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Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#101

Post by furyg3 »

RyanMcGreal wrote: post #76
jre wrote: post #16

I think there are similarities between the nuclear power debate and the GMO debate. In both case, I think it's stupid to be fundamentally opposed to the technology/research itself. But in both case, the industry is so fucked up (lies, too close ties with control authority, ...) that I don't trust them at all. It seems to me this is partially a failure of our current economic system, where the incentives for the indus…

Regulatory capture is a big problem. One of the more bizarre twists in the Japanese nuclear story is that a program to develop robots that could remotely work inside damaged nuclear generating stations was canceled out of fear that it would send a message that nuclear power isn't safe.

If that's true it's very interesting... Do you have any sources?

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#102

Post by reirob »

yxhuvud wrote: post #29
cygwin98 wrote: post #24

I don't know why Japan can get away with this for so long. I remember when the Chernobyl disaster happened, Soviet Union was shamed to death by all western media for years. I had high respect for the Russians for their great efforts to contain the damage. A great many of red army soldiers died when building a concrete substrate underneath the ruined reactor, which prevented the underground water from being contaminat…

Japan is getting away with it because there is no radioactive rain impacting other countries.

This might be, but at the same time the problem is not resolved and contained as it was in Chernobyl.

"We have three 100-ton melted fuel blobs underground, but where exactly they are located, no one knows. Whatever 'barriers' TEPCO has put in place so far have failed. Efforts to decontaminate radioactive water have failed. Robots have failed. Camera equipment and temperature gauges...failed. Decontamination of surrounding cities has failed. " [..] "If and when the corium reaches the Tokyo aquifer, serious and expedient discussions will have to take place about evacuating 40 million people"

Considering these future threats have not been resolved in any way I must say I respect for Soviet Unions reaction in Chernobyl case.

EDIT: Quotes taken from article linked in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6232104

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#103

Post by bluecalm »

samatman wrote: post #50
jre wrote: post #16

I think there are similarities between the nuclear power debate and the GMO debate. In both case, I think it's stupid to be fundamentally opposed to the technology/research itself. But in both case, the industry is so fucked up (lies, too close ties with control authority, ...) that I don't trust them at all. It seems to me this is partially a failure of our current economic system, where the incentives for the indus…

I can think of one thing, and no one will swallow it in our society: The engineers who work on nuclear plants must pledge their lives for its safety, and ritually kill themselves in the event of an incident. I'm perfectly serious, in that it's within the human experience and it would work. I also suspect our world society can't wrap its head around that kind of medieval pact, and I'm not even sure I want to live in t…

You touched on very important idea applicable not only to nuclear industry: it's good when workers at all levels have personal stake in success of the enterprise the work for- stake as in part of profit but part of responsibility as well. Unfortunately our current culture/economic system introduces disconnect in that respect. It's bad enough in non-critical endeavors and very dangerous in industries like nuclear or say medical research.

My observation is that the biggest obstacle to things going into desired direction of aligned incentives is hierarchical management system. You can't expect workers (engineers in nuclear example) to take all responsibility or even feel responsibility when they rarely have a say in budgeting, safety policy or overall strategy of corporation they work for. If the system was more democratic so to speak then I can see it happening but currently most endeavors are interested in "minimal pay, no say" policy when it comes to hiring.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#104

Post by consultant23522 »

lignuist wrote: post #10

Why is the japanese government letting TEPCO deal with the disaster on their own? Why is the rest of the world letting Japan deal with the disaster on it's own? Contaminating the Pacific Ocean constantly with radioactive water surely affects a lot of other states. This is something experts (TEPCO is obviously not in this position) should handle. The bill for handling the disaster could then be presented at a later ti…

Because the government does not have the equipment or expertise to handle the situation. And quite frankly, neither does anyone else.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#105

Post by hardwaresofton »

As a person who was in japan during the touhoku earthquake, and I'd like to point out that most of the japanese people probably have no idea what is happening in regards to this. If it's on the news, they are probably airing it BECAUSE of the global shitstorm tha has emerged. The only news I trusted while I was there was the BBC (Japanese news told you nothing, American news were sensationalizing every thing, slow at best, wrong at worst)

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#106

Post by api »

rangibaby wrote: post #99
api wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly every Fukushima mega-scare story I've encountered seems to go back to Arnie Gunderson, who is a professional anti-nuclear consultant. At the same time, I see a near information blackout from other authorities. There just doesn't seem to be much good information on this one way or the other. Radiation is very easy to detect. If there's a serious leak, people outside Japan could see it. Where is this data?

I take some reassurance that the anti-nuclear guys say we're fucked and pro-nuclear guys say nuclear is still the safest. That means the truth is probably somewhere in the middle ;-)

I think it proves Heisenberg was right. Reality is determined by the political slant of the observer. :)

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#107

Post by pdonis »

lignuist wrote: post #94
pdonis wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, let's try to keep things in perspective, please. This is very bad for the people that are near the plant, no question. But in global terms, the total amount of contaminated water that could potentially leak is miniscule. The Pacific Ocean is really, really big. The article says that 400 metric tons of contaminated water are being added every day. Let's say that leakage rate goes on for 5 years. That's about a mil…

> but since there are four reactors at risk at Fukushima, we would expect the global effects to be about four times the global effect of Chernobyl. Fukushima stores a lot more fuel than Chernobyl did. It's not just four times Chernobyl. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/amount-radioactive-fuel-fuk... Also the Soviets reacted pretty fast in comparison to TEPCO and made sure, that a lot of the material did not escape, w…

It's not just four times Chernobyl.

It looks like the total right now is about 10 times Chernobyl, but if TEPCO keeps transferring more spent fuel to the storage pools, it could go up to 24 times Chernobyl (the total spent fuel inventory).

I would still argue that 24 times Chernobyl is nowhere near "apocalyptic" on a global scale. But you're right, it's good to work with the correct numbers.

the Soviets reacted pretty fast in comparison to TEPCO and made sure, that a lot of the material did not escape

Once they had a chance to react, yes. But a lot of the radioactive material inside the Chernobyl reactor was released with the combined hydrogen and graphite explosion which happened very early in the sequence of events, before anything could be contained. After that explosion, as I understand it, there wasn't a lot left to contain. The only way that release could have been prevented would have been if the Soviets had had the sense to build a secondary containment structure around the reactor, which they didn't.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#108

Post by alanctgardner2 »

Bootvis wrote: post #91
samatman wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is really old . In the Code of Hammurabi, a builder whose building collapses and kills someone is killed. If the building kills a son, the son of the builder is killed. Simply having it around as a cultural trope ain't gonna do it. I'm talking about a voluntary pledge that assumes the force of law. Turn it around: if an engineer thinks he can build a perfectly safe nuclear plant, why shouldn't he pledge his…

I guess you missed the joke that Japan has this culture somewhat. In my western mind it is something that samuria do. Regardless, reading up on the Code of Hammurabi is interesting :)

So the joke is...you're a bigot? Seppuku is not a common part of modern Japanese culture, nor is the death penalty a uniquely Japanese idea.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#109

Post by Bootvis »

alanctgardner2 wrote: post #108
Bootvis wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you missed the joke that Japan has this culture somewhat. In my western mind it is something that samuria do. Regardless, reading up on the Code of Hammurabi is interesting :)

So the joke is...you're a bigot? Seppuku is not a common part of modern Japanese culture, nor is the death penalty a uniquely Japanese idea.

I guess that's the joke but it isn't mine. I don't think understanding the joke makes me a bigot.

Fact is, seppuku is a part of relatively recent Japanese culture whereas it's not a part of European culture. In Europe suicide has been socially unacceptable since the fall of the Roman Empire.

Re: Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'

#110

Post by stygiansonic »

furyg3 wrote: post #101
RyanMcGreal wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regulatory capture is a big problem. One of the more bizarre twists in the Japanese nuclear story is that a program to develop robots that could remotely work inside damaged nuclear generating stations was canceled out of fear that it would send a message that nuclear power isn't safe.

If that's true it's very interesting... Do you have any sources?

This is one anecdote I found: http://crasar.org/2011/03/17/word-from-japan-on-robots-and-f...
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