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Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

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Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#101

Post by twoodfin »

rom16384 wrote: post #50
c2prods wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical about Microsoft recovering. They clearly missed the mobile revolution. But let's hope they'll be able to tackle directly the next challenges (wearable computing, etc.)

They also clearly missed the internet revolution, but managed to recover. Big companies have trouble adapting to new paradigms, but it's not impossible for them to do it, especially when they have so many resources at their disposal.

I don't think Microsoft's response to the web is comparable to their failures in mobile. billg's "Internet Tidal Wave" memo went out in 1995, long before the web had become ubiquitous. They still had plenty of time to (legally or otherwise!) ride the .com tidal wave to dominant marketshare and huge profitability.

A similar memo would have done the most good in 2005, when it was becoming clear that we'd soon all have access to pretty decent wireless networks and high performance pocket computers, but also clear that WinCE and the PocketPC were lousy ways to take advantage of those facts.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#102

Post by wallygold »

lbarrow wrote: post #23

He'll be remembered as a terrible CEO. Ballmer took over as CEO in 2000. In the 13 years since then, Apple has experienced an unprecedented resurgence. Google and Facebook have gone from being obscure startups to giants. The tech industry went through the bubble, recovered, and today is stronger than ever. What happened to Microsoft? While the rest of the tech sector exploded and prospered, it stayed still. A MSFT sh…

They've paid dividends pretty consistently over that time so if the price is the same (or close) hasn't it effectively appreciated?

This article puts the cash value of the 2004 special dividend at 32 billion. (And that's not to include the quarterly dividends that they haven't missed a beat on.) http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/21/business/technology-micros...

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#103

Post by JaakkoP »

rdl wrote: post #33

Since the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has a huge percentage of its wealth still in MSFT stock, I think Bill Gates can make a case to himself that picking the best possible leader for MSFT will save hundreds of thousands of marginal children. If I were him, there would be two candidates: Qi Lu (insider, obvious choice), or, for the ultimate in turnaround ballerdom: Ben Horowitz (from a16z). Either would be a vas…

Never thought of Ben Horowitz until now, but since you mentioned it, I'd really like to see that happen!

Chances are that Bill Gates becomes interim CEO and personally recruits the more permanent leader from the outside.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#104

Post by mathattack »

chollida1 wrote: post #77
mathattack wrote: post #7

Huge news! Let's see what happens to the stock today. It edged up a little at the end of the day, suggesting that perhaps news was getting out. It's up 8% in premarket trading. [1] One interesting thing to note from that chart is their Beta (a measure of link to market volatility) is less than 1, which is very low for a high tech stock. It basically means that the market views them as less volatile to market conditio…

> One interesting thing to note from that chart is their Beta (a measure of link to market volatility) is less than 1, which is very low for a high tech stock. Not really, Looking at my Bloomberg terminal shows that AAPL US Equity has a beta of .944, YHOO US Equity has a beta of .748 and GOGO US Equity has a beta of .894.

Interesting. I see IBM is less than 1 too.

Facebook has a 3.29, LinkedIn is 1.81, Accenture is 1.4 and SAP is 1.5.

Do you think this is based on revenue models? Size? The amount of cash on hand? Brand strength? Likelihood of needing to go to the public markets for money?

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#105

Post by smackfu »

lbarrow wrote: post #23

He'll be remembered as a terrible CEO. Ballmer took over as CEO in 2000. In the 13 years since then, Apple has experienced an unprecedented resurgence. Google and Facebook have gone from being obscure startups to giants. The tech industry went through the bubble, recovered, and today is stronger than ever. What happened to Microsoft? While the rest of the tech sector exploded and prospered, it stayed still. A MSFT sh…

MSFT pays a dividend. Just looking at stock price then vs. now is ignoring that. Very common mistake.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#106

Post by mathattack »

