Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 190 posts

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#51

Post by s_q_b »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Cheap entertainment, available and effective family planning, and reduction in environmental toxins (e.g. lead) would all be likely suspects to me.

We looked at this once in class from a quantitative perspective, and IIRC, family planning was the only one that comported with the data.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#52

Post by tomrod »

pitt1980 wrote: post #45
moron4hire wrote: post #2

I think historians will look back at the early 21st century and note that Soma was best served digitally, rather than chemically.

what does this mean? what is Soma?

My best guess: something referring to Brave New World/1984/Clockwork Orange?

Or perhaps this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soma

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#53

Post by drcode »

marknutter wrote: post #43
thejteam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, expanding on this, people carry less cash both on their person and in their homes.

Yeah, but they carry $500 smartphones with them now instead.

Right, but how much would you get for that smartphone if you brought it to a pawn shop? Assuming you properly reset its data and convince the pawn shop owner it isn't stolen I bet you could get $30 at most.

(And if the phone is locked down and the thief can't jailbreak it it essentially has a value $0)

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#54

Post by bilbo0s »

tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason.

If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation.

Drugs.

Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverished young men of today, high on pot and trolling for snacks. That is, they would be trolling for snacks if the munchies are ever able to override their desire to keep playing whatever video game.

If we consider the issue in a rational fashion for a moment, it's not terribly surprising that Rodney King was hyped up on PCP and trolling for another hit, whereas Trayvon Martin was high on pot and trolling for snacks.

And, again, when one tries to consider the matter rationally, these two people represent two fundamentally different elements. With predictable impact on statistics when their stories are "writ large" in a society.

If your crime is coming from demographic groups like this... then your crime will probably change with the changing drug use pattern.

It's not a popular notion, because it smacks of "evil"... but drugs really can be used to determine and direct the course of a society.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#55

Post by roc »

danso wrote: post #29

A little OT, but related to current events: Detroit, which has been facing fiscal problems, has enjoyed a drop in crime even though budget deficits has forced the city to cut hundreds of officers: http://news.yahoo.com/detroit-crime-down-murder-rate-1736002... And yet the murder rate is relatively stagnant, and this year reached a peak: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/04/16352612-weve-los... How to reconcile…

> "How to reconcile these things?"

1. 'urban lead' is a studied off-shoot of the lead hypothesis. Detroit's lead situation is a studied and known problem. So lingering crime in Detroit is actually expected under the lead hypothesis. Particularly as the population shrinks and the remaining citizen 'average' shifts poorer, with a more-toxic environment.

2. 'structural' crime. Opportunists considering theft as a means to an end might be dissuaded as the risk/reward equation shifts. But convincing a (drug) gang that it's no longer a good idea to murder a rat/rival is much more difficult.

3. Detroit's shrinking police coverage. The police department has explicitly warned people away from certain areas of the city, because they don't have the resources to provide effective coverage. This can only be interpreted as an 'opportunity' for structural crime.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/08/14294269-visit-de...

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#56

Post by wilfra »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Nice one, ya probably true.

Smartphone and camera ubiquity probably also plays a role. Just as cops know if they try to Rodney King somebody it will be on YouTube an hour later, so are criminals aware there will be a bunch of digital evidence.

Support is given to this by the fact that many of the crimes that are rising are things people can't witness you doing (bank fraud, identity theft etc).

And it's definitely not a silver bullet doing this. It's a combination of all of the factors in the article and here on HN and more we haven't thought of, all doing their part.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#57

Post by btilly »

bilbo0s wrote: post #54
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason.

Reaching???

There was strong evidence that lead caused widespread and permanent damage to children's brains. Therefore the USA spent billions to remove it from our environment. After it is removed, asking whether this made a difference IS NOT a reach.

PARTICULARLY NOT when compared to a hypothesis of differences in drug use over time that you've provided no evidence for.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#58

Post by ufmace »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

I wonder how much of it has to do with how kids getting caught for entry-level crimes like petty vandalism and shoplifting are treated. Are they getting thrown into big prisons where they can learn from their fellow inmates how to deal drugs, rob stores safely, steal identities, etc, and also get a criminal record that prevents them from ever getting an education or an honest job paying more than minimum wage? Or are they getting just enough of an encounter with the legal system to scare the crap out of them without any of the potential long-term consequences?

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#59

Post by petercooper »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down.

I really like your argument but I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s. I do wonder what role the quality of graphics plays here too (especially with regards to portraying violence).

Games in the 90s did cost more than AAA titles today but not by a huge amount and the hardware was similarly priced. Maybe it just took a couple more decades for gaming to be considered a truly mainstream activity rather than something for the geekier kids.

Post reply on HN