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Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

bbc.co.uk

241–250 of 265 posts

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#241
post #239
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>hundreds of years after we are all dead >>Radioactive contamination of [...] the oceans Sigh... bad scare mongering. How many percent has the background radiation in the Pacific ocean increased by Fukushima? (Hint: radioactive water is very, very diluted after much less than one century. :-) )

Sure, once it's perfectly stirred every glass of water from the ocean contains radiating Fukushima atoms. You just have to make sure none of your cells is currently on the edge to switch to cancer mode.

Please read up about e.g. statistics, [radiation] risks and Avogadro's number.

This cool xkcd link was posted just next to my GP comment: http://xkcd.com/radiation/

Look especially at the the varying background radiation levels -- and minimum level of radiation that has been proven to increase cancer risk. (And if you're trolling, go to the gym instead.)

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#242
post #239
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>hundreds of years after we are all dead >>Radioactive contamination of [...] the oceans Sigh... bad scare mongering. How many percent has the background radiation in the Pacific ocean increased by Fukushima? (Hint: radioactive water is very, very diluted after much less than one century. :-) )

Sure, once it's perfectly stirred every glass of water from the ocean contains radiating Fukushima atoms. You just have to make sure none of your cells is currently on the edge to switch to cancer mode.

I'm not saying that it's not a problem, but we have been conducting underwater nuclear tests, and dumped an incredible amount of nuclear waste in the ocean (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_disposal_of_radioactive_w...). And we're still alive. Even if we proceed to dump all of Fukushima in the ocean and just forget about it, it will still be extremely diluted and less than what is already there.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#243

Honestly, this is just business as usual for Japanese govt/bureaucracy here. The only difference is that it's the first time in a while that its bullshittery has been thrust onto the international stage. If you're living in Japan or are any how strongly affiliated with it, you'd have to be a moron or just hopelessly incurably optimistic to believe anything the government or these pseudo governmental organizations say…

repeat of my last comment:

"Who's the real terrorists in 2013?" Comfort-maximizing system-lickers.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#244
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably the majority don't. The poorer you are the less choices you have. If they can move its probably to another undesirable location. I doubt that those who live by power plants are wealthy.

The poorer you are the less choices you have. No, the poorer you are the less attractive choices you have. But you still have the ability to weigh your choices and pick the one that poses you the least risk, all things considered.

That's funny and gets funnier the more you think about it. Making your bad choices poorly. I agree with you.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#245
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be easier to put the generators in bunkers and harden them. Yes, that would work, as long as you also protected the switchgear and the power cabling leading to the pumps that serve the reactor. The nuke industry could learn a lot by consulting with airframe engineers. I think the nuke industry in general does pay attention to these things; I was actually somewhat surprised to find that the designers of Fukus…

From what I read about the disaster, there were a long series of design issues that could not withstand failures. As I recall, 1. hydrogen being vented into an enclosed area 2. no backup method for determining coolant levels 3. backup generators were not protected 4. no backup method for adding coolant (I would have had a gravity fed backup system) 5. critical systems were located too close to the reactor - I would h…

1. You cannot prevent that if the reactors cannot be cooled down. Ultimately very high temperatures will break vapor into hydrogen and will cause hydrogen to accumulate on the shell.

3. Backup generators were located in different areas. The only mistake is that they were ALL at ground level. That's unfortunate that they were all wiped out at the same time but one of the largest Tsunami ever, some stuff that almost never happens. They'll learn from that.

> None of these are expensive to do.

Yeah, when you are building the plant, it's not expensive to do. When you have to modify an existing design, it's way more expensive and you'll have to make a good case for why you need it.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#246
post #22
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Except that the Fukushima disaster is about 100 times worse than the New Horizon spill. Really? Everyone is terrified of the radiation bogeyman, but I'd bet there were more injuries and deaths as a result of New Horizon.

