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The Baltic Demographic Disaster

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Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#51

Post by glesica »

slc wrote: post #27
sologoub wrote: post #21

The Baltic demographic situation is indeed very complex. The article does little justice to this. Someone has already raised the question of ethnic Russians and other non-Baltic origin leaving these countries. This section of the population actually have a very strong incentive to leave - they are considered non-citizen and have none of the EU privileges[1]. According to the same Wikipedia article, Latvia alone start…

Mixing in the non-citizens in a discussion about demographics seems wrong. Most of the non-citizens are people around retirement age - factory workers who were sent in the country from other soviet countries, military families and so on. The cause for reduction in numbers of non-citizens is simple - they died. Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong, because the requirements to acqu…

> Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong

I don't know about that, ever been to Narva? Ethnic Russians are, at least to some extent, in a position similar to that of African Americans in the US, but it is easier for them to leave since they just arrived a few decades ago, whereas African Americans have been in the US long enough to have established long-term connections and to have lost contact with the "old world". So it seems pretty reasonable to me to say that Ethnic Russians have an incentive to leave the Baltic states.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#52

Post by jeffdavis »

vanderZwan wrote: post #7
kibwen wrote: post #5

"over the past two decades, their populations have collapsed at a historically unprecedented rate." I don't think it's completely unprecedented, but I doubt that people will take heart in being compared favorably to the Black Death. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

And what if we narrow it down to population collapse as a result of emigration?

It doesn't seem wildly different from say, Detroit. It looks like the population declined about 30% over the last 20 years[1].

Granted, the population is smaller than the Baltic states, but the population of the Baltic states is also smaller than that of Russia.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Detroit

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#53

Post by slc »

glesica wrote: post #51
slc wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mixing in the non-citizens in a discussion about demographics seems wrong. Most of the non-citizens are people around retirement age - factory workers who were sent in the country from other soviet countries, military families and so on. The cause for reduction in numbers of non-citizens is simple - they died. Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong, because the requirements to acqu…

> Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong I don't know about that, ever been to Narva? Ethnic Russians are, at least to some extent, in a position similar to that of African Americans in the US, but it is easier for them to leave since they just arrived a few decades ago, whereas African Americans have been in the US long enough to have established long-term connections and to have…

No, I haven't. I live in Latvia. I'm sure that the older generation of Estonians don't like the russians, because they blame them for the ~50 years of life under a communist dicatorship, the relatives lost in the siberian death camps and so on. But comparing this dislike to the history of slavery and segregation, linchings and so on of african americans seems stupid and the qualification of "to some extent" doesn't remedy that. Again, can't really speak about Estonia, if you would claim that the russian speaking people can't sit in the front of the bus, I wouldn't be able to refute it other than to express my sincere disbelief.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#55

Post by rsheridan6 »

mb_72 wrote: post #34
Lapsa wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one wants to immigrate here. And actually, I'm happy with that.

Then that could well make you one of ultra-nationalistic Estonians who would rather see their country and language die rather than have it be 'tainted'. I'm half Australian and half Estonian - and have citizenship of both countries. I've worked as a developer in both countries, and currently reside (and work) in Estonia. I see this attitude all the time in Estonia; despite the obvious need for immigration, many peopl…

That's a bit overwrought. A country is not "dying" because its population has declined for two decades. You can't extrapolate that trend all the way to the x axis.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#56

Post by mb_72 »

rsheridan6 wrote: post #55
mb_72 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then that could well make you one of ultra-nationalistic Estonians who would rather see their country and language die rather than have it be 'tainted'. I'm half Australian and half Estonian - and have citizenship of both countries. I've worked as a developer in both countries, and currently reside (and work) in Estonia. I see this attitude all the time in Estonia; despite the obvious need for immigration, many peopl…

That's a bit overwrought. A country is not "dying" because its population has declined for two decades. You can't extrapolate that trend all the way to the x axis.

The population in Estonia is less than 1.3 million, and without a policy change (or some major regional changes, eg war), it is hard to see how the decline will be reversed. Most of the young people here I know can see no future for themselves in Estonia; being part of the EU makes it too easy to up-and-go to another EU state that pays better.

I used the 'dying' comparison as it's an emotional issue for me, as a 'new Estonian'. I hope very much that my pessimistic extrapolation will prove to be incorrect.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#57

Post by mb_72 »

glesica wrote: post #51
slc wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mixing in the non-citizens in a discussion about demographics seems wrong. Most of the non-citizens are people around retirement age - factory workers who were sent in the country from other soviet countries, military families and so on. The cause for reduction in numbers of non-citizens is simple - they died. Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong, because the requirements to acqu…

> Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong I don't know about that, ever been to Narva? Ethnic Russians are, at least to some extent, in a position similar to that of African Americans in the US, but it is easier for them to leave since they just arrived a few decades ago, whereas African Americans have been in the US long enough to have established long-term connections and to have…

You could make that comparison if African Americans had been invaders of the US, but not otherwise.

Narva is a huge problem for the Estonian government - unemployment there is high, and the educational institutions struggle to field teachers who can teach in Estonian. As a result, young people with a Russian background are at a disadvantage with respect to basic language skills.

It's also fair to say there are a number of those in Narva who wish for their 'countrymen' to come rolling over the border again.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#58

Post by derleth »

myth_drannon wrote: post #26
kristaps wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as the riots fueled by ethnic tensions have become much more common You seem to imply that there are already "riots fueled by ethnic tensions", care to point to an example?

Plenty... just a recent one is in Pugachyovo(Russians vs Chechens) The state media tries to suppress the news but Livejournal is full of blog posts with photos.

UPI seems to have some coverage of that one: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2013/07/16/Veterans-para...

(UPI is a fairly major Western news agency. Not as big as the AP, but a long way from being a Livejournal poster.)

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#59

Post by acjohnson55 »

gruseom wrote: post #41
bradleyland wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Points 1 & 2 are facts, and are not in dispute, but point 3 is a question, not a statement. "Don't ignore population growth/decline when examining economic reform." Ok, but what of it? Is anyone ignoring that? If the author believes that the population decline in the Baltics is due to the economic policy therein, then they should find ways to establish that causal relationship, not just point at a graph and say "see…

You're complaining about a causality claim that he never makes.

He only nods his head repeatedly in its general direction.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#60

Post by scarmig »

jeffdavis wrote: post #52
vanderZwan wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what if we narrow it down to population collapse as a result of emigration?

It doesn't seem wildly different from say, Detroit. It looks like the population declined about 30% over the last 20 years[1]. Granted, the population is smaller than the Baltic states, but the population of the Baltic states is also smaller than that of Russia. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Detroit

The Black Death or Detroit. I don't know which is worse.

I keed, I keed: many very smart people are doing really interesting things in Detroit. It's interesting to note, though, the difference between extrinsic and intrinsic causal factors: the Black Death significantly increased real peasant wages and per capita wealth, likely helping the transition from a feudal to capitalist society through dispersing capital more widely. It's a much better situation (for the people who remain) than the Detroit case, where it was low returns to labor that depopulated it.

Estonia is much closer to the Detroit case, it sounds like, which is not necessarily a good thing for its future prospects.

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