Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#81

Post by marvin » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:19 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #53

rayiner wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is more "secret sauce" in Tesla than in SpaceX. SpaceX is doing great implementations of pretty conservative designs. In any case, both are "product" companies and benefit from patents less than "design" companies. Contrast SpaceX with Mojave Aerospace Ventures (the investment vehicle that owns the Spaceship One IP developed by Scaled Composites).

Everyone has criticized you based on how great SpaceX is. I'll go the other way. Tesla at its heart is "put a ton of batteries which were developed by other companies into an electric motor that drives a car." People have been trying this formula for over a century. Tesla happened to do it when battery technology was just good enough to work, with really good styling.

In fact, Tesla's approach to battery packs is revolutionary - it goes completely against the status quo in the same way that Google's use of commodity hardware went against the status quo in the late 90s. Tesla packs use about 7000 commodity li-ion cells which are arranged in a pack with individual software-controlled charge management.

A user on the Tesla Motors forum pointed out that if Tesla actually implements their battery patents, the battery pack which was displayed in a National Geographic documentary (pixelated, of course) was in fact a fake.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#82

Post by maxerickson » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:20 PM UTC

pudquick wrote: post #67

criley2 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth mentioning that their "less conservative" VTVL rocket is currently hitting about 10% of the DC-X's ~3100m record. While the grasshopper is very cool, the concept of a VTVL rocket is not new. Hell, the Apollo Lunar Module technically landed and took off afterwards, as well!

While you may be right about VTVL not being new, this is disingenuous at best: > Hell, the Apollo Lunar Module technically landed and took off afterwards, as well! It landed and launched in a relatively airless (windless) environment at 1/6th Earth's gravity ... and when it launched it left half of itself behind! "Technically" indeed.

It's a qualified (as you are clearly aware, the word technically) note about an earlier parallel. Calling it disingenuous is obnoxious.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#83

Post by weisser » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:22 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #53

rayiner wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is more "secret sauce" in Tesla than in SpaceX. SpaceX is doing great implementations of pretty conservative designs. In any case, both are "product" companies and benefit from patents less than "design" companies. Contrast SpaceX with Mojave Aerospace Ventures (the investment vehicle that owns the Spaceship One IP developed by Scaled Composites).

Everyone has criticized you based on how great SpaceX is. I'll go the other way. Tesla at its heart is "put a ton of batteries which were developed by other companies into an electric motor that drives a car." People have been trying this formula for over a century. Tesla happened to do it when battery technology was just good enough to work, with really good styling.

>Tesla happened to do it when battery technology was just good enough to work

You say that as if it was coincidental...

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#84

Post by podperson » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:22 PM UTC

pudquick wrote: post #67

criley2 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth mentioning that their "less conservative" VTVL rocket is currently hitting about 10% of the DC-X's ~3100m record. While the grasshopper is very cool, the concept of a VTVL rocket is not new. Hell, the Apollo Lunar Module technically landed and took off afterwards, as well!

While you may be right about VTVL not being new, this is disingenuous at best: > Hell, the Apollo Lunar Module technically landed and took off afterwards, as well! It landed and launched in a relatively airless (windless) environment at 1/6th Earth's gravity ... and when it launched it left half of itself behind! "Technically" indeed.

In particular the rocket system that landed was discarded and a new rocket system took off, so I don't think it's even "technical". It's like calling a car that rolls off a ferry an "amphibious" vehicle.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#85

Post by arkades » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:22 PM UTC

TheAnimus wrote: post #56

temp453463343 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rogain

Slightly O/T. A buddy of mine was saying last night that his lady suggested looking at a hair regrowth product, on inspecting the packaging and marketing material he found the wonderful claim: "Up-to 4 times more effective than a placebo in clinical testing"

When (real) clinical trials are constructed against placebo, the statistical testing is constructed accordingly. If you were comparing against an existing drug, for instance, you might be testing to show it's equal-to or equal-or-better-than (perhaps your new drug is cheaper, or works on a different metabolic pathway, or has fewer side effects, that make it worth adding to the formulary if it otherwise has equal effectiveness). If an existing treatment doesn't exist, you'd compare against placebo, but now the stats testing would be specifically for superiority.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#86

Post by omni » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:23 PM UTC

dasloop wrote: post #55

Being cynical: promoting a futuristic tech to block the development of the proposed high speed rail.

If you have any evidence that Elon Musk of all people is deserving of such cynicism, I genuinely would like to see it.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#87

Post by abstractbill » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:26 PM UTC

netcan wrote: post #77

When I read PG's essay earlier today, I thought of hyperloop when I read this footnote: "There may even be an inverse correlation between launch magnitude and success. The only launches I remember are famous flops like the Segway and Google Wave. Wave is a particularly alarming example, because I think it was actually a great idea that was killed partly by its overdone launch." I can actually recall the launch of som…

Though I think pg's advice is exactly right for things that don't need to be started with a big bang, I don't think it applies universally. I can't imagine, for example, the Apollo Program being successful without rallying a huge number of people behind the idea beforehand.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#88

Post by dragonwriter » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:27 PM UTC

the_watcher wrote: post #36

jvm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he specifically wants California to build this instead of wasting $100bn on the HSR project. I'm sure he'll be open to building hyperloops elsewhere as well.

If he can stop California from lighting that $100bn on fire chasing HSR from Bakersfield to Fresno, then this will all be worth it. I voted against all of those propositions, but I'd have reconsidered if you told me Musk would be the one playing with the money.

> If he can stop California from lighting that $100bn on fire chasing HSR from Bakersfield to Fresno,

$100 billion is an approximation of an old estimate of the total system cost (which includes HSR with terminii in the San Diego, LA, Sacramento, and San Francisco, and a upgrades to a number of existing intercity and commuter rail systems that would connect to HSR) -- the most recent estimate is much lower at $68.4 billion. The Bakersfield to Fresno line is a ~$3 billion first construction segment which will initially be used to improve exisiting Central Valley heavy rail passenger service and which will eventually be part of the HSR initial operating segment from Merced to Palmdale.

No one is lighting $100 billion on fire chasing HSR from Bakersfield to Fresno.

For more, see http://www.hsr.ca.gov/About/Business_Plans/2012_Business_Pla...

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#89

Post by foobarqux » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:32 PM UTC

TheAnimus wrote: post #56

temp453463343 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rogain

Slightly O/T. A buddy of mine was saying last night that his lady suggested looking at a hair regrowth product, on inspecting the packaging and marketing material he found the wonderful claim: "Up-to 4 times more effective than a placebo in clinical testing"

There are hair loss products, such as Propecia, that are effective. Unfortunately the side effects can be severe: low testosterone, loss of libido, infertility, erectile dysfunction.

Anyone considering hair loss medication should do some concerted research.

Re: Elon Musk to publish hyperloop design by August

#90

Post by qwertzlcoatl » Mon, Jul 15, 2013, 4:34 PM UTC

drpgq wrote: post #2

I'm always surprised that more billionaires don't try interesting off the wall projects when they have so much money. What's the fun of having it, if you can't have the occasional mad scientist moment.

Maybe they want to own a building for each one of their childrens children.