One of the "nice" things about the NSA: they rely on pretty standard crypto--the same kind the rest of us do!--for their less sensitive, but still classified, secrets. NSA Ciphersuite B ( http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSA_Suite_B_Cryptography ) is built into a lot of gov/mil communications technology. And it's just RSA, ECDHE, and so on--all that same stuff available in TLS. In other words: if the NSA break one of t…
So it basically comes down to whether or not we 'assume our enemies are advancing their own tech at roughly the same rate.' The NSA probably has an okay idea of what 'roughly' is, and if you had this ability you wouldn't be showing your hand lightly.
Way more speculatively, I'd be curious to know whether or not it would be possible to add 'next-gen' crypto to existing practices in such a way that it might be transparent?