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Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

simulacrum.cc

581–590 of 681 posts

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#581

I see no one in this active discussion has mentioned yet Charles Murray's book In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State, http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/0844742236 in which Murray goes into detail about how much a program of guaranteed income for everyone would cost in the United States, and some probable effects that would have on everyone's everyday behavior. I read the book a year or two after it was publi…

  One key to thinking about how the Plan [improves quality 
  of life] is the universality of the grant. What matters is 
  not just that a lone individual has $10,000 a year, but 
  that everyone has $10,000 a year and everyone knows that 
  everyone else has that resource. - Charles Murray
This is the most important part of any UBI scheme. It's the "U" part - universality. Life is so much less stressful when the need for competition is removed from those who don't desire to compete.

Case in point, you'll be much less likely to be shot and killed for the contents of your wallet when both you and the mugger start from an equal footing. It's the mismatch between the mugger's means and his expectation of yours that motivates his malicious intent. When everyone gets a UBI, you straighten the Lorenz curve, and everyone gets closer to equality.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (28% income tax, 2% medicare, 6% social security) This year, the 28% tax bracket for a single individual stars at $87,850 taxable income. The Social Security cap is $113,700, and the Social Security tax is levied on all income below this. The individual standard deduction is $6100 and the personal exemption is $3900. That means that for an individual, a 28% income tax rate means income is above $97,850 while paying…

> That means that for an individual, a 28% income tax rate means income is above $97,850 Actually, its a lot higher than that, because marginal rates aren't overall rates.

Sure, but I assumed oijaf888 was talking about marginal rates on income, which affect whether you want your marginal dollar to be salary or investment income. If we start talking about overall rates, there is no plausible way at all to claim that "most people" pay an overall Federal rate higher than 15%.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#583
post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve Reading the summary at the top of the Wiki entry, it's already not surprising the book has been labeled racist. Any book that discusses race, inheritance, and socioeconomic class always gets called racist.

That's an incredibly cheap dismissal that's simply not true. There are plenty of books that look at those issues from a humanist perspective. The Bell Curve is labeled racist because it is myopic about the existence and importance of race. Race is not a valid scientific categorization: it is not based on statistical grouping of DNA, or anything concrete other than "people used to be assholes to foreigners." There is…

"There is an order of magnitude more genetic + cultural diversity among each race than there are between the races."

Yawn...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Genetic_Diversity:_Lewont...

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#584
post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an incredibly cheap dismissal that's simply not true Examples, please, of books that investigate socioeconomic status & race that have not been called racist? Because I can't think of any. By the way, I'm not talking about literary explorations of race like "Huckleberry Finn". Although that was called racist too. There are orders of magnitude more genetic [...] diversity among each race than there are between…

The distribution of genetic variants within and among human populations are impossible to describe succinctly because of the difficulty of defining a "population," the clinal nature of variation, and heterogeneity across the genome (Long and Kittles 2003). In general, however, an average of 85% of genetic variation exists within local populations, ~7% is between local populations within the same continent, and ~8% of…

"The distribution of genetic variants within and among human populations are impossible to describe succinctly because of the difficulty of defining a "population," the clinal nature of variation, and heterogeneity across the genome (Long and Kittles 2003)."

This is completely f'n stupid...

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2010/12/to-classify-h...

[edit]

BTW, I find it funny that you're wiki-scholaring using old sources that date back to before we learned all non-african humans have some neanderthal dna in them.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the rationale in that argument, but I think one of the things you're missing is that companies won't just automatically raise their prices in unison. Smart companies may hold their prices constant and take a per unit profit hit to capture more share, allowing them to maintain or even increase overall profit. They may introduce higher margin products and/or develop entirely new strategies or lines of business. A…

If the market has reached the pre-tax equilibrium, would an added evenly-applied tax change competitiveness at all? I guess I don't see how that would change anything at all. If you and I are competitors, and we both pay the same tax rate, that's already factored into our businesses in some way. Sliding it up or down an equal amount on both of us won't change the me vs. you competitiveness right? I get what you're sa…

>would an added evenly-applied tax change competitiveness at all?

Any variable can change competitiveness, as companies may differ in their responses to it.