Yeah, well, it's easy to make bets on events that will still be playing out hundreds of years after we are all dead, isn't it. Radioactive contamination of the food supply, the oceans, and tens of thousands of people exiled from their hometown for the rest of their lives. 17 injured and 11 dead rig workers is easily comprehended and instant. Doesn't really mean that disaster was worse, though. Just easier to contempl…

Yeah, well there are still people living very close to Chernobyl and who don't die from instant cancer every year. We have no real knowledge of how medium levels of radiation cause safety/health issue. We know very high levels of radiations kill, and low levels or radiation don't kill much, but we have very unreliable data in between, and we know for sure it's not a linear effect.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I take some reassurance that the anti-nuclear guys say we're fucked and pro-nuclear guys say nuclear is still the safest. That means the truth is probably somewhere in the middle ;-)

Sorry if I downvoted sarcasm. Unless you meant "middle" literally as in anything exactly as written by the most extreme of either side, this is a bad way to reason about things. It's the kind of thinking that lets people say "well the anti-vaccine people are pretty strong about their views, but doctors disagree; it's probably somewhere in the middle" and slide about while being incorrect.

Well contrary to what anti-nuclear supporters say, we know from a fact that in terms of death ratio per MWatts produced, Nuclear energy is certainly one of the safest ways to produce energy out there. It's not because there is one bad recent incident that it puts a sudden question mark on the whole technology.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mistakes aren't deterministic, they are largely probabilistic. While ritual suicide might make the victims of an accident feel better, they are ultimately unproductive - there are many classes of disastrous errors that have nothing to do with negligence. Not to mention also, even in incidents with a preventable cause, it is exceedingly rare for there to be a singular cause. Chernobyl, for example, was the culmination…

While I do think a "vast number of errors and safety lapses" is unlikely to come out of a cult (note the word) of engineering which embraces ritual suicide as the cost of failure... This is about human psychology, rather than reliability in the engineering sense. I truly believe it would lead to better safety, but not perfect safety. The idea is that yes, all or most of the engineers involved in a nuclear accident of…

> This is about human psychology, rather than reliability in the engineering sense. I truly believe it would lead to better safety, but not perfect safety.

The problem is that you have no idea how Process Safety works, or even what it is, judging by your posts. As the parent to this post explained, these major hazard events are probabilistic, not deterministic. That means that they can never be completely eliminated, only guarded against and reduced to the point that the benefit is understood to outweigh the risk. There will always be risk.

You suggest that the engineers responsible for designing the plant should commit suicide if this once in a million year event takes place. What about the businessmen who accepted the risk? Or the government who stipulated what the tolerable risk was? Or the people who moved nearby, aware of the risk? Or the workers on the plant who, knowing what the correct maintenance procedures were to keep the plant safely operational, ignored them because it was 'too hard'? What if the root cause was a vector of risk which was poorly understood by everyone at the time? Or the engineering specification was correct, but the materials vendor skimped on QA? Or were lied to by one of their plants? Or a subcontractor of the plant? Etc etc etc.

What you propose, even as a thought experiment, is futile. Because even if you could reduce the risk to only systematic errors made in engineering design, if there was a perceived need or benefit to design the plant, you could always find a group of engineers desperate enough, naive enough, or vain enough to take on the risk. And therefore society as a whole would not be safer.

As it happens there's a large body of engineering knowledge which goes into making dangerous plants 'safe enough' to outweigh the risks to their workers, owners, and society at large. It's not foolproof, but arguably it does a good job of allowing societies to benefit from the dangerous processes we seem so desperate to use. And don't kid yourself - just because these massive events incur a media feeding frenzy, doesn't mean smaller hazardous occurrences don't affect the lives of thousands of people every year. Should we kill everyone who could in some way be held accountable for another's death or injury?

In short, don't let fear guide you into silly knee-jerk reactions. There are massive problems inherent with dangerous processes, and most of them relate to the very human failures of laziness and greed. We're working to improve the situation constantly, but it's a long road and a constant battle.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#250
post #249
post #65

I know what the deniers are going to say: the risk is just equivalent to dumping a banana into the ocean. Whatever.

76 million bananas, to be precise. http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/storie...

76 millons bananas are approximately between 220 and 500 TEUs (standard containers) http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28volume+76+million+ba... Let's multiply that by 2 to account the overhead and space between bananas.

A cargo ship can carry up to 16000 TEUs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Container_ship

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