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The Baltic Demographic Disaster

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Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#41

Post by gruseom »

bradleyland wrote: post #35
gruseom wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not fair at all. The author's points are: 1) there has been a major population decline in the Baltics; 2) the decline is staggering even by comparison to Russia, which is widely thought to have a problem with population; 3) people making claims about economic reform in the Baltics should not ignore such a major factor.

Points 1 & 2 are facts, and are not in dispute, but point 3 is a question, not a statement. "Don't ignore population growth/decline when examining economic reform." Ok, but what of it? Is anyone ignoring that? If the author believes that the population decline in the Baltics is due to the economic policy therein, then they should find ways to establish that causal relationship, not just point at a graph and say "see…

You're complaining about a causality claim that he never makes.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#42

Post by seanmcdirmid »

gruseom wrote: post #15
stevoski wrote: post #9

This seems an overly simplistic discussion of a single chart. Is it ethnic Russians leaving these countries? Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions?

A blog post will inevitably oversimplify a demographic chart involving millions of people. It's still an interesting chart. The sudden drop in one year, as the article points out, was likely because of the economic crisis. As for whether it's ethnic Russians leaving the country, it's not obvious to me why that is the first thing that matters; most discussions on population and economics don't immediately leap to ethn…

Of course ethnicity matters. If most of the outflow is Russian, then to intentionally ignore that connection is intellectually dishonest.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#43

Post by mjn »

bradleyland wrote: post #35
gruseom wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not fair at all. The author's points are: 1) there has been a major population decline in the Baltics; 2) the decline is staggering even by comparison to Russia, which is widely thought to have a problem with population; 3) people making claims about economic reform in the Baltics should not ignore such a major factor.

Points 1 & 2 are facts, and are not in dispute, but point 3 is a question, not a statement. "Don't ignore population growth/decline when examining economic reform." Ok, but what of it? Is anyone ignoring that? If the author believes that the population decline in the Baltics is due to the economic policy therein, then they should find ways to establish that causal relationship, not just point at a graph and say "see…

> Ok, but what of it? Is anyone ignoring that?

Yes, just about every article that uses the Baltic countries as an economic example to emulate fails to mention this bit.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#44

Post by freehunter »

mb_72 wrote: post #34
Lapsa wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one wants to immigrate here. And actually, I'm happy with that.

Then that could well make you one of ultra-nationalistic Estonians who would rather see their country and language die rather than have it be 'tainted'. I'm half Australian and half Estonian - and have citizenship of both countries. I've worked as a developer in both countries, and currently reside (and work) in Estonia. I see this attitude all the time in Estonia; despite the obvious need for immigration, many peopl…

I actually do like the Baltic states, and wouldn't mind moving. I don't speak Estonian, but I do know a bit of Finnish due to having a Finnish roommate in university. I've long dreamed of moving to several EU nations, but every one of the countries I could see myself living in makes it so hard to get a visa. I'm more used to American immigration policy, which is a lot more "open door" than the EU countries I adore.

From the little time I've spent in Finland though, I've seen a lot of this type of attitude. People are generally happy to see visitors as long as the visitors don't try to speak their language or talk about moving to the country. Tallinn seems like a nice place, though.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#45

Post by gruseom »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #42
gruseom wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A blog post will inevitably oversimplify a demographic chart involving millions of people. It's still an interesting chart. The sudden drop in one year, as the article points out, was likely because of the economic crisis. As for whether it's ethnic Russians leaving the country, it's not obvious to me why that is the first thing that matters; most discussions on population and economics don't immediately leap to ethn…

Of course ethnicity matters. If most of the outflow is Russian, then to intentionally ignore that connection is intellectually dishonest.

Of course there's no question of intentionally ignoring anything. My question is about the economics. Presumably, the economic significance of population decline has to do with its effect on GDP, growth, and the like. It's not obvious (is it?) which of these questions have answers that change depending on the ethnicity of who comes or goes.

There's also the question of whether the outflow does in fact consist mostly of Russians. Is there data on this? No one has presented any here, and the various comments in the thread contradict one another.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#46

Post by jvrossb »

slc wrote: post #27
sologoub wrote: post #21

The Baltic demographic situation is indeed very complex. The article does little justice to this. Someone has already raised the question of ethnic Russians and other non-Baltic origin leaving these countries. This section of the population actually have a very strong incentive to leave - they are considered non-citizen and have none of the EU privileges[1]. According to the same Wikipedia article, Latvia alone start…

Mixing in the non-citizens in a discussion about demographics seems wrong. Most of the non-citizens are people around retirement age - factory workers who were sent in the country from other soviet countries, military families and so on. The cause for reduction in numbers of non-citizens is simple - they died. Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong, because the requirements to acqu…

That doesn't sound right - if I speak fluent Russian and I'm older than 15, it's probably easier for me to move to a Russian-speaking country (where I might have family) than learn Latvian. Especially if my social circle in Latvia is exclusively Russian speaking.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#47

Post by slc »

jvrossb wrote: post #46
slc wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mixing in the non-citizens in a discussion about demographics seems wrong. Most of the non-citizens are people around retirement age - factory workers who were sent in the country from other soviet countries, military families and so on. The cause for reduction in numbers of non-citizens is simple - they died. Also claiming that they have an incentive to leave the country seems wrong, because the requirements to acqu…

That doesn't sound right - if I speak fluent Russian and I'm older than 15, it's probably easier for me to move to a Russian-speaking country (where I might have family) than learn Latvian. Especially if my social circle in Latvia is exclusively Russian speaking.

If you're 15, then you have already received free government funded latvian language courses for 9 years in school. It's part of the curriculum. You'd have to be especially lazy to not be able to pass the citizenship exams.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#48

Post by throwaway_yy2Di »

stevoski wrote: post #9

This seems an overly simplistic discussion of a single chart. Is it ethnic Russians leaving these countries? Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions?

Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions?

That seems to be the case. This is from the same source as these population figures (Eurostat):

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index....

In footnote (3) it says emigration figures for Lithuania -- the largest of the Baltics -- are overstated in 2010 and 2011. Those years include emigrants who had left in previous years but hadn't been counted.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#49

Post by seanmcdirmid »

gruseom wrote: post #45
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course ethnicity matters. If most of the outflow is Russian, then to intentionally ignore that connection is intellectually dishonest.

Of course there's no question of intentionally ignoring anything. My question is about the economics. Presumably, the economic significance of population decline has to do with its effect on GDP, growth, and the like. It's not obvious (is it?) which of these questions have answers that change depending on the ethnicity of who comes or goes. There's also the question of whether the outflow does in fact consist mostly…

It would be extremely useful to know if the outflow are a lot of say "aging Russians" or "young Estonian/Latvians", as each would have extremely different implications. The fact that the information is missing in the article means we can only speculate. Perhaps the information is obscured or those statistics aren't collected, but without knowing, it is much more difficult to find the cause and ultimately come up with a solution.

Re: The Baltic Demographic Disaster

#50

Post by atsaloli »

kristaps wrote: post #24
sologoub wrote: post #21

The Baltic demographic situation is indeed very complex. The article does little justice to this. Someone has already raised the question of ethnic Russians and other non-Baltic origin leaving these countries. This section of the population actually have a very strong incentive to leave - they are considered non-citizen and have none of the EU privileges[1]. According to the same Wikipedia article, Latvia alone start…

> as the riots fueled by ethnic tensions have become much more common You seem to imply that there are already "riots fueled by ethnic tensions", care to point to an example?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronze_Night
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