For example, look at fuel prices for airlines. When they increase across the board, some airlines may raise prices, others may cut back on services offered, still others may add baggage fees, some may focus on increasing volume on more profitable routes, some may lower prices and heavily promote their lower fares to gain market share, while others may risk prepaying for fuel at current prices or hedging with shorts, etc.

Point being, of course, that the same change that hits every competitor will produce different responses and effects. This can completely alter the competitive landscape. And, it's virtually a guarantee that you won't simply get some uniform, across the board price increase.

If we don't acknowledge this, then we are looking at the change in a vacuum, completely insulated from the realities of free market behavior.

>I could make the argument that the consumers are willing to pay more because they suddenly have more in their pockets

Yeah, I think I actually mentioned that in another post (too much risk/work to view another post mid-reply on this tablet). Anyway, it could definitely be the case that consumers can bear more, however, it is not neccesarily 1:1. That is, there are a lot of variables that might impact whether they'd be willing to spend that extra money on that product. Also, there is still some price that the market simply won't bear for a given product, irrespective of the extra money in consumer pockets. In any case, there is certainly no guarantee that companies can simply pass on the additional cost.

And, it can also be the case that some companies can, but others cannot, given their prior prices.

Just too many variables.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. Everyone I've ever seen argue this has had strong opinions about how other (more greedy and venal) people would act. They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. I suggest, instead, we try specifics. Given a basic income, I wouldn't be lazy. Nor would…

They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. The counter argument would be the existence of industries that people will already not work in. For example Italy has a 38.5% youth unemployment rate. It also can't get enough workers for the garment industry. So why don't the youth of Italy want these jobs? Maybe the work is seen as menial (so a cultural…

It's worth keeping in mind that a number of the people who would show up in statistics as not working would be devoting themselves to activities that are socially beneficial but not currently economically viable: community art projects, gardens, mentoring children, cultivating time-intensive abilities that are inhibited by the archaic idea that the only worthwhile way to exist is to work 40+ hours per week. I know that's what I'd do.

I'd also like to travel, and would be more than willing to work a sane amount of hours to contribute to the basic functioning of society in exchange for the means to do so. With respect to the Italy example -- raise wages enough and I'd bet the shortage would disappear. If the societal need is great enough, the prices will reflect that (maybe we don't actually need more garments?).

The basic functioning of society would need to be redefined a bit -- perpetual economic growth is neither sustainable nor desirable at least while it comes at the expense of the environment, or social and medical well-being (obesity, depression, etc).

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. Everyone I've ever seen argue this has had strong opinions about how other (more greedy and venal) people would act. They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. I suggest, instead, we try specifics. Given a basic income, I wouldn't be lazy. Nor would…

They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. The counter argument would be the existence of industries that people will already not work in. For example Italy has a 38.5% youth unemployment rate. It also can't get enough workers for the garment industry. So why don't the youth of Italy want these jobs? Maybe the work is seen as menial (so a cultural…

It's worth keeping in mind that a number of the people who would show up in statistics as not working would be devoting themselves to activities that are socially beneficial but not currently economically viable: community art projects, gardens, mentoring children, cultivating time-intensive abilities that are inhibited by the archaic idea that the only worthwhile way to exist is to work 40+ hours per week. I know that's what I'd do.

I'd also like to travel, and would be more than willing to work a sane amount of hours to contribute to the basic functioning of society in exchange for the means to do so. With respect to the Italy example -- raise wages enough and I'd bet the shortage would disappear. If the societal need is great enough, the prices will reflect that (maybe we don't actually need more garments?).

The basic functioning of society would need to be redefined a bit -- perpetual economic growth is neither sustainable nor desirable at least while it comes at the expense of the environment, or social and medical well-being (obesity, depression, etc).

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the author of the overtly racist Bell Curve.

I think there could be a better explanation for this: There is an impression that your IQ score is a fixed thing that you're born with, but in reality you can "study" for the IQ test and get better scores at it. There is also the whole issue that IQ scores have been rapidly rising in the past few decades. This might just mean that IQ score merely acts as a proxy for socioeconomic status and education level and a bunc…

I think your explanations are largely incorrect. I’m currently partway through reading The Bell Curve; it investigates a number of things people often attribute to socioeconomic status and tries to compare the effects of socioeconomic status and intelligence.

