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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

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111–120 of 175 posts

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#111

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

There are arguably a fair number of moving sidewalks in Hong Kong: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central%E2%80%93Mid-Levels_esca...

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#112

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

It looks like we are ~20 years from an actual experimental fusion power plant (DEMO) although the ITER reactor currently being built in France (with the EU being the largest funder) should produce 500MW of thermal energy for nearly 500 seconds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEMO

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#113
post #107

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

> And experimental fusion-power plant or two will already > exist in 2014 They do.

Not exactly power plants if they only exist to test certain approaches instead of actually generating power.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#114

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

> ✗ Fusion power plants

I disagree! Azimov didn't say that we will be using fusion power, he said that an "experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist".

Which is pretty much what ITER[1] is.

So to me, this is one of the most accurate predictions.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#115

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

> ✗ Fusion power plants I disagree! Azimov didn't say that we will be using fusion power, he said that an " experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist ". Which is pretty much what ITER[1] is. So to me, this is one of the most accurate predictions. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

It isn't really a power plant until they turn it on. And so far, the difference between a fusion reactor and a fusion power plant has been a significant one.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ✗ Fusion power plants I disagree! Azimov didn't say that we will be using fusion power, he said that an " experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist ". Which is pretty much what ITER[1] is. So to me, this is one of the most accurate predictions. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

It isn't really a power plant until they turn it on. And so far, the difference between a fusion reactor and a fusion power plant has been a significant one.

To put it simply, he predicted that fusion energy will be at the experimental level.

For a 50 year prediction this is very accurate. (As apposed to the glowing walls.)

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#117
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference between saying something is possible and saying something is easy. I don't think it is easy to build a moon colony. On the other hand, I do not see any scientific or engineering reason why it is not possible. We have already proven we can land on the moon and that we can build space colonies (i.e. ISS). Sure there are hurdles I have not considered, but that just makes it hard not impossible.

Given that we've not been able to create a self-contained biosphere on Earth, the prospect for long-term environmental support on the Moon seems low. The IIS gets regular resupplies to keep its environmental support systems operational and habitable.

There's no requirement that a lunar colony be self-sustaining in order to qualify as a lunar colony.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#118

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

x EL panels No, but they're to expensive for usage on every wall. Personally, I think they'll be pushed towards fringe applications by a technology Asmimov didn't predict. High efficiency LEDs.

x Smart glass Yes, but again a cost question. There's this [http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/01/10/t-ts-samsun...], by Samsung. I don't see why you couldn't replace your windows with such screens if you had the spare dough. Also, there's privacy glass, which is cheaper, but still sets you back 500USD/m².

x Fusion power plants. Those might be a couple of years off.

x Radioactive batteries. Exist, but not in the scale and power density Asimov predicts. There are nuclear batteries for pacemakers [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacel].

x Moving sidewalks Yep, only at chokepoints and long stretches of unidirectional people movement indoors.

x Moon colonies. They're on the other side, hiding. Trust me on this one.

A lot of these points are arguable. I'm easily excitable, so I consider technological feasibility/existence as a check, but your view on it may be more somber (It has to be exactly as he predicted). I'm just amazed he got that much of it right.

On a side note, why couldn't the non-asimov prediction with blimp filled skies come true? They're like sky whales...and I really should get some sleep.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ✗ Fusion power plants I disagree! Azimov didn't say that we will be using fusion power, he said that an " experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist ". Which is pretty much what ITER[1] is. So to me, this is one of the most accurate predictions. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

It isn't really a power plant until they turn it on. And so far, the difference between a fusion reactor and a fusion power plant has been a significant one.

ITER won't have any power generation capability - you have to wait for DEMO for that.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't work because they want to support someone else, they work because they want to support themselves.

He's trying to make the case that there's some great conspiracy to keep people employed in jobs that shouldn't exist. I suppose he'll next tell us that the rich are "job creators."

I'm not sure what you think job creators are. Is it some kind of medal you get when you employ someone? Do you loose it if you fire them? What kind of conditions constitutes employing? Do I get to be a job creator if I give you a dollar for explaining your point?

Job providers, I get why those are important. Not everyone wants to be bothered with the business side of living, along with its risks. I can actually see how that division of labour and responsibilities aids both sides of the equation.

But if you count self-employment, there's job providers on every rung of the social ladder. The chinese guy selling chua'r on the street is a job provider, just as much as the multimillion entrepreneur employing thousands of people. So it becomes senseless to say that one wealth bracket supplies jobs, and another one doesn't.

And then there's "job creation", which seems like a meaningless metric if you don't factor in loss of jobs, current amount of jobs, unemployment, etc. And you seriously want to pin that metric down on a single group?

By the way, if the take the logic further, and look at who's implicated in major job destruction (layoffs), it's us. Hackers. I'm going from the Systems optimization definition here, and when you optimize away a part of a system, someone's bound to get fired. Your packaging machine eliminated 5 packaging workers. Your fiber optic cable eliminated 50 post office workers.

They're being added, somewhere.

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