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Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

71–80 of 190 posts

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#71

I think historians will look back at the early 21st century and note that Soma was best served digitally, rather than chemically.

what does this mean? what is Soma?

Soma was the recreational drug in Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World", a sci-fi dystopia book that presented a different view of the future than Orwell's 1984.

In it, the government uses entertainment and technology to keep people within their assigned classes as opposed to military force and surveillance.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#72
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. I really like your argument but I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s. I do wonder what role t…

> I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s They weren't "ubiquitous" for poor kids. For those kids, there was no way they would get their parents to buy us anything for (the 1991 equivalent of) $350 and $85/game. Nobody assumed that upper middle class kids were normally carrying out burglaries...

NES+games were about half that. That's what middle class kids played, even in the early SNES/PS1 era.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#73
post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

> But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically.

This is not logically sound. Brazil could have other factors which increase crime more than getting rid of lead reduces it. The fact that Brazil's crime has increased does not, in any way, tell us that the lead ban couldn't possibly be a major factor in the US's drop in crime.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#74
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

Lead bans in America varied by state, the end date on that wikipedia page is a misleading number in that leaded gasoline use had been substantially reduced starting many years earlier. There was a major drop in leaded gasoline starting in the early 70s, by 1980 it was down over 50% from peak. By 1986 it was down over 90%. I can't speak to the implementation of lead reduction leading to the outright ban in Brazil, but…

Oblig link on "after-the-fact-recognition": http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/01/looney-gas-and-lea...

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#75
post #36

There's no mention of the rise of the welfare state. I'd be surprised if the presence of an economic safety net didn't have an impact on people's willingness to commit crime. In the end, I'm sure the answer is a combination of all these factors. As individuals and as a species, we get better at living as time goes on.

If it's true that welfare makes it less likely for someone to commit a crime then wouldn't that also mean it makes them less likely to get a job?

To some degree. Which do you think most people would prefer?

Crime

Welfare

Gainful Employment

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#76
post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly!

http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#77
post #38

I wonder if easier access to contraception, pornography and abortion have decreased the number of youth without access to opportunity and/or supervision.

heritability either biologically or by culture of crime?

Anyone with a genetic/cultural predisposition to addiction died as a crack addict in 1980-something, therefore no kids with the same predisposition alive in 2013? Don't have to be dead, just a reproductive failure. No kids, kids taken away, life in prison, etc.

Another interpretation is most crime is done by young urban males. A recent-ish development is the Daddy-figure has basically disappeared from the lives of those people, criminal or non-criminal alike. Therefore no following in Dad's footsteps if you have no idea who or what a Dad is. Which is too bad when Dad's not a dirtbag, but if he is, its probably a net positive.

Lack of employement opportunities, especially among the most disadvantaged, means the most disadvantaged kids are no longer latchkey kids?

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#78

As a Marxist, i see an explanation of this in that the crime thrives in societies numerically dominated by proletariat: people who have nothing to lose are easily motivated into crime, much easier their children with no view of the future. When the proletariat declined in numbers, so did the crime.

Serious question. Aren't there more proles now?

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#79

As a Marxist, i see an explanation of this in that the crime thrives in societies numerically dominated by proletariat: people who have nothing to lose are easily motivated into crime, much easier their children with no view of the future. When the proletariat declined in numbers, so did the crime.

You may well be right. Then comes that big step from Hypothesis to Theory. Lots of research, boring work digging through white papers, reading old journals, constructing tests, requesting funding, and finally analyzing results. That is why hypotheses are like opinions, everyone has one, but real, hard data is respected. “What are the facts? Again and again and again--what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore…

"In the land of truth the man with one fact is king"

Linton Barwick

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#80

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

I'd point to the internet in general as well. It's pretty much ubiquitous at this point. Just stay inside and spend hours on youtube and facebook instead of going outside and getting up to no good.
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