isn't a fan of WP8? > have argued that Stephen Elop made a massive strategic error by choosing Windows Phone over Android; ... It would have been to Nokia’s benefit to have everyone running Android, including themselves. Not necessari…

Why should it be abandoned? Just because the author isn't a fan of WP8?

The general public aren't a fan of WP8 either.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#47
People are giving advises all over the web, as if, getting to a point where you have $7B to spend is not a result of a series of wise decisions and solid strategy.

I am not a Microsoft fan to say the least, but boy, we understand that this is all your personal opinion, etc.

However, have you ever touched or got near by a pile of a billion dollars, that you allow yourself to make such strong opinion about? Did you ever have 1% of that money, or .1% of that money?

Everyone has the right to have an opinion, but please, assume "they" know facts and figures you don't.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#48
post #10
post #7

Elop must have the record in destroying a company. In 5 years a company went from being market leader with something like 90% of the smartphone market to almost bankrupt. I do not think something like this have ever happened this fast.

(1) 50% five years ago and already dropping. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/World-Wid... (2) Elop arrived in 2010 and Nokia was basically already done for.

I must disagree. In 2010 Nokia was 70% of Brazil smartphone market and their share was still rising, very fast. Symbian phones were known to.be solid, fast, and had apps and games ( even a port of counter strike! )

As soon Elop announced Symbian death, the whole thing tanked, and I cannot help but feel that Elop is stupid.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#49
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are getting to a point where the power of the device is less of a distinguishing factor. Lots of people are satisfied with the hardware of the previous generation Iphone or lower spec'd Android Phones. If hardware prices continue to drop the feature phone market (which Nokia dominates) could easily turn into a low end smart phone market. The Windows Phone OS could actually be a good choice for this. This is also u…

I don’t understand that reasoning. Why would a phone maker choose Windows Phone over Android? – Android is cheaper than Windows Phone (many phone makers pay Microsoft to be able to use patents used in Android, but even then, Android is cheaper than Windows Phone) – Android has lower system requirements than Windows Phone – Android has a thriving app market, Windows Phone doesn’t Windows Phone low-end phones will only…

Android certainly does not have lower system requirements than Windows Phone. I mean, it could run on lower spec hardware... for some definition of "run". Mine are both last-gen devices, but my Lumia has half the cores and RAM as my Galaxy and runs twice as smoothly.

I hear later versions of Android did get smoother on flagship phones, but I don't know how or if that translates to lower-end devices.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the effect of ecosystem lock-down is huge compared to 5-6 years ago. It's not about who makes the best phones or phone-OS anymore. People are invested in their respective app ecosystems and all their photos, contacts, documents etc. are in Apple's or Google's cloud. I'm not saying that Microsoft doesn't have a chance at all but I think the odds are against Windows phones ever reaching a significant market sh…

I don't agree. Most of the general users I know forget their email password every time they fuck up their phone and just buy all the apps again. This is the norm. The only thing people give a shit about is their data (and that is usually when it's way to late and they're about to lose it), not the apps.

No it's not. People may forget, but they don't rebuy things repeatadly.
Post reply on HN