An IQ score is literally your score on an IQ test; I think it’s more correct to talk about g (“general factor”) which is the principal component of intelligence you get if you measure a group of people on a battery of tests, and is the most predictive way to summarize an individual’s mental ability in a single number. A good IQ test is highly “g-loaded”, that is, it does a good job predicting someone’s scores on other tests that are g-loaded to some degree.

Intelligence, as with most traits, is influenced to some degree by genetics and to some degree by environments. This can be (approximately) measured by comparing differences in intelligence between people of varying degrees of relatedness (somewhere between being identical twins and being randomly selected people), who grew up either in the same families or separated. Usually people are interested in pairs of siblings or identical twins where one was raised by families of different socioeconomic statuses. When The Bell Curve was written, the authors said the consensus was that intelligence is between 40%–80% genetic, but I think it’s now thought to be on the high end of that. Intelligence is actually more influenced by genetics in adults than in children, which is the opposite of what you’d expect if environment actually did have a large effect.

When you say you can “study” for an IQ test, I think this is kind of tautological; e.g., you could memorize the answers to the hard problems, but intelligence is largely stable through life. It’s true that IQ scores have been rising for several decades (the Flynn effect), but I don’t think it’s ever been explained really well (maybe fewer people growing up in damaging environments?), it’s not clear whether or not people are actually getting smarter or they were just scoring better for some reason, and I think there’s evidence that the trend is starting to stall or maybe even decline since the mid 1990s.

Intelligence and socioeconomic status are certainly correlated, but I think it would actually be more correct to say “socioeconomic status is a proxy for intelligence” than the other way around. If intelligence is mostly genetic, with a small environmental factor, as it seems to be, and more intelligent people make more money on average, which they do, then socioeconomic status is certainly largely influenced by intelligence, and the heritability of intelligence at least partially explains why social mobility isn’t higher than it is. It’s probably the case that there’s some intelligence benefit from environmental factors resulting from socioeconomic status, but you can’t just try to throw out all the differences correlated with socioeconomic status, because there’s certainly some (likely more) influence in the other direction.

If measured average test score differences exist between genetic groups of people (they do), these differences again have to be some amount genetic in origin and some amount environmental. The amounts for between-group variation are probably similar to the amounts for within-group variation, but there are reasons why they might not be exactly the same. People often claim the tests are biased; what you can do to rule this out is to look at individual questions that certain groups of people get wrong more often, since it’s more likely that individual items are biased than that every question is biased by exactly the same amount. You can also look at things the tests predict, and see if they have the same predictive power across groups. For example, if someone claims the SAT is biased against racial minorities, you can look at college students in different racial groups and their SAT scores and see if the students in different groups with different average test scores do better or worse in college classes (I don’t know a good source off the top of my head, but to the best of my knowledge, the SAT is equally predictive across racial groups).

I strongly agree that the people claiming that psychometrics researchers have a racist agenda to prove white (or Asian?) superiority have a political agenda themselves, whereas the research in question seems to me pretty statistical, honest, and carried out without regard to the conclusions, and the researchers seem like they have to be very brave to carry out (or at least publicize) this research in the current political climate.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#589
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So a few basic strategies for maximizing UBI: 1) Get educated, find a job, work. 2) Produce more children, pool financial benefits that a single household is eligible for. 3) Vote for politicians who promise to increase UBI. Long-term which option do you think the populace will go for?

First one. I would assume UBI is only available to adults. The third one isn't really much of an option since it assumes that politics is more black and white than what it actually is. 50 shades of grey and counting. And of course people realize that UBI has it's drawbacks too.

That goes against the principle of requiring only residency or citizenship, why would you kick children out of it? Wouldn't you then need to provide a separate welfare program for needy children?

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because the basic income would be paid for by a tax. Tax revenues increases with inflation too.

And that increase in tax revenue will be offset by an increase in prices, which in turn will be offset by an increase in the UBI, ... To expound on the point, absent other economic factors, an inflation-adjusted UBI pretty much guarantees that next year's inflation will be greater than this year's inflation.

I think you are falling for Zeno's paradox. There exists an equilibrium with a constant percentage rate of tax redistributed as a lump sum that will not affect inflation at all. If the lump sum is larger than the tax revenue, there will be inflation, and if it is smaller there will be deflation. Just look at the total money supply. Prices in general are not directly affected because this is a redistribution of income.
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