The Future of Web Startups • Hacker News Board

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#61

Post by fallintothis » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:09 PM UTC

Forgiving the possibility of alternate spellings I'm unaware of (e.g., "color" vs. "colour"), and despite the fact that I wish I had more to contribute, I would like to file a:

Pedantic Typo Report

The Future of Web Startups, Section 2. Standardization.

"In essense, let the market design the product."

"essense" vs. "essence"

That is all.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#62

Post by imsteve » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:12 PM UTC

This was unexpectedly quite good. It hit some points that I've been feeling strongly about for a while.

I found the warning that it's getting more risky to just sit on ideas and not act inspiring. Will be doing extra coding tonight!

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#63

Post by gcheong » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:25 PM UTC

Does anyone believe that the future viability of web application innovation depends on the availability of consumer access to higher and higher bandwidth connections (at a cheaper and cheaper cost - to the point of commoditization), and if so, as the US falls further behind other countries in this respect,will that reduce the relevance of Silicon Valley as a startup hub for web application companies? Which country (city) do you think will emerge as the web app innovation leader?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#64

Post by byrneseyeview » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:35 PM UTC

run4yourlives wrote: post #54

byrneseyeview wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he's suggesting that they could be accused of it. Startups are disproportionately started by men, most of whom are white or Asian. Paul Graham says not to blame on malice what you can attribute to math, but other people might not see it that way. "I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons." What is…

Human Rights trump Economics. That's what our society has decided, therefore employment laws, while imperfect, have good reason. For reference, see 19th century factory conditions.

Economics drives human rights. For reference, see the conditions of the 19th century farms people fled to go work in those factories.

And I don't understand what you mean about laws being proof that people feel this way. I assume that the proof that people feel a certain way is that they act that way. For example, if I think being a coal miner is too risky, I won't be a coal miner; if I think the rewards are fair compensation, I will be one. Why do you need a law to deprive me of my freedom to make those decisions?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#65

Post by herdrick » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:35 PM UTC

The funny thing about a great metaphor is that it somehow makes it easier to draw conclusions. If Paul had only said, "A startup now can be just a pair of 22 year old guys, so they can move to a new town pretty easily, so we'll probably see more clustering of startups, not less" then you'd nod and continue on. But instead he said this about startup hubs: "the particles they're attracting are getting lighter." Suddenly you can see it and feel it: move your startup to Palo Alto! Buy real estate in Mountain View! It's so obvious!

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#66

Post by herdrick » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:37 PM UTC

distrsearch wrote: post #42

Great post, as usual, there is one point though - assuming that all the best will move to the startup hubs is like efficient markets hypothesis i.e. not really. They would move in a rational world but there are many seemingly irrational reasons that you can find world class people in obscure places anywhere in the world and, moreover, they are content to stay there. I am talking from personal experience, in my previo…

He didn't say all the best founders will move to Silicon Valley, just that more will than previously.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#67

Post by ceesai » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:48 PM UTC

The title of the talk (or article) is "future of web startups" and most of what is in it is satisfyingly accurate and perhaps marginally prescient. Except for the jump to the gushing, meritocratic tubes of the future. This much is true about startups; they are high-risk high-reward options, with the risk basically come down to around monetary opportunity cost now. Smart people definitely have a better chance at succeeding at these and college is not necessary for success at startups. Read that again. Success at startups. What most young people (I am in my mid-twenties and almost definitely going down the start-up trail so I do not speak from any graying high horse) do not understand is that priorities change as you age. And not just fuzzy notions of priority engendered by cultural forces, but those fostered by your own biology. There is literature, and longitudinally applied common sense, suggesting so. The opportunity cost of foregoing college is changing, not evaporating. Yes you can pick most of those lessons on the web, and the elitist cachet of iv(or)y league schools is losing its allure. In fact, you don't need to live in a dorm to have an immersive social experience, not that many here do anyways. The oppurtunity cost is that of being thrust into social situations with people whose interests and desires don't align with yours. It is about being part of a tribe for four or more years and finding a niche to flourish within that tribe. Most geeks don't get this anyways, and the evolutionarily obtained multiple equilibria of personalities are partitioned into the black and white of nerds and jocks. OK, not all are that extreme,but branding the gentle friction of shallow social interactions as 'fake' is rather blinkered. That is an opinion, or even a delusion, and may suit some well, but do understand that what works for some does not work for all. We can all of course go on with our sheltered lives deciding not understanding why some cultural institutions have evolved (and why their need may eventually be obviated) and it cannot be a bad life. An ignorant life is in fact a blissful one isn't it? But to distort and distill the argument into catchy trade-off: "startups leads to success; college leads to catalepsy" is not even apples and oranges. ..

One last thing: Recognize that success is a shape-shifting beast.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#68

Post by anamax » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 8:49 PM UTC

mcaction wrote: post #58

In point 1 where Paul states there will be a lot of startups because it's cheap to startup, I have to wonder where is the demand side of the equation. Is there enough demand for whatever it is these startups are/will be doing? Hearing more about that would be very interesting; I'd love to see a world with many many more startups. ak

The different thing about the web is that a biz doesn't need to be physically close to its customers. In fact, there frequently aren't any advantages to being close to said customers (or it's impossible to be close to all of them because they're spread out).

However, there are still advantages to a biz being close to itself and its resources.

The combination of those to things means that startup hubs will become stronger.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#69

Post by bluishgreen » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 9:05 PM UTC

emmanuel81 wrote: post #43

Yet another essay on startups, by PG... It appears that essays tend to be cheaper to make, as time goes on, too (thanks to, you know, copy/paste). I couldn't find any ideas here that hadn't been expressed elsewhere in your writings or wasn't self-evident. We want more crazy controversial stuff, like the last (brilliant) one on philosophy! Ideas for new subjects: - "google is dead"; - "how to fund painters"; - "all th…

I didn't downmod you. But I guess the reason people are downmodding you might be for the way you said things rather than what you are trying to say.

And oh, the part about ideas for new subjects... ok. I am wondering why I didn't downmod you now.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#70

Post by rms » Thu, Oct 04, 2007, 9:06 PM UTC

paul wrote: post #41

electric wrote: post #6

What Paul ignores is the fact that most people out of college are faced with seemingly insurmountable debt as a result of having to pay for an education - esp. in America (and to a lesser extent in Canada). This is one problem that will prevent startups from happening at such a rapid pace as he anticipates. In fact, most graduates want to find stable jobs to pay off their debt -- startups are not really on most gradu…

One solution is to avoid accumulating a huge debt. I went to a school that gives out scholarships based on SAT scores (CWRU).

This might be a recent policy change, but now at CWRU you need to be in the top 10% of your high school class to get the SAT scholarship. I had a high enough SAT score to qualify for one of CWRU's standard scholarships but didn't get it because I was in the top 12% of my high school class.