Delmania wrote: post #63

I think Ballmer is an interesting case study in perception versus results. He's commonly portrayed as a poor CEO that has led Microsoft in the direction of irrelevance. And yet, to quote oft critic Gruber, "he knows how to make money" ( http://daringfireball.net/linked/2013/04/19/msft-q3 ) I'd love to sit down and talk to him, and see if his vision is a bit more long range than your average industry analyst, similar…

If he really knew how to make money the stock would have performed better. Perhaps he knew how to make money in some industries, and lose money in others.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#107

Post by stephencanon »

sz4kerto wrote: post #45
lbarrow wrote: post #23

He'll be remembered as a terrible CEO. Ballmer took over as CEO in 2000. In the 13 years since then, Apple has experienced an unprecedented resurgence. Google and Facebook have gone from being obscure startups to giants. The tech industry went through the bubble, recovered, and today is stronger than ever. What happened to Microsoft? While the rest of the tech sector exploded and prospered, it stayed still. A MSFT sh…

If an MSFT share was worth 35 when he took over (at the top of the bubble) and it's the same now then it does not mean (at all) that he was a crap CEO. MSFT still remains one of the most important tech companies ever, that's not a small feat. I don't think that he's an extremely brilliant CEO, but tech companies come and go, and MSFT is still close to the top. Even if everyone in the media is 100% focused on mobile n…

$60 at the top of the bubble; it was already in decline when he took over; surely not (entirely) his fault. On the other hand, $35 in 2000 dollars is $47 today, so that’s a significant inflation-adjusted loss of value. On the other other hand, they paid out $7.69 in dividends during that time, which is a reasonable portion of what is lost to inflation.

Where am I going with this? Oh yeah, share price is not a great metric for company or CEO performance, and when its used people rarely evaluate all the factors correctly.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#108

Post by gregd »

uptown wrote: post #79
smackfu wrote: post #26

If you think about it, what does the "within 12 months" part even mean? Like, if the deadline hits, they'll just take whoever they can get?

That they see 12 months as a safe timeline for transition (I'm sure the board already has a short-list), but if they place a CEO in that role before then, and the transition is complete, then Steve will leave early.

I'm guessing the CEOs don't generally make announcements like this, unless a successor is already lined up. 12 months is probably just a guideline for transitioning to the new CEO.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#109

Post by kabdib »

mathattack wrote: post #7

Huge news! Let's see what happens to the stock today. It edged up a little at the end of the day, suggesting that perhaps news was getting out. It's up 8% in premarket trading. [1] One interesting thing to note from that chart is their Beta (a measure of link to market volatility) is less than 1, which is very low for a high tech stock. It basically means that the market views them as less volatile to market conditio…

Thank God. (Speaking as an ex-Microsoftie).

Hopefully MS will lose the "we need to put Windows on everything, including embedded systems" attitude. Windows is a horrible bloated mess barely capable of successfully running on a tablet PC, much less smaller things. (And if you've ever had to /build/ Windows . . . OMG. OMFG).

There are core bits of Windows that are great; the I/O system is incredibly well done. Then then are core pieces of Windows which are incredibly shitty -- in fact, there are registry entries that /nobody knows what they do/. No one has had the gumption to clean that stuff up. But until they do, folks like Apple (who seem to have a good handle on their technology /and/ consumer design) will continue to be fierce competitors.

If they pick the wrong CEO, this could go south pretty quickly. They're going to need someone tough, who has a good horse sense about consumers and can't be snowed by engineering management trying to cover up mistakes.

BillG isn't coming back, but they need someone like him.

Re: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months

#110

Post by bluedino »

lbarrow wrote: post #23

He'll be remembered as a terrible CEO. Ballmer took over as CEO in 2000. In the 13 years since then, Apple has experienced an unprecedented resurgence. Google and Facebook have gone from being obscure startups to giants. The tech industry went through the bubble, recovered, and today is stronger than ever. What happened to Microsoft? While the rest of the tech sector exploded and prospered, it stayed still. A MSFT sh…

On the other hand, think of all the companies Microsoft used to compete with that are basically gone.
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