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Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times

publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com

91–94 of 94 posts

Re: Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times

#91
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What she does have in terms of power is getting to say whatever she wants, about anyone at the Times, without fear of being fired. Do you really think a corporation would allow serious injury to come to its reputation especially when its reputation is critical to its business? Do you think if the public editor starting leveling serious critique at the NYT in the vein of FAIR, Media Lens or Chomsky they would retain…

The position is generally given to a veteran journalist...Sullivan was formerly the editor of the Buffalo News. So to answer your question, she, and others before her, aren't likely to launch bombs at the NYT because like most members of a group, you have enough experience to know that controversies are more complicated underneath the surface. So no, they're not going to hire someone who is either actively bent on di…

The position is given to someone that is sympathetic to corporate journalism, it has nothing to do with being a "veteran". And the fact that "complicated" issues, as defined of course by someone employed by the NYT, are off-limits just serve to bolster my point. Notwithstanding the fact that nearly all of the important criticisms are dead simple. Why are the main issues raised by serious media critics, like systemic bias and corporate influence, never raised by the public editor?

The intent of real criticism is to improve the actual role of the newspaper in relation to the public. The NYT doesn't hire people who do real criticism because real accountability to the public isn't the main incentive of the NYT: revenue and power relations are. The illusion of accountability is necessary, which is why they have the public editor in the first place, because otherwise people wouldn't buy their products, be influenced by their messages and see their ads.

It is the height of absurdity to believe that someone who gets paid by an organization would be unbiased in its criticism of it or that they would act in the interests of a third party, in this case the public, from whom they receive no direct benefit.

Re: Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times

#92
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't communicate my point effectively. Let me try again. I believe strongly in quantitative analysis of election data. I place zero value in punditry, especially from main stream media. What I don't believe is that some of these complicated models, Silver's in particular, are meaningfully superior to predicting the election by trivially applying recent polling data augmenting it perhaps with a simple weighted com…

> I take as a given that Silver's model is better than punditry. I am skeptical that it is better than the trivial model which any undergraduate stats student would cook up. This seems quite easy to test. Has anyone done so yet?

I haven't seen it.

Re: Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't communicate my point effectively. Let me try again. I believe strongly in quantitative analysis of election data. I place zero value in punditry, especially from main stream media. What I don't believe is that some of these complicated models, Silver's in particular, are meaningfully superior to predicting the election by trivially applying recent polling data augmenting it perhaps with a simple weighted com…

What would the trivial/baseline model be, just a straight average of all state polls for the last X days? That would be interesting to know, but also easy to find out.

I wouldn't say there is a canonical baseline model but your example would be a reasonable place to start. Weighted average by sample size is a straightforward modification. Just using the most recent reliable poll would also be interesting.

I think most of the extra value you could add would be from analyzing the poll data to get a sense of which polls were unreliable.

Re: Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times

#94
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if they could compete. Disney/ESPN is as deep pocketed, lets him get closer to sports (don't forget, he made his name originally as the guy who created PECOTA), and gives him as much or more freedom as the NYT. Also, I don't doubt he looked at what ESPN has allowed Grantland to become under Bill Simmons.

I think he took the easy path. Probably a lot more money, but also he gets to work on sports predictions instead of angering relatively powerful people.

I really don't think he cares about angering powerful people. He cares about his freedom to work on what he wants, which ESPN has done an admirably good job of allowing Simmons to do with Grantland.
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