I can't shake the feeling that for this crowd (to which the authors/researchers belong), the term guest worker has sort of become a code for "those cheap Indians". I'm also guessing the authors (and most people in this crowd) have never associated with a guest worker outside of their field of work.
I don't necessarily disagree, but I don't see why that shouldn't be just as true for people on the other side of the issue. As in, "We have a shortage, let's get some cheap Indians in here."
The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
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Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#62It's not bogus. Many if not most of the big high tech companies have open positions they can't find people for. If anyone is curious where the mistake is in this article's reasoning, it's in the assumption that people are more or less interchangeable, and that all you have to do is train them to be Xes, and you can have as many Xes as you want. Whereas the reason there are open positions for programmers at high tech…
can't find people for the wage they're offering. The people they want are doing other things.
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
If anyone is curious where the mistake is in this article's reasoning, it's in the assumption that people are more or less interchangeable, and that all you have to do is train them to be Xes, and you can have as many Xes as you want. What about the assertion that companies are struggling to fill these roles because (a) they demand more from potential candidates while (b) offering no more in wages than what we saw 10…
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up the Brookings paper [2] to support the authors' case. They clearly said this at the beginning: "Without attempting to fully resolve this complex issue, new detailed data on H-1B wages by occupation, presented more fully here, suggests that the H-1B program helps to fill a shortage of workers in STEM occupations."
From a theoretical standpoint, it is likely that the extra supply of foreign-born workers does bring downward pressure on the wages of incumbent workers, as research suggests.20 Yet, it appears that demand is so strong relative to supply that even the inflow of H-1B workers is not enough to meet the demand of U.S. companies and push wage growth down to normal levels.
You're absolutely right--what lazy work by PBS (and me, for assuming they fact-checked). Ugh.
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#64If I want a prime rib-eye steak for $5 and can find it, is there a beef shortage?
Has any study not sponsored by the Industry shown that there is a "labor shortage" in STEM fields?
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#65It's not bogus. Many if not most of the big high tech companies have open positions they can't find people for. If anyone is curious where the mistake is in this article's reasoning, it's in the assumption that people are more or less interchangeable, and that all you have to do is train them to be Xes, and you can have as many Xes as you want. Whereas the reason there are open positions for programmers at high tech…
Spain 14
France 3
Germany 2
Portugal 3
Croatia 1
Argentina 1
Brazil 2
Given the Schengen agreement, that means that 22 out of 25 players (88%) are not guest workers.
EDIT: 22 out of 26 (85%)
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#66It's not bogus. Many if not most of the big high tech companies have open positions they can't find people for. If anyone is curious where the mistake is in this article's reasoning, it's in the assumption that people are more or less interchangeable, and that all you have to do is train them to be Xes, and you can have as many Xes as you want. Whereas the reason there are open positions for programmers at high tech…
Maybe they should try paying like stars. What percentage of engineers that aren't founders or within the first five employees make over $300,000 a year? The money is in Silicon Valley, Google's 2011 net income was $299,874/employee [1], but the vast majority of engineers aren't going to be the ones to get it.
How about paying a market wage, instead of offering a "free lunch" to people that cannot negotiate. I am not interested in playing video games at work, I have a house for that. Last I looked at it, the difference in pay between finance and stem jobs is enough to hire a personal chef to deliver lunch to you at work every day, and cook for you at home, and buy all the games you want, with a bunch of money left over. Apple and Google are both posting ~25% net profits because engineers are willing to work for peanuts, and a free lunch. On top of that, cost of living in the bay area is outrageous, we're talking $35,000/year for housing, unless you want to live like a college student.
An average (median) engineer should be making $200,000 a year, and the "rockstar" (>80th percentile) engineers that everybody is trying to hire for $85,000 and 0.5% of equity, should be making $350,000+. These are hard jobs that few people can do at all, and fewer can do well. Great engineers can create millions of dollars of value a year.
It seems that the industry has shifted focus, now that the collusion agreements have been squashed, toward importing cheap labor. This problem has been solved in other industries through partnerships and professional societies (e.g. in the legal industry, with large partnership firms and bar associations). In the interim, it seems like the best way to capture value is to build companies to flip in talent acquisitions, while planning to leave to do it again as soon as you're vested.
[1] Goldman Sachs 2011 net income was $162,913 per employee. Average pay was $367,057. It's harder to get data on Google, but it looks like the mid-career median salary is $141,000.
Google's Gross Profit (Total Revenue less Cost of Revenue) was $24.7B in 2011, and GS's was $24.5B. At the same time, Google had 32,467 employees to GS's 35,700. Yet, the Google net income was $9.7B compared to $4.4B on the GS side. The difference seems to be made up entirely by the difference in employee compensation.
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#67Please note that his work is backed up research, please consult the links on his site.
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#68Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#69Good overview by Professor Norm Matloff : http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/h1b.html Please note that his work is backed up research, please consult the links on his site.
Re: The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think there's granular enough information in there to support your conclusion. To illustrate, imagine that IT workers used to get paid a $100k real wage in 2000 and a $50k real wage today. Imagine computer scientists and programmers got paid a $100k real wage in 2000 and get a $150k real wage today. Bundling them all into IT would lead you to mistakenly conclude that a computer scientist would expect to make…
To be fair, it's not my conclusion. I just suggested an alternate explanation. :) You're right that the Brookings article suggests that my quote isn't the case. I wish we had more information on how they controlled for different effects. IIRC BLS etc don't generally control for cost-of-living, and Brookings doesn't discuss the issue except for in the conclusion: Likewise, the bureau should also consider how demand an…