Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're talking about only the USA. Actually, violent crime spiked in late 80s and then was coming down from that spike in the 90s, so there's that confounding factor. Most of the crime in the late 80s was juvenile crime in fact. It might have had to do with the culture of the time (inner city gangs, etc.) A better way would be to compare what people focus on / use on a daily basis today vs in the 80s. If you are rest…
I'm talking across the industrialized world. The availability of the internet and other 'pacification networks' may be a contributing factor but it's clearly not the driving force.
Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
161–170 of 190 posts
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you own a plane, you're rich globally.
Same for cars, but people don't try to paint car owners as rich jerks.
I would still say "rich jerks" is overstating things, but there's not zero relevance.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#163This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...
Steven Pinker on the lead theory: There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does not instantly turn someone into a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in some childr…
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#164Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
Same for cars, but people don't try to paint car owners as rich jerks.
The average plane owner is richer than the average car owner. The average plane owner needs the plane less than the average car owner needs the car. The average car isn't burning leaded fuel. I would still say "rich jerks" is overstating things, but there's not zero relevance.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#166This has led to a decline in two professions: electronics/appliance repair and thievery. Just as it doesn't make sense to repair most consumer goods, it doesn't make sense to steal them, either.
The street price of stolen goods is a tiny fraction of the new or even the used goods price. When new prices are so low, the miniscule price of stolen goods means that it is not worth the risk of getting caught stealing.
The decline in domestic manufacturing may also have a bearing on other crime rates. Depression and hopelessness in a population, paradoxically, do not necessarily lead to increased violence.
Look at any enslaved population; the first job of the keepers is always to create hopelessness, so that the population is easier to control.
Violence declines in any enslaved population--at least, violence against the keepers. And violent crime among the enslaved is rarely reported, partly because the keepers don't care and partly because the enslaved do not trust the keepers.
Criminals have either become anergic or else they have switched to confidence scams like organized religion. Religion, unfortunately, does not get reported as a crime.
Edit:sp.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well I'm pretty sure I'm less rich than Cory if he is a MS employee. I pay about $85/hour to fly and don't own a plane. If I lived in the USA it would be $68/hr due to lower gas prices. I think the majority of Americans can afford to spend $68/month on their hobby (assuming they flew once a month).
There are high school students who drop thousands of $$$ into their hobbies. My hobby (computers and video games) was cheap in comparison to those getting tuned-up small cars as made famous in movies and racing games. $68/hr is a fairly inexpensive hobby indeed.
I also have to wonder where high-school students who drop thousands of dollars into their hobbies are getting their money from. Parents?
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#168Crime falling in some places just because being dumb looter or thief is less respectable than being "easy" credit consumption bunny. Why should you try to knock down a drunk for a smartphone, or press some fast-food stall for money while you can drive a cheap new Korean car "brought" without even first payment.
But in places like Russia even this doesn't work. These miserable rednecks will never learn (being uneducated and unemployed have no access to A-class credit) and because they are the wast majority, anyone who is trying to lead modern consumption lifestyle are regarded as a peacock or even gay.
And, of course, being a low-level criminal is inferior comparing to a "successful" corrupted official of any kind, driving $100k cars on the very same streets. It is very common in Russia to see people who live in a miserable soviet time panel housing blocks, but having a luxury car in a parking lot.
So, street crime falls with easy credit, but this is only temporarily. Any severe economic disturbance and you will have it all back on the streets.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Steven Pinker on the lead theory: There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does not instantly turn someone into a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in some childr…
This caution makes sense in general, and it is good to be skeptical of long chains of causation. However, we know so little about the brain that it's possible we're missing a much shorter chain of causation. It's possible that impulsiveness, IQ, aggression, etc. is only tenuously related to whatever aspect of the brain actually affects criminality. A very strong circumstantial case shouldn't be dismissed just because…
On the other hand, if a convincing causal chain can't be identified, it shouldn't be assumed true either. It should go into the (very large) pool of interesting possibilities that may or may not be substantiated if someone wants to invest in the time and energy to research.
Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you own a plane, you're rich globally.
Same for cars, but people don't try to paint car owners as rich jerks.
Give me an electric powered tri (trash) cycle anyday.