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Armchair air crash investigator

momav.me

41–50 of 154 posts

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#41
post #6

Thank you for your armchair analysis, but I will wait for the NTSB's report.

indeed, which will take ~2 years

They'll make a preliminary, primarily "factual" report within days, or weeks. This will be based on the FDR, Quick Access Recorder, statements by crew, passengers and witnesses to the NTSB investigators.

Even though I'm a former pilot, I've not made any posts prior to this one, because I didn't want to speculate.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#42
post #22

Sorry to go offtopic here, but the images seem to be used without any credits. The first one was taken by David Eun ( https://path.com/p/1lwrZb )

Well, the whole blog design is very gray-area 'theft' of Medium's design.

Oh, I was actually thinking I was reading a post on Medium.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#43
post #34

The accuracy of something like flighradar24 at low altitudes (where the difference between a landing and a crash is a matter of feet) is not high enough, and the data reporting interval is not small enough, to be used to do more than guess what happened. The article gives 3-4 data points per minute . You can't look at that data and draw any conclusions about the motion of an aircraft. It's fun speculating, but please…

I would hope the difference between a landing and a crash is a little more than 'feet' otherwise we'd have a lot more crashes. Maybe the difference between a BAD landing and a crash is only feet :)

A typical airliner approach is a 3 degree angle touching down at 1000ft past the end of the runway. That means that they pass over the threshold at about 150ft. Let's say there's another 1000ft past that before things get problematic (at SFO it's considerably less, I believe), that means that the airliner passes over the dangerous bit at about 300ft when operating normally, and 300ft lower would cause a crash.

This isn't normally a problem, because detecting and ensuring that 300ft difference is not really hard.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#44
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pilots will actually very rarely use the autoland functionality (apart from when weather, e.g. low visibility, requires it, and also to ensure that they're current with the procedure). They'll use the autopilot for the initial part of the approach, but then when visual with the runway will often disconnect it in order to fly the actual landing manually (still following the indications on the flight director, which ar…

Why is this? Can they do a better (in terms of passenger comfort) job landing manually?

I couldn't say in terms of comfort, but they need to be able to perform a manual landing (for example if certain equipment on board is not functioning correctly, or the airport is not equipped for autolanding) so it makes sense that they would take every opportunity to keep their skills current. There's probably also a sense of pride in wanting to carry out a smooth landing by hand - especially given that most of the climb/cruise/descent will likely have been controlled by the autopilot.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#45
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pilots will actually very rarely use the autoland functionality (apart from when weather, e.g. low visibility, requires it, and also to ensure that they're current with the procedure). They'll use the autopilot for the initial part of the approach, but then when visual with the runway will often disconnect it in order to fly the actual landing manually (still following the indications on the flight director, which ar…

Why is this? Can they do a better (in terms of passenger comfort) job landing manually?

No, autoland is pretty good. But there are two factors that cause pilots to land manually most of the time: 1) pilots think they are better at handling last-minute unexpected contingencies like wind sheer or bird strikes (and they may well be right about that) and 2) pilots don't want to give the Powers that Be any additional data to suggest that they aren't actually needed to fly a plane at all. The fact of the matter is that there are no technological barriers to making aircraft completely autonomous, but pilots want the world to remain in denial about this for as long as possible for the sake of their job security. (FWIW, I'm an instrument-rated private pilot.)

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#46
post #13

"The final bit of information is interesting. It shows a positive rate of climb – 120 feet per minute to be exact, which for a jet airliner, is very slow. For reference, at takeoff the vertical speed is most often +1500 feet per minute. Another interesting bit of information is the aircraft’s airspeed; 85 kts – for a Boeing 777 that is (and I’m guessing here) probably way below stall speed." That is actually expected…

It's been said, but I want to add weight to it: this is not at all expected. You never climb during a normal landing.

I'd wager that 120fpm climb reading to be due to a measurement error of some kind, not actually something that really happened.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#48
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this? Can they do a better (in terms of passenger comfort) job landing manually?

No, autoland is pretty good. But there are two factors that cause pilots to land manually most of the time: 1) pilots think they are better at handling last-minute unexpected contingencies like wind sheer or bird strikes (and they may well be right about that) and 2) pilots don't want to give the Powers that Be any additional data to suggest that they aren't actually needed to fly a plane at all. The fact of the matt…

I can't imagine anyone stepping onto an autonomous passenger aircraft for a long time, not until long after cars and smaller commercial aircraft are regularly driven using computers only. And even that seems like a stretch. I don't see how pilots use or non-use of some automated systems is going to influence popular opinion on that one way or another. But maybe there's a perception among pilots that it will.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#49

Curious as to why autopilot isn't being used to land planes yet. My understanding is that pilots can choose to use it to land, but only do so when visibility is very low. (ex: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOFs-oa-bbc )

The autopilot requires the ILS to land the plane. If the ILS is inoperative, it can't autoland. However pilots do still land planes to keep their skills honed.

Re: Armchair air crash investigator

#50
post #2

I heard a reporter on TV reporting that the airplane was doing cartwheels on the runway, and I pictured the semi-truck being flipped over in Batman. And then I thought what the hell could have done that? Fishtailed makes more sense, thanks for the clarification.

CNN just released video footage they have of the actual crash.

The plane (from what I see) after crashing does a near 360-degree turn with the right wing high up – in fact you can see that the plane is almost nose down-tail up which almost makes it look like it was cartwheeling.

Very surprising revelation, I really did not expect an airframe to remain as intact as it did after going through that.

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