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Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

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Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#91

Post by wutbrodo »

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #68
bilbo0s wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

Did you get your drug folklore/knowledge from "Reefer Madness"? Can you cite any credible evidence that pot use is even remotely associated with violent behavior?

This is the exact opposite of what his post is saying.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#92

Post by gcb0 »

bluedino wrote: post #88
pekk wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s They weren't "ubiquitous" for poor kids. For those kids, there was no way they would get their parents to buy us anything for (the 1991 equivalent of) $350 and $85/game. Nobody assumed that upper middle class kids were normally carrying out burglaries...

The poor kids had Nintendo and Sega back then, just like the poor kids have Xbox and PlayStation today.

Maybe in middle class usa. Other places had very high import taxes for electronics.

Ps1 was actually 100x more common than sega/nintendo in my 3rd world childhood because it was almost free to get games.

For the price of a cartridge rental for two days you could get a pirate cd.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#93

Post by csomar »

jseliger wrote: post #66
drcode wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but how much would you get for that smartphone if you brought it to a pawn shop? Assuming you properly reset its data and convince the pawn shop owner it isn't stolen I bet you could get $30 at most. (And if the phone is locked down and the thief can't jailbreak it it essentially has a value $0)

On the other hand, you could probably make a lot selling on Craigslist. I've been selling my family's old phones and computers for years, and the market is robust. Not $500 robust, but two-year-old iPhones go for about $200 (which, probably not coincidentally, is the upgrade price for a new phone).

I guess it's much harder to sell a phone without its charger and box. I'd suspect that the property is stolen.

Please anyone buying old phones/property ask for the purchase invoice. It's possible that it's a stolen property and you can get in trouble later.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#94

Post by skinnymuch »

bilbo0s wrote: post #54
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

> I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason.

We aren't reaching. There is strong evidence for lead being a major factor

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#95

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

coryrc wrote: post #76
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

Are you so sure they're rich? All the small airplane owners I have known drove beat-up old cars (often with a "My other car is an airplane" bumper sticker) in order to afford their aviation habit.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#96

Post by fnordfnordfnord »

happyhappy wrote: post #85
fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you get your drug folklore/knowledge from "Reefer Madness"? Can you cite any credible evidence that pot use is even remotely associated with violent behavior?

He seems to suggest that pot has a calming effect vs PCP

I guess I misunderstood the comment the first time around.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#97

Post by g8oz »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Lets not forget Roe vs. Wade in 1973. Right on cue 20 years later crime started dropping.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#98

Post by leke »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Don't forget the internet as well.

In Finland, there has also been a drop in alcohol consumption and an increase in Cannabis use. Most of the offences here are done under the influence of alcohol.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#99

Post by RyanMcGreal »

casca wrote: post #26
RyanMcGreal wrote: post #20

If you haven't read it, Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature is a tour-de-force on the factors that have reduced violence of all kinds.

While I do support some of Pinker's arguments, there are objections to many of his assertions. This piece is a good, well referenced academic challenge: http://www.zcommunications.org/steven-pinker-on-the-alleged-...

The linked article mainly answers Pinker's data with anecdotes and US-hating (however justifiable). Notwithstanding Herman and Peterson's radical critique of Pinker's Enlightenment liberalism and some quibbles about selecting preferential methods of evaluation for casualty counts, they completely ignore the fact that Pinker's data analysis actually encompasses their outraged counterexamples.

That is, everything Herman and Peterson say about US postwar military adventures is more or less correct, but that doesn't undermine Pinker's argument that overall rates of violence have been in steady decline for centuries. Neither high levels of civilian casualties nor military industrialism nor mercantilism nor imperialism nor ideological conflict nor genocide nor civil war were inventions of the 20th century - an in all cases, their overall global trajectory has been downward.

With respect to WWI and WWII, Pinker goes to a great deal of trouble to explain and justify his argument that they represent outliers - trouble Herman and Peterson dismiss with dripping sarcasm but no counter-arguments.

Sidenote: there are only 8 footnotes, of which one is a note that the essay was first published elsewhere. The only references to critiques of Pinker's book (rather than general references to studies on particular wars or American militarism) are a few references to critiques of Pinker's assertion that pre-civilization nomads lived violent lives. One reference refers to anthropologist Douglas P. Fry, but while Fry takes issue with Pinker's case for rates of violence in pre-civilization societies, he does not disagree with Pinker's main thesis: "Pinker’s basic claim is itself largely on target: Physical violence has been decreasing over recent millennia."

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#100

Post by lolcraft »

bilbo0s wrote: post #54
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

> They are dealing with the impoverished young men of today, high on pot and trolling for snacks. That is, they would be trolling for snacks if the munchies are ever able to override their desire to keep playing whatever video game.

Downvoted for being hilarious while talking out of your ass. FYI, pot has a (very) mellowing and relaxing effect. The idea of the munchies as some sort of dangerous rampage in search of food is hilarious; it usually involves more sitting on the couch and putting some Pink Floyd on (or Flying Lotus if you like rap, whatever), than presenting menaces to racially prejudiced vigilantes.

PCP is a dissociative anaesthetic. You aren't going to be very dangerous on it. More like dizzy, and confused, and very clumsy. Hardly killer stuff, for others at least.

Now, what's funny is the drugs you don't mention. Some people on cocaine, or alcohol, usually white Wall Street guys and other posh denizens, can behave like assholes. The kind of people who'll be self-aggrandizing, selfish douches, and hit you on the neck from behind if they get angry. But, since neighborhood watchers don't kill white drunkards, there's no need to rationalize retroactively our racism with those drugs.

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