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The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

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Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#31
post #5
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, just the people who decide who gets them: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9873

Didn't Steve Levitt prove this wrong?

If you are an economist (a field is already more an ideology / spin machine than science -- the science part in it is basically math), and you are more into entertainment (e.g making the NYT best selling list of shallow books) than science, then you can "prove" a lot of things, without actually proving anything.

Start with a few unexamined wrong assumptions, select the data that fit your conclusion, dress them up with anecdotes and prose, and there you go!

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#32
post #23
post #4

Minimum wage law.

Hardly. Lowering the minimum wage isn't going to make an unskilled and lazy teenager useful. We have programs for this: * http://www.jobcorps.gov/home.aspx -- This provides room, board, a stipend suitable for a teenager with no expenses, and vocational training for those under 25 years old (i.e, teens) * http://www.fafsa.ed.gov/ -- There's really no disputing this one. Any one of them can hoof it over to the nearest…

I found myself wondering about this as well. Some of this is quite likely legitimate unemployment, but I'm wondering what percent is laziness.

That said, it's pretty easy as a middle-income white guy to cast judgement on people living in a situation I can't even dream of understanding. This is a pretty complex subject.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#33
I see a lot of peripheral discussion - But what do you think about the article? As an investor, I see the proposed solution as very interesting. I feel as though there is no reason that the funding effort cannot be entirely crowdsourced for a company trying to raise funds.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#34
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be the case, but what should the job prospects for teenagers who just dropped out of high school be ideally?

A minimum wage job?

There is no market demand for unskilled labor at $7.25 an hour. Even if you removed minimum wage laws, you would still need to pay people enough to eat and stay functional in the workplace, which nowadays I imagine isn't much lower than $7.25, especially considering the only practical unskilled labor roles today are physical toiling, since almost everything else can be very easily automated away, so you need to fix their broken bones.

So I'd argue the open market in the US don't have enough demand for physical human labor at the bare minimum cost to keep people alive. The consequence is a lot of people are just not working. We have nothing for them to do at the given price that anyone is willing to pay.

So if the market has no unmet demands for toil, then guaranteeing a minimum wage job means you are wasting that persons time on some task that nobody needs done, at least not for the price he is paid, and you are not only biasing away the labor market you are wasting that persons time on some task that isn't valuable to be done.

Even if you have some market demand, the given rate is dropping annually due to the cheaper and more efficient automation of physical duties. I guarantee you once automated vehicles are entering the market and are legally allowed, there will be an absurd displacement of menial labor driving delivery trucks.

Other industries rife for that kind of displacement are farming (considering most farming tasks are procedural, automated farming machinery is practical, even if it needs high precision to harvest using computer vision), retail (with automated vehicles, you might as well buy all your goods online, shipped directly to your home, with no need for an intermediary store except in rare conditions like furniture and cars where you want to "sample" in person the goods), and construction (if you plant factory made homes, might as well build a foundation machine to excavate and lay a foundation without human intervention).

And then you have no use for human meat sacks moving their arms. We are already approaching that - it is why this problem even exists today. What happens when we get there?

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#35
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An unconditional basic income is probably a better way to go than a guaranteed minimum wage job. (Of course you could set the basic income at whatever a minimum wage job would provide.)

Offering money to drop out of high school would cause the drop out rate to increase further. Besides, I get the feeling that most high school drop outs aren't really looking for work. This is a hard problem to solve.

The money would be unconditional, not in exchange for dropping out of high school. You may as well say that soup kitchens are offering soup to drop out of high school and are causing the drop out rate to increase further.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#36
post #22
post #4

Minimum wage law.

If minimum wage law was such a determining factor why is it countries with a higher minimum wages than the USA have lower (including youth) unemployment rates. I'll give you my take on this. What creates employment is consumption and people earning next to nothing don’t consume. So if you cut the minimum wage all you'll end up doing is reduce the overall consumption, which in turn will drive up unemployment. The trut…

The countries with the highest minimum wages are the democratic socialist states of Europe which all have much higher youth unemployment rates than here. One of the lowest youth unemployment rates in Europe is Germany, which has no minimum wage law.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#37

Honest question: Have we, as a society, looked into possibly supplying people with short-term loans, with a guaranteed open position for someone at a place in more rural parts of America? Originally, I was born in Fresno, CA. We didn't have the most healthy job rate when times were good, let alone once the recession hit. I spent five years looking for a job- and didn't find one until I got the help of a friend online…

You had a computer, and it took you five years to find A job?

I find that hard to believe.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#38
This seems like another argument for Basic Income. A lot of young, jobless people (males especially) isn't only a moral problem, but it's a sociological problem. The young jobless commit more crimes, are more likely to join gangs and are generally more of a drain on society. Giving them an income would remove the social pressure to constantly look for jobs that aren't actually there. People could focus on internships and other productive activities without having to resort to selling drugs to make a living.

Short of full on Basic Income, we could at least continue a much larger version of the government teen jobs program mentioned in the article. Money given to low income youth tends to find it's way back into the economy quickly. Much of the money from a government jobs program would be spent at the mall or walmart, some of which would end up in the hands of vendors and suppliers, which could get spent on apps and web services run by hn users. In short, poor people don't save a lot. Some percentage of our tax money will come back to us.

Capitalism is a great system, but it isn't perfect. The best predictor of future income is parental income. Direct action is the best way to break the cycle.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#39
post #21

Honest question: Have we, as a society, looked into possibly supplying people with short-term loans, with a guaranteed open position for someone at a place in more rural parts of America? Originally, I was born in Fresno, CA. We didn't have the most healthy job rate when times were good, let alone once the recession hit. I spent five years looking for a job- and didn't find one until I got the help of a friend online…

Sounds almost like a modern homesteading act. Interesting idea.

I wonder what fraction of the (let's call it) hopelessly unemployed would take up such an option if it's offered to everyone who wants it. As a whole our society has become much more entitled than back in those days, and the way in which we've been brought up, I wonder if some would see it as patronizing and reject the offer, even if it really would have meant a better future for them.

Then again I have been incredible throughout my life, winning the birth lottery pretty big and probably can't hope to truly understand the psychology and desires of much of my own very diverse country. Maybe I am wrong. Hopefully I am wrong. After all I can only really see this world through my own biased bullshit perspective.

Re: The Jobless Rate for Poor Black Teen Dropouts is 95%

#40
post #23
post #4

Minimum wage law.

Hardly. Lowering the minimum wage isn't going to make an unskilled and lazy teenager useful. We have programs for this: * http://www.jobcorps.gov/home.aspx -- This provides room, board, a stipend suitable for a teenager with no expenses, and vocational training for those under 25 years old (i.e, teens) * http://www.fafsa.ed.gov/ -- There's really no disputing this one. Any one of them can hoof it over to the nearest…

Are you saying that the high school dropout rate is 1%? Because that's not anywhere close to being correct. It's over 25% in the United States according to this: http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/high-sch...
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