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Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

bbc.co.uk

111–120 of 265 posts

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#111
post #22
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Except that the Fukushima disaster is about 100 times worse than the New Horizon spill. Really? Everyone is terrified of the radiation bogeyman, but I'd bet there were more injuries and deaths as a result of New Horizon.

Yeah, well, it's easy to make bets on events that will still be playing out hundreds of years after we are all dead, isn't it. Radioactive contamination of the food supply, the oceans, and tens of thousands of people exiled from their hometown for the rest of their lives. 17 injured and 11 dead rig workers is easily comprehended and instant. Doesn't really mean that disaster was worse, though. Just easier to contempl…

I thought the surrounding community was exposed to a level of radiation which cannot be shown to cause adverse effects?

http://xkcd.com/radiation/

Radiation dose in the exclusion zone is two red squares; the minimum for an increased cancer risk is eight red squares.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#112
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things like nuclear meltdowns are black swan events, with a multitude of causes and guilt. I'm not advocating ritual suicide, but I think it's worth noting that in the case of Fukushima, there is an easily identifiable single root cause to all the current problems: the fact that the backup diesel generators and the switchgear for them were sited behind a seawall that was overcome by the tsunami. If they had been on h…

> "the fact that the backup diesel generators and the switchgear for them were sited behind a seawall that was overcome by the tsunami" Sure, but who's responsible for that? I don't mean to say that there must be many technical causes of incidents, but rather that it is almost impossible to find a situation where there is a singular human cause. The multitude of engineers that saw the plans before they went final? Th…

it is almost impossible to find a situation where there is a singular human cause.

But if you can focus in on a single technical decision that had such a large impact, you can at least focus attention on how that particular technical decision got made. Yes, many humans will have been involved even in that single technical decision; but it's still a lot more manageable to look into how it got made than to look at how the entire plant got designed.

We could do something silly to consolidate the guilt

I'm not talking about guilt; I said I wasn't advocating ritual suicide. I'm talking about how to prevent it from happening again. To do that, you need to be able to focus on something that can actually be changed. Take your bus driver example:

Do we punish the driver for his negligence, or his shift supervisor for threatening him into taking an extra-long shift, or someone even further up who knowingly encouraged a culture of overwork?

Depends on the facts. Was the driver negligent? Could he have reasonably predicted that he would fall asleep at the wheel? How could he have acted on such a prediction?

Did the supervisor actually threaten him into taking an extra-long shift? If so, how did he get away with it? Aren't there rules about preventing driver fatigue? (Certainly commercial airline crews have strict rules about how long they can fly before they have to rest.) If not, why not?

Is there a systemic culture of overwork, encouraged from higher up? Do bus drivers in this company routinely drive longer hours than the industry average? Than the average in other similar occupations?

The point is that if you can focus in on specific causal chains, you can direct efforts at changing them. In the case of Fukushima, if you can focus in on how the technical decision to site the backup generators that way got made, you can direct efforts at improving that process. Did the engineers just not realize that siting the backup generators that way was a bad idea? Was the question never even asked? Or did the engineers realize it, but management overruled them? Or did the original design have them sited differently, but time pressure during construction persuaded someone (not the engineers or managers who did the original design) to change the location in order to meet some deadline?

All this, btw, reinforces your point that ritual suicide doesn't help anything.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#113
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I do think a "vast number of errors and safety lapses" is unlikely to come out of a cult (note the word) of engineering which embraces ritual suicide as the cost of failure... This is about human psychology, rather than reliability in the engineering sense. I truly believe it would lead to better safety, but not perfect safety. The idea is that yes, all or most of the engineers involved in a nuclear accident of…

running the risk of turning our children's children into walking bags of cancerous mutation. But here's the thing: we have already had two "nuclear accidents of any significance": Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Neither of those came even remotely close to "turning our children's children into walking bags of cancerous mutation". Nor will Fukushima. Yes, it's very bad for people near the plant, and for fishermen in…

Yes, but I'm not a miner. Coal is much less dangerous for those who live near the power plant.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#114
post #33
post #12

I believe the figure going around is that 200 tonnes of radioactive water, per day, is leaking. This will cause a lot of problems for everyone.

200 tonnes of radioactive water There is a (long) trillion of tons of radioactive water in all the world's oceans. C14, see? "Radioactive water" is a meaningless term.

Of course it would be based on concentrations - but no one is announcing what that is, nor do they seem to really be able to get a clear idea of it - because it's not contained and therefore not accurately measurable.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#115
post #69
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By what standard do you see Fukushima as being worse? Number of casualties? Number of people who had their livelihood directly affected? The effect on the biosphere?

Personally, my weighting factors are: 1. Number of people who died, or will die, weighted by how they die -- painful slow death by internal organ cancers being pretty far up there on my chart. 2. Number of people who have traumatic long term health episodes, like cancer, that degrade their quality of life. Even if it isn't until much later. 3. Number of people who have to leave long-established hometown territory and…

[deleted]

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#116
post #16

I think there are similarities between the nuclear power debate and the GMO debate. In both case, I think it's stupid to be fundamentally opposed to the technology/research itself. But in both case, the industry is so fucked up (lies, too close ties with control authority, ...) that I don't trust them at all. It seems to me this is partially a failure of our current economic system, where the incentives for the indus…

I can think of one thing, and no one will swallow it in our society: The engineers who work on nuclear plants must pledge their lives for its safety, and ritually kill themselves in the event of an incident. I'm perfectly serious, in that it's within the human experience and it would work. I also suspect our world society can't wrap its head around that kind of medieval pact, and I'm not even sure I want to live in t…

this sounds like something the pointy haired boss from dilbert would suggest. Iterating and learning from mistakes is the only way forward. Obviously this won't happen if people start killing themselves. Safety won't improve because you've eliminated the process that allows it to happen.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#117
I remember reading an article around the time of the Fukushima leak where a Chernobyl clean up crew survivor was interviewed. One of the key points was to get out as quickly as possible, that it'll be much worse than the government/industry initially says it is. I made a mental note to see if that ended up being true - looks like it unfortunately may be.

Here's the article: http://www.aolnews.com/2011/03/22/chernobyl-cleanup-survivor...

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#118
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only there was a culture that had a centuries-old tradition of committing painful ritual suicide to atone for failures... I would totally trust those guys to safely run a nuclear plant...

The idea is really old . In the Code of Hammurabi, a builder whose building collapses and kills someone is killed. If the building kills a son, the son of the builder is killed. Simply having it around as a cultural trope ain't gonna do it. I'm talking about a voluntary pledge that assumes the force of law. Turn it around: if an engineer thinks he can build a perfectly safe nuclear plant, why shouldn't he pledge his…

1. Why do you think this was an engineering failure and not a business/implementation failure? For instance, in that famous pedestrian bridge collapse (a pedestrian walkway in a hotel in I think Kansas City collapsed shortly after opening, killing and injuring an absurd number of people), the bridge was designed correctly, but a deviation from the design in construction led to a fatal flaw.

2. What do you consider "perfect"? A lot of things aren't engineered to be perfect, because that's expensive. Instead, a lot of questions -- like with sea walls -- resolve around things like "ten year storms", "hundred year winds", "thousand year earthquakes". It's very possible that the flaw in this design was considered, but it was concluded that it would take a once-every-thousand-years disaster to breach the sea wall and cause a problem. Everyone involved may have agreed that a 1% chance of failure of the lifetime of the plant was acceptable.

Everything is a cost-benefit analysis. At some point, risks are declared "small enough" and everyone agrees to move forward. In this case, a regulatory agency in Japan -- representing the interests of the government and people -- could very easily have signed off on the risk posed by the positioning of the generators.

And more importantly, just because a small risk ends up being realized doesn't mean we were wrong to take it in the first place. Negligence can cause accidents, and negligence can exacerbate accidents, but also sometimes shit happens. Wasting time, money, and people trying to shrink a one-in-a-million risk just because it happened once is stupid, and we do it all the time.

Third, an obligatory "do you even know how bad coal is?" A hundred thousand miners in the US died mining coal in the last century. 6000 died in China in 2004. "Oh no," you say, "nuclear is extra bad because it poisons places for hundreds or thousands of years!" Underground coal fires: a seam of coal exposed through mining can catch fire and burn underground forever. We have no way to put them out. The most famous of these is in Pennsylvania, where a town had to be abandoned because the coal mine underneath it was burning and releasing noxious gasses up to the surface, along with the occasional flaming sinkhole. The fire is expected to keep burning for hundreds of years. There are dozens or hundreds of fires like in the US, and dozens or hundreds more in China.

I wouldn't want to go swimming in that water released from Fukushima, and by all accounts radiation poisoning is a terrible way to day. But so is being crushed to death in a mine collapse, or slowly starving to death underground in the dark, or dying of the various cancers and ailments related to the carcinogens coal plants routinely belch out. Everything we do has risks, from driving to taking a shower to building power plants.

You are presenting a false dichotomy: the choice is not between a world with nuclear disasters and a world with no disasters. It is a choice between nuclear disasters and non-nuclear disasters. We should seek to minimize the chance of nuclear disasters, yes, but we shouldn't treat them as "special" just because they're "scary". We should weigh the risk of a nuclear plant against the risk of non-nuclear plants, fairly, and make the decision that saves the most lives.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#119
post #33
post #12

I believe the figure going around is that 200 tonnes of radioactive water, per day, is leaking. This will cause a lot of problems for everyone.

200 tonnes of radioactive water There is a (long) trillion of tons of radioactive water in all the world's oceans. C14, see? "Radioactive water" is a meaningless term.

I think meaningless is a little strong. We talk about CO2 emissions, even though the air contains CO2. My understanding would be more radioactive than ambient radiation, or something along those lines.

I do agree that seeing some actual numbers would be helpful (eg: types and amount (estimated) of isotopes).

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is really old . In the Code of Hammurabi, a builder whose building collapses and kills someone is killed. If the building kills a son, the son of the builder is killed. Simply having it around as a cultural trope ain't gonna do it. I'm talking about a voluntary pledge that assumes the force of law. Turn it around: if an engineer thinks he can build a perfectly safe nuclear plant, why shouldn't he pledge his…

1. Why do you think this was an engineering failure and not a business/implementation failure? For instance, in that famous pedestrian bridge collapse (a pedestrian walkway in a hotel in I think Kansas City collapsed shortly after opening, killing and injuring an absurd number of people), the bridge was designed correctly, but a deviation from the design in construction led to a fatal flaw. 2. What do you consider "p…

>Everyone involved may have agreed that a 1% chance of failure of the lifetime of the plant was acceptable.

This is the problem. The solution proposed is that they have a bit more skin in the game.

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