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Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

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Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#11

Post by kellros »

I agree with you that this is the direction in which we are heading, but not that professional developers will become obsolete.

I believe if we ever reach that point where programming is common-skill; the real developers will stay ahead due to demand. I honestly don't see corporates with millions/billions of revenue trusting newcomers with a few weeks of experience to handle core business automation; in the same way as you don't trust a clerk to sort out your legal issues.

Perhaps when the time comes; professional developers will become like the attorneys in the law system; where specialist skills demand even a higher rate and requires less time invested (which might mean the same salary as now but only working 'part time').

I don't have any issues with people wanting to learn to code; I even mentor some myself. It really comes down to hours (or rather years) invested in learning and fine-tuning your skills; which I see the majority of new developers not willing to invest in.

As such, I believe the demand for better developers will increase. Look to the tech companies with open positions looking for 10x/star developers - even though there are developers available, they just don't make the cut.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#12

Post by skyebook »

One comment on the post goes after the analogy not being fully sound because unions helped to prop up wages.

Whatever you think about unions, I'll be sort of curious to see if some segment of developer jobs do unionize ever. I get the sense that the rugged individualism that seems to be far more prevalent in developer/engineer/hacker sort of circles would be less for it; what about h1b workers who seem to feature quote often in stories about not great companies overworking employees and threatening their jobs (and with that, their legal status in the States)

Yes, a tangential thought to the article but an important part as people continue to evangelize the great opportunities in the tech industry and Hacker School, Code Academy, WikiBooks help them to get up to speed

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#14

Post by mberning »

I have a few problems with this article.

1. The author points out all of the services which now exist, but says nothing of people and talent it takes to create and support such services. I think the tail for 'software enabled services' is rather longer than factory automation robots.

2. The author seems to have a somewhat narrow view of what developers actually do these days. Yes, it is true that people are not typically employed to roll their own e-commerce or blog sites. Very few people are doing this nowadays. Most of the software getting written for business today is highly specialized. Highly specialized software = no out of the box solution.

3. The author ignores the fact that a major drop in demand for software talent would probably coincide with some revolutionary change in technology. I'm talking about ubiquitous self driving cars and planes, robots that teach themselves, ad-hoc on site manufacturing via 3d printing, software that writes itself, etc. Should any of those things come to pass, having a nice job as a developer will be the least of anybody's worries.

While I do agree that the industry is changing, I really don't see it as being that similar to the auto industry melt down. The differences and flaws in such an analogy are easily spotted.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#15

Post by greenyoda »

kellros wrote: post #11

I agree with you that this is the direction in which we are heading, but not that professional developers will become obsolete. I believe if we ever reach that point where programming is common-skill; the real developers will stay ahead due to demand. I honestly don't see corporates with millions/billions of revenue trusting newcomers with a few weeks of experience to handle core business automation; in the same way…

"Perhaps when the time comes; professional developers will become like the attorneys in the law system; where specialist skills demand even a higher rate and requires less time invested"

Isn't that happening today with the substantial number of developers who do freelance contracting/consulting?

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#16

Post by shuaib »

> At this particular moment in history, demand for developers outpaces supply.

I thought it was demand for "good" developers that was outpacing supply. Otherwise there are many developers (even with the professional degrees) that can't pass the Fizz Buzz test (http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?FizzBuzzTest).

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#17

Post by grumblefoo »

I've been using this metaphor for a couple years now, and I think that it can be taken further. Developers are like the car mechanics because they build the thing. There are an increasing number of tools being created to make developers lives easier, and as such, the bar to entry lowers. This is not the only career in computer science, though. Just like the auto industry, we need research to push the whole field forward (developing a new, more efficient programming language; or a better fuel injection system). We also have mechanics called IT people that help people with day to day problems that they encounter with their computers.

Moral, if you want to stay relevant, make sure you know the things that push research. Learn the lambda and pi calculi. Learn category theory. Web development is an overpaid field, software engineering is not. Enjoy the easy money while it lasts, but know that its days are numbered

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#18

Post by unono »

Programming is fundamentally different from most other occupations. We are actually building factories - automating manual tasks. If developer jobs start to become scarce, we'll be nearing a situation where there are no jobs at all for anyone. So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#19

Post by nohuck13 »

mkr-hn wrote: post #10
nohuck13 wrote: post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

I think the argument is that the skill level and number of people needed for most development jobs will be lowered with platforms and tools that make it easy for a minimally trained user to do it. Someone still has to make the tools and platforms, but implementing them won't take as many people. Think about how many wildly popular websites run with a handful of people. How long will it be before you don't even need m…

I think that's a key question, but I've never been a fan of the notion that robots (or efficient frameworks) are going to put us all out of jobs. If you look at what we've actually seen in the last 20 years, efficient frameworks enable entrepreneurship and wealth creation on a scale that wasn't possible in the past. Sure, there are fewer people employed doing nitty gritty stuff, but the size of the economic pie is far bigger than it once was, largely because of labor-saving technology and frameworks. If you want to argue that better frameworks will drive down wages, the argument to make is that better frameworks will reduce development time without facilitating wealth-creation.

EDIT: maybe this will happen, I can't predict the future. Rereading your post, I guess this is more or less what you were saying. But then the question is, what's going to change to reduce growth?

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#20

Post by rjsw »

mkr-hn wrote: post #10
nohuck13 wrote: post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

I think the argument is that the skill level and number of people needed for most development jobs will be lowered with platforms and tools that make it easy for a minimally trained user to do it. Someone still has to make the tools and platforms, but implementing them won't take as many people. Think about how many wildly popular websites run with a handful of people. How long will it be before you don't even need m…

You had toolmakers in the auto industry too.
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