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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

nytimes.com

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Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#71

Post by xixixao »

jpatokal wrote: post #54

Asimov's own biases shine through pretty clearly in the initial bit: One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button. Windows need be no more than an archaic…

This is true, but SPOILER: // // // // In Asimov's universe, humans do end up leaving their caves. So in the end, Asimov turns to the stars. // // //

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#72

Post by throwaway_yy2Di »

zanny wrote: post #31
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…

We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades.

It operated ("actually sustained fusion") for a total of four seconds, in 1997. Most of the work involves non-fusion plasmas.

http://www.jet.efda.org/wp-content/uploads/jeteuropeansucess...

That was a costly experiment: the resulting radiation -- neutron activation of the structure -- made the reactor inaccessible for 18 months.

http://www.iop.org/Jet/fulltext/JETP98037.pdf

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#73

Post by yk »

dobbsbob wrote: post #47
jonahx wrote: post #5

I'd be curious to know if anyone has ever written one of these types of predictions, at any period in history predicting another period 50+ years out, and not had a large percentage of big misses.

George Orwell, William Gibson, Star Trek writers.

Gibson, like everybody else, had completely missed cell phones.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#74

Post by morpher »

dllu wrote: post #34
zanny wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…

1. The National Ignition Facility [1] recently reported record amounts of energy produced by laser-based fusion, but it is more of a research facility than a power plant. 2. Do the betavoltaics [2] in some early pacemakers and the small reactor on spacecraft and the Mars Science Laboratory count as radioactive batteries? But I am assuming that, since betavoltaic pacemakers and nuclear spacecraft have been around sinc…

The wikipedia page doesn't seem to have any information about "record amounts of energy produced" at NIF. The closest thing I've found is a press release[1] that mentions "highest [neutron] yield achieved so far from a layered DT implosion". Neutron production should be proportional to the number of fusion events (and thus also the energy released). But, its odd that they don't claim this specifically.

[1] https://lasers.llnl.gov/newsroom/project_status/index.php

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#75

Post by caublestone »

coldtea wrote: post #27

> At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. Amazing prediction! Well, he got the GM part wrong, but indeed, there was a series called "Futurama" and it DID display "vistas of underground cities" (New New York)!

At the time of this writing, GM was the largest corporation in America. Think about the largest corporations today and then replace those names where GM is.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#77

Post by hdivider »

ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

Digital teaching aids: yes, definitely. I'd say we're doing pretty well on that front.

There's DragonBox, which teaches basic algebra [0]. There's 3D software (Blender etc. or just 3D stuff in a web browser), which, because of its interactivity, makes it much easier to understand complicated 3D shapes (and can help with visualisation when doing group-theoretic calculations).

And then there's all the stuff that we take for granted, e.g. highly optimised search algorithms for teaching material and papers, instant unit conversions and even fairly complicated calculations using Google and Wolfram Alpha, and so on.

Also, Wikipedia.

"Part of the General Electric exhibit today consists of a school of the future in which such present realities as closed-circuit TV and programmed tapes aid the teaching process.."

Compared to some of the items above, it looks like technology has gone well into and even a little beyond merely 'aiding' the teaching process.

[0]: http://www.dragonboxapp.com

(Very good summary BTW - thanks.) =]

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#78

Post by rpedela »

zanny wrote: post #31
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…

There are several teams working on a dense plasma focus design for fusion rather than the large and expensive tokamak or laser designs. What I like about dense plasma focus is if it works, little or no neutrons (bad radiation), the apparatus is the size of a garage, extremely cheap for a power plant. As far as I am aware, these guys are the closest to achieving a fusion power plant with dense plasma focus: http://lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#79

Post by rpedela »

williadc wrote: post #62
ctdonath wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like with the prescient Ladies' Home Journal predictions, much of what hasn't happened isn't so much that we couldn't do it, but that we can do it and find it uninteresting or inconvenient after all (like moon colonies: doable, just not much point given the cost involved vs benefits).

It is irritating to hear claims that something can be done which has never been done. As evidenced by every project I've ever worked on, people have a very poor idea of how much work it takes to accomplish a task. There are very likely hurdles to building moon colonies that you have not considered.

There is a big difference between saying something is possible and saying something is easy. I don't think it is easy to build a moon colony. On the other hand, I do not see any scientific or engineering reason why it is not possible. We have already proven we can land on the moon and that we can build space colonies (i.e. ISS). Sure there are hurdles I have not considered, but that just makes it hard not impossible.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#80

Post by wildgift »

saraid216 wrote: post #51
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

> ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) I used to have corrective glasses that did what he described. I can't remember what the type of lens was called, and Google is being unhelpful. But walking in and out of shade was definitely a bit annoying because it kept repolarizing. > ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) I'd say so. Open question: how would we put benches on moving sidewalks? P.S. I am amused…

They were or are called "Chameleon" lenses.
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