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Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

blog.baugues.com

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Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#42
post #18

Programming is fundamentally different from most other occupations. We are actually building factories - automating manual tasks. If developer jobs start to become scarce, we'll be nearing a situation where there are no jobs at all for anyone. So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty.

So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty.

I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember the dot com bust then...

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#43

I have a few problems with this article. 1. The author points out all of the services which now exist, but says nothing of people and talent it takes to create and support such services. I think the tail for 'software enabled services' is rather longer than factory automation robots. 2. The author seems to have a somewhat narrow view of what developers actually do these days. Yes, it is true that people are not typic…

>Most of the software getting written for business today is highly specialized. Highly specialized software = no out of the box solution

This is one part of the developer community that doesn't get publicized as much. The Startup web companies are not the only place where developers work, but they are the most competitive. I work for an Assessor's office as a developer, and we develop our management information system in house. There are only about 7 developers that know how it works, and each one is specialized in certain areas of it. There is no way that someone could come in and replace us without spending years working with the software first. There is no out of box program that could take the place of this specialized and customized software. And even if there was a company this department could out source too, they would not get bug fixes and new builds as fast as they do now.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#44
post #6

It's already happening. As a freelancer, I often find people who want their "corporate" site built in WordPress for less money than what they would pay to a car mechanic for a similar amount of time worked. Sames goes for Magento and similar platforms.

That's been the case since I entered the development field in the early 00's. I wouldn't say it's anything new. The polite thing to do is to explain to them your hourly rates and then allow them to make a decision. The impolite, but safer for you, thing to do is to run without looking back.

It's not a case of developers being automated, it's a case of the customer not understanding that they get what they pay for.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While that's true for the autoworker example, it's not true for the lawyer example: The best lawyers produced much more than the normal lawyers. I would put programmers roughly on par with the law industry, not with the auto industry.

Please elaborate. Define "best" in the context of lawyers. Is it a graduate of Harvard Law? Or someone who managed to make partner at a major firm? How do you define output for a lawyer? Billable hours? Cases won? Contracts written?

The nice thing about measuring output for lawyers, is that a fair share of them work as either independent contractors, or partners. In both cases, you've got the best proxy for productivity we have: profit.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#46
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

How does personal sacrifice correlate with market price for your skills? Maybe it's progress when someone with a liberal arts degree (and presumably some programming experience) can get competing developer job offers based on his skills. I agree with your sentiment about the most-upvoted posts but I don't see this as a counterargument.

I think you would be surprised which developers have a liberal arts degree and which don't.

I know of at least five or six developers who currently have or in the past have held very lofty roles within international open-source projects who have liberal arts degrees.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While that's true for the autoworker example, it's not true for the lawyer example: The best lawyers produced much more than the normal lawyers. I would put programmers roughly on par with the law industry, not with the auto industry.

Please elaborate. Define "best" in the context of lawyers. Is it a graduate of Harvard Law? Or someone who managed to make partner at a major firm? How do you define output for a lawyer? Billable hours? Cases won? Contracts written?

defining "best" for a lawyer is similar to defining "best" for a software developer. It is production of quality at a rapid rate, choosing the right tools for a job, etc.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#48

I don't always seize my means of production. But when I do, I close it, stick it in a case, and put it in my backpack.

To follow up with something less pithy and more thoughtful:

I'm from near Detroit. Auto work is a bad comparison, because auto workers need millions of dollars worth of equipment to do their job.

Software developers are more like the film industry. Big operations need millions in equipment etc, but the individual actors, well, they just have to know how to act.

Given that software as a service solves a problem the film industry is still wrestling with, and given that the film industry is still very much solvent at present, I think we're going to be okay.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#49
post #29

Yes, programmers keep automating their own work. And we keep trying to find ways to bring in new programmers. But software keeps eating the world. I don't see an end to this. The auto-industry was largely reliant on a very specific vertical. Also, programmers (unlike auto workers) have not locked in long term benefits that hamstring a company. In fact, we've embraced taking on the risks of the company and staying nim…

programmers (unlike auto workers) have not locked in long term benefits

This is true in many of the developer communities. But I work for a local government agency as a programmer. So, I have long term benefits and a retirement plan, and I assume there are lots of programmers in this category, they just aren't publicized like the start-up and web community.

I am thankful for the influential programmers that live more risky and work at start ups, but there is also a place for programmers that have a secure job, working at companies/organizations with specialized software. However, I know that many bad workers have been created from these environments...there is always a group that will ruin it for everyone.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#50
post #42
post #18

Programming is fundamentally different from most other occupations. We are actually building factories - automating manual tasks. If developer jobs start to become scarce, we'll be nearing a situation where there are no jobs at all for anyone. So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty.

So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty. I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember the dot com bust then...

Programmers fell into poverty after the dot com burst? That seems a bit extreme. Lost very high paying jobs, maybe